DUP Threatens to Unite With Labour
The latest Brexit irony is DUP Threatens to Unite with Labour to Back Customs Union Amendment.
Should MPs back an amendment for customs union this week, Mr Johnson could be forced to pull the legislation required to ensure the UK leaves the European Union on time.
On Sunday night a senior DUP figure told The Daily Telegraph there were “multiple scenarios with multiple options for us to resist Johnson’s anti-UK deal,” adding: “It will be parliamentary guerrilla warfare.”
The warning came after Sir Keir Starmer, Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary, invited the DUP to meet to discuss amendments to the withdrawal agreement bill, stating that the party’s “door is open”.
Revived From the Dead
This is Theresa May’s deal revived from the deal.
Had DUP been on board previously, her deal likely would have passed.
Whilst MPs have rejected a customs union five times this year during two rounds of so-called indicative votes, in April a plan put forward by Ken Clarke, the father of the House of Commons, came within three votes of passing.
Wrecking Amendments
Eurointelligence discusses “Wrecking Amendments” in this morning’s discussion.
Attempts by UK MPs to frustrate a legally binding Brexit majority are continuing this week, following on from the success of the Letwin amendment on Saturday. The parliament has no majority for a second referendum – that much is very clear now. But the wreckers are now resorting to another tactic. The most promising route for them is a customs union amendment – which they plan to attach to this week’s scheduled vote on the withdrawal agreement bill. That amendment may even attract the votes of the DUP as it would address their specific problem of a formal customs border along the Irish Sea.
Logical Nonsense
The purpose of this amendment, despite what it says, is not to produce a customs union. It is to frustrate Johnson’s Brexit deal. A customs union amendment could well command majority support. It might be supported by the group of Labour MPs around Stephen Kinnock, as well as some of the Tory MPs. We think it is even possible that Boris Johnson may get his wafer-thin majority in favour of his deal, and that MPs also support the amendment. Of course, this does not make sense logically: you cannot simultaneously have a customs union, and not a customs union. But logic does not come into this decision.
Another 2.5 Years?!
This could in theory go on for another two-and-a-half years. The government could decide to take a wrecking amendment on the chin and proceed with ratification on that basis. We have not established whether this amendment would allow the UK government to proceed with ratification of the withdrawal treaty, or whether ratification is state-contingent.
This important issue is not addressed in the media reports we have been monitoring. The withdrawal agreement does force a specific version of a future relationship. A customs union will still be possible without a customs union amendment. And a Canada-style free trade agreement will be possible with a customs union amendment. Any domestic legislation passed by this parliament can be overridden by the next.
Shape to Be Determined
The shape of the deal is yet to be determined.
If Johnson wins, which is likely, he would choose a Canada-Style free trade agreement. The UK and EU would then make a very low or even zero tariff deal.
Attempts to Block Sanity
A low-tariff or zero-tariff arrangement is best for the EU and the UK both.
But Remainers have shown they will do anything and everything to block sanity.
Important Shift
What may also intrude is a point made by Wolfgang Munchau in his FT column. He writes that the EU will do everything it can to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But there has been one important shift: The EU is no longer actively siding with the Remainers. We would not rule out the EU accepting an extension but only on condition of an election. While that is not the position of Donald Tusk or the Finnish EU presidency, it is still the official position of France.
As I have commented before, it is best to ignore listening to those who have no official say. Tusk wants the EU to stay, but he is not in charge. Michel Barnier negotiated a deal, and now the 27 member states have a say.
Why can’t the UK vote against its own extension request, if it ever comes to that point?
Way Forward
We will not know the European Council’s precise policies until Macron has spoken. Would it be really unthinkable for France to break ranks and say: we are happy to agree an extension but only if the UK parliament provides a way forward? We don’t think so.
The EU will discuss a formal extension request after the first vote on the withdrawal agreement bill which is scheduled for tomorrow. If the vote is positive, the EU may agree a short technical extension to make way for ratification. In that case, we see no controversy. If it is clear that the UK cannot ratify, the European Council would meet, and decide on its action.
Jumping to Conclusions
Eurointelligence cautioned against jumping to conclusions about what the EU or France might do.
Note the widespread belief that the EU would “never” renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement or the Political Statement. It did both.
Many of my readers felt the legal challenge against Johnson’s agreement was ironclad and the courts would strike down the deal based on Ireland having separate arrangements. Instead, the courts tossed the challenge without any debate.
With that, let’s return to the first link and a Telegraph discussion.
Customs Union Vote Totals
It’s not at all clear that a customs union vote would even pass. Indeed, it appears that it would have no chance unless, at a minimum, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson backed it.
But her position all along has been to block Brexit of any kind. Swinson does not want a referendum, and she has refused all along to back Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn as a caretaker PM. In turn Corbyn will not agree to anyone else as caretaker.
Delays Serve Johnson
Every delay serves Johnson.
Eurointelligence did not do the customs union math but there it is. Assume the amendment fails.
What then?
If Corbyn had the votes to become caretaker, he would have called a motion of no confidence long ago.
Will Bercow allow a vote on Johnson’s deal without amendment? If not, then what?
France Holds a Key
France can easily unlock the door by insisting on a way forward.
- Elections
- Scrapping Brexit
- Referendum
- Unhindered vote on Johnson’s bill
French Key Analysis
1: Labour does not want elections now. Corbyn might get slaughtered and that could even lead to no deal, which is what the EU fears.
2: There is no majority to scrap Brexit
3: There is no majority for a Referendum either, but even then, France might not want to wait. Everyone is sick of these delays except the pro-Remain crowd.
4: An unhindered vote on Johnson’s deal with an extension to allow the UK parliament to vote.
Block “No Deal” was a sham all along.
Delays Help Johnson
It is to Johnson’s advantage to delay a decision as long as he can.
I have heard nothing about legal challenges to Johnson’s Benn move today. Perhaps his double-letter, one unsigned was the legal way around or perhaps the case moves forward, with uncertain consequences.
Either way, delays help Johnson. Court actions take time.
There is a vote scheduled tomorrow, most likely with a customs union attachment. If it fails, and math suggests it will, Johnson would then seek a straight up vote on October 23.
At that point we will be just 8 days from No Deal. The genuine “No Deal” advocates will at that point be running scared.
France Can Help
France can easily make Benn moot by demanding a way forward. The best way would be to grant an extension for the sole purpose of approving Johnson’s deal.
Because delays suit Johnson, France should throw a lifeline as late as possible in the game.
Let’s return to a key comment made by Eurointelligence: The EU is no longer actively siding with the Remainers.
Why?
Because France does not want the UK blocking its agenda in the European Parliament. Thus, France and Donald Tusk have vastly different agenda.
Tusk’s opinion carries no weight. In contrast, France has a veto that it can use at any time.
Also recall that France gains seats in the European Parliament if the UK leaves. Germany doesn’t. For many reasons it makes sense for French President Emmanuel Macron to help Johnson.
Way Forward
In summation, the most likely thing is for France to demand a way forward. Macron can do so in a concrete fashion, demanding a vote or in an iffy fashion.
Meanwhile, Johnson can help his cause by rescinding his extension request and replacing it with an extension request for the sole purpose of passing the WA unhindered. The EU would surely grant that request.
Would Bercow then hold such a vote up? Actually, I think not, because conditions will have changed.
Assuming the bill passed unhindered, might not Johnson then prorogue UK Parliament until after the EU Parliament vote? If possible, that is what I would do in his shoes. It would stop all further Remain shenanigans.
Meanwhile, Johnson’s and Macron’s views seem are aligned towards a double binary solution.
Germany May be On Board as Well
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday there could be a short extension to the Brexit process – if getting agreement on the deal by October 31 proved too difficult. #BrexitExtension pic.twitter.com/KXGCiQA5ty
— DW Politics (@dw_politics) October 21, 2019
Double Binary
- Get an unhindered vote “Johnson’s Deal or No Deal” in the UK Commons.
- Get an unhindered ratification of “Johnson’s Deal or No Deal” in the European Parliament
It would pass both by huge majorities.
Neither side wants to be the party that led to No Deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish, it’s like talking to wall here posting on your site. You insist Brino is Brexit. The PD makes clear we are aligning regulations, tax, fisheries, foreign policy and our military with the EU, and Article 184 of the WA places an obligation for “best endeavours” to achieve the PD.
PD? Proposal Document? – Sorry I am not sure what PD means.
I am suspicious about the agreement as well. Hard Brexit is the only Brexit that makes any sense to me.
PD is the political declaration that is attached to the withdrawal agreement.
Johnson can’t rescind the request. That would be frustrating the Benn act.
Please call for long overdue general elections. These cowards need to be reckoned with, swiftly and abruptly. People like this have no place in politics (or the corporate sector for that matter)! Unbelievable.
The EU said that they wouldn’t renegotiate May’s deal. They backed down.
The EU said that they wouldn’t ammend the backstop. They backed down.
The EU demanded £39 billion upfront before negotiations would even begin. They backed down.
The EU said that there would be no more extensions after Halloween. They backed down in less than a day. Now they say it’s up to Boris.
These tough negotiators are wilting like flowers in the face of a corrupt buffoon with one hand tied behind his back. Imagine the deal we could have got had we been led by men, rather than a gaggle of whores and eunuchs.
“Whore masters” is what Cromwell called similar if I remember correctly. “Hollow men” as Dominic Cummings would say.
Cummings and old Ollie were each half right. They’re masters of nothing, and there’s not a pair of balls between the lot of them.
Nothing to disagree with here. In fact if you want I’ll tell you my favourite bit of Whitehall lunacy. In my experience everything Cummings says is his blog is true. This is a very real problem. Why is all this stupidity the EU’s fault? The problem is ours alone and nothing will be made better by leaving the EU because the same idiots will be in charge. As I’ve said before the Brexiteers are quite right to be angry about the state of the country, you are just focussed on the wrong problem.
You would think it were better to deal with one set of idiots than a combination of twenty eight , where you only have a smaller fraction of any say besides the occasional veto in some boardroom in another country. When national arbitrage, also known as sovereignty, is handed to a foreign entity, the effect permeates through the whole of government and society. Perpetually moving the goal posts for the sake of evasion of responsibility becomes an accepted exercise in futility, and utterly defeatist. It is no wonder your comment reflects this.
Sadly all of our public utilities and most of our railways are run by French, German, Dutch, Italian and Spanish state employees who do a good job for the governments they work for. In my experience most of our top Civil Servants would merit an A+ for hiding their errors and misleading the public and ministers. Cummings has their measure and as far as I’m concerned it is a pity he is a brexiteer. His energies would be much better used reforming the way the UK is governed. Don’t you think it is stupid that it would cost us £96 each to buy a 2nd class return ticket from the midlands to London? That is a home grown absurdity that will persist until the necessary reforms take place in the UK and has nothing to do with the EU.We go to Treviso and Nice for the same money.
Sorry I forgot this. You say that the EU has degraded theUK’s ability to govern itself. The rot started long before we joined the EU. Britains first motorways were built in the late 1950s. They stoped at ,Oxford and Cambridge. Guess why?
‘ why is all this stupidity the EU fault’ ….Because the EU in its present form has absolutelly no reason to exist except for its legally corrupt nomenklatura and bribing corporate cronies !
Sorry, but this is nonsense. Boris needs his deal approved as soon as possible. The time is running out – remember that all Boris’s support is holding up on keep promise to leave EU on Oct 31 – deal or no deal… If he does not have a deal and agrees on any extention, then credibility of Tories goes to zero, and who exactly wins next election becomes a big question as Tories will be loosing to Brexit party. And Boris will be called big fat LIER for the rest of his life…
Simply wrong – the more last minute the better – No time for more destructive legislation. It is surely coming otherwise.
The one possible exception is if Johnson can prorogue Parliament immediately after the vote.
He can’t prorogue immediately. It needs time to get royal consent. And surely such progrogation is going to be illegal in the eyes of the supreme court.
I think krage has a fair point. If the Tories can’t deliver Brexit on time, public support will bleed to the Brexit party when and election is called. With the Tory vote split, the chances of a Lab-LibDem coalition forming the next government increases considerably.
I would’ve agreed a month ago. Now, it seems like Boris can legitimately argue that he negotiated a deal with the EU in good faith but that Parliamentary Remainers used procedural skulduggery to thwart it. Boris has his Parliament-vs-People election theme ready to go, courtesy of Remain.
I would still advocate an electoral pact with the Brexit Party in most of the Labour-held ridings where 60+ percent of the vote went to Leave but where the MP has voted against Brexit. Even if the Brexit Party candidate doesn’t win, it will (a) catch Labour off balance & (b) require Labour to spend money & time in those areas, draining resources from their ability to contest Tory marginal seats.
The Brexit secretary admitted today both in committee and on the floor of the house that exports from NI to the UK will have to provide a customs declaration in order to comply with EU law. This is unbelievable. Expect more than John Redwood to row back from supporting the liar. This deal, like May’s before it will unravel.
Ahh! Some one is back
Bad penny and all that.
‘This deal… will unravel’
Fingers crossed! The only problem is that no-deal hinges on the competence of remainer sabotage, and you lot have been able to find your collective arse once in what is otherwise a 3 and a half year streak of laughable ineptitude.
Here’s hoping that it’s twice!
Get back to beddie byes.
It’s 21:17 GMT. I don’t know where you are but it’s not the UK. Who’d have guessed?
Litel chiwdren should be in bed by 19:00.
That’s where I’ll go then. What the standard bedtime for embittered losers?
When your head hits the pillow. Sleep tight.
I haven’t slept this well since the referendum! I wish you the same, loser.
Just ignore the paperwork.
Paperwork in order? Yes, sir, move along.
Avid,
the only proper deal is No Deal. A hard border between the UK and the Irish Republic.
Even after some form of a (no) deal, negotiations would have to start on the terms of trade. These type of treaties tend to take upwards of 5 years to negotiate. In the meantime, Dutch fishers, French farmers, Italian cobblers, and Slovak mechanics would all be jockeying for veto rights, not to mention Belgium’s German regional Parliament, etc.
In view of the resolve and competency of British politics so far, this show is going to drag on forever.
I know. Given that the geniuses were insisting that NI remained in the UK customs union until somebody /actually read the agreement and forced the admission that NI will be in the EU customs union. The geniuses thought they could keep that one quiet. Why is it do you think, that even though these people have been proven to be wrong, ignorant or incompetent that their followers just ignore it?
Because UK can ignore paperwork between NI and rest of the country. What people say and do needn’t be the same thing.
Trust, civil servants never ignore paperwork. The more paperwork they have the better.
We’re not ignoring it, we’re watching very closely. The contest between ‘brexiteer’ MPs and remainers is a contest between hypocrites and idiots. It’s why they keep getting in each other’s way.
Why should a ‘speaker’ be allowed to do what this biased fck does…..I have noticed more than once, this guy is everything but objective….
Without a doubt Bercow hijacked parliament for Remainers. He is obligated to be neutral.
At the G7 meeting there was a partial video of Macron saying/shouting “Order, Order”, Aug 2019.
I thought it strange. Now I wonder if he had been involved with Bercow as those are the words of the Speaker and no reason for Macron to say that in English.
Collusion?
He was probably just trying to have a moment of levity.
It is the speaker’s job to tell the powerful to do one, which is not generally appreciated by the powerful. It is still tradition for the speaker to be dragged to his seat by fellow MPs to remember that several Speakers were executed for telling the monarch to do one. Speaker Lenthal is one of the more famous speakers, he told Charles I to do one and old Charley boy did. As long as the speaker carries out the will of parliament then he can’t be biased. A speaker is not and never has been the governments poodle.
In theory, you’re correct. In practice, Spkr. Bercow has bent rules & precedent to such a degree that his sympathies are obvious.
He’s publicly stated that he voted for remain, & his condemnation of September’s prorogation appeared to come from a script written by Corbyn & Swinson.
Of course, the Speaker has to stand up to the Government, but a Speaker of the Commons is not supposed to work to frustrate the Government’s legitimate agenda the way Spkr. Bercow has done. In January, he arguably colluded with Dominic Grieve to force a vote on Teresa May’s “Plan B,” which derailed her Brexit attempts.
This odious fellow is like an overripe apple. Thank God he’s not running again. If the Commons are smart, Dame Eleanor Laing will be the next Speaker.
anachronistic bs !