Prime minister Boris Johnson said he is ‘Very Confident’ his Brexit deal will pass the House of Commons vote on Saturday.
But what about the constitutional challenge?
Scottish anti-Brexit campaigner Jolyon Maugham believes that the deal contravenes s55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018, which states that it is “unlawful for Her Majesty’s government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain”.
Constitutional Challenge Rejected
Surprise, surprise, the High Court in Edinburgh rejected the appeal.
Let’s pick up the discussion on the Guardian Live Blog.
Lord Pentland, who heard submissions on Friday morning and delivered his ruling at 5pm the same day, said Maugham’s argument was “weak”, adding that his petition was “of doubtful competency”. In his ruling, Pentland said:
It is a cardinal principle of constitutional law that the courts should not intrude on the legitimate affairs and processes of parliament.
I believe this should have been obvious. Effectively, Maugham was asking that law never be changed.
Hammond to Vote No
Meanwhile, former chancellor Phillip Hammond says he will only vote for deal if PM rules out no deal at end of transition.
This is asininity at its finest.
The deal allows for trade negotiation at the end of one year. It would be downright idiotic to reject walking away. Indeed, the only way to get a good deal is to have a threat of walking away.
Amazingly, Johnson managed to do that with Parliament tying his hands behind his back.
Labour MPs Falling in Line
🚨 NEW: Another Labour MP switcher
Sarah Champion signals she will vote FOR the deal in an email to a constituent this afternoonhttps://t.co/LXj8LW5nu4 pic.twitter.com/foKgazJ03p
— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) October 18, 2019
Nick Boles On Board
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1185213768818745344
Another Hard Brexiteer Now On Board
After much consideration, I have decided to back @BorisJohnson deal. Obviously I would prefer No-Deal but I believe we are in real danger of losing Brexit with the Remain shenanigans and the stakes are dangerously high at the moment. My statement below. https://t.co/n9nEkJePRO pic.twitter.com/FHkJjNUtVW
— Andrea Jenkyns MP 🇬🇧 (@andreajenkyns) October 18, 2019
Macron Praises Johnson
Emmanuel Macron on Boris Johnson:
“He is sometimes colourful…but he is a leader with genuine strategic vision and those who did not take him seriously were wrong.” https://t.co/nFjSpQQekI
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) October 18, 2019
Majority of Two
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1185230043766763520
That is how I saw it yesterday, even if Johnson could not get DUP on board.
Jacob Rees-Mogg commented “There are Labour MPs in seats that voted 60, 70% to leave and they will, of their own volition, regardless of anything I could say to them, be thinking about how do they best represent their own voters.”
Macron Agrees with Juncker
CityAM says Emmanuel Macron says he will veto Brexit delay
The French President today told MPs to back the deal, saying it was the result of “real leaders with real strategic thoughts”.
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday said there was no need for a Brexit delay now a deal is agreed.
That ramps up pressure on MPs to support Johnson’s deal in parliament to avoid the threat of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.
Sir Oliver Letwin has now put forward an amendment to the government’s Brexit bill motion that would force the Prime Minister to seek an extension regardless.
It is irrelevant if Johnson seeks an extension if the deal does not pass.
France is clearly tired of these extensions.
Deal Eurosceptics Can Support
Jacob Rees-Mogg says Boris Johnson has delivered a Brexit deal that eurosceptics can – and should – enthusiastically support.
Eurointelligence Comments
Think for a second of Boris Johnson’s strategic accomplishment. First, he manages to kill off the Brexit party and then does a U-turn to get a deal, in the process of which he stitches up the DUP as well. Remember all those predictions that he was not serious about a deal – or that the EU would never agree to reopen the withdrawal agreement? What happened yesterday was one of those rare big moments in European diplomacy.
A potentially important development is the slow death of the second referendum – probably the most overhyped hypothetical story of our time. As the Guardian reports, second referendum supporters have concluded what the rest of us have known all along – that they don’t have a majority. They decided to pull the plug on a second referendum vote on Saturday, so they can focus on assembling a majority against the deal. This makes sense to us. It allows them at least to keep their preferred option alive.
But this means that Johnson’s deal is now the only game in town. The House of Commons rejected the only other deal available. There is now no majority in favour of a government of national unity, let alone unilateral Brexit revocation.
General Election Polls
What Happened?
- The EU got cold feet. As I suggested for years, all it took was a Prime Minister willing to walk away.
- Blocking “No Deal” was never about that at all. It was about blocking any deal.
- The EU can read polls as well as I can, at least presumably.
- Regardless of who gets hurt more, both the EU and the UK would suffer under No Deal, at least short-term.
- Germany was going to get crucified under No Deal.
EU Buckled
I have been taunted by Remainers for months crowing
- Another Referendum was coming
- The EU would never change the Withdrawal Agreement
- The EU would not change the Political Declaration
Number one isn’t happening and numbers two and three already did happen.
Another Referendum is Dead
And if there was any doubt about the EU parliament accepting the deal, Macron killed that doubt today.
Red Lines Respected
In the end, the EU compromised as did Johnson.
That’s the normal state of affairs in negotiation, as long as one side does not cave in up front as Theresa May did.
Short Extension?
Assuming passage, a short extension is possible, if not likely. It would give time for passage in the UK and EU parliaments.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
As an attempt to be helpful, I did a draft of the letter the PM will need to send to the EU now. Feel free to edit it until it is perfect.
Cheers!
I’m writing this letter over a pint of bitter. I’m sure you lot are ensconced in the private room at your exclusive club in Brussels where only 27 of you are members. As you detest pints, I trust you have your own half-liter glasses of fruit beer from the Belgian taps in your club. Drink up whilst you read this letter!
First, my apologies for the delay in this letter reaching you. Because of the climate change concerns you have been lecturing us about, I decided to deliver this letter without expanding Britain’s carbon footprint. That is why I left the letter with a very nice African chap who illegally entered our country and we were already deporting to the continent. I trust he brought you this letter with a smile, as he was told that if he delivered this letter to your fine institution, he would be treated with the traditional warm welcome Europe gives to immigrants seeking a better future.
Second, I further apologise for the rather dreadful stench you have probably noticed by now. I have stapled to this letter another letter from Parliament that I have been instructed to forward to you. Prior to sending it, however, I had to run to the loo to expel an unpleasant Remainer of my last meal in Brussels before returning home. Unfortunately your fine facilities did not include a toilet roll, and the only thing I had with me was the letter from Mr. Benn, so I was forced to use that to tidy myself. I might suggest you immediately place the letter in a rubbish bin, or better yet dispose of it in a medical waste bin, as I am quite sure the fumes could be toxic in your airless club room.
At any rate, we in the UK are sorry to leave the Europe party early. It sounds like we will be easily replaced, though I was surprised to see you turned down two new prospective entrants in Albania and Macedonia. I suppose I understand why you would not want them in your exclusive Brussels club; surely there are many more noble countries banging at the door there to be permitted entry.
I bid you adieu from London!
Boris
The letter has been written and is part of UK law. If the liar refuses to sign the letter then he risks being jailed for contempt of court. He will feel at home there, it is full of con artists.
Indeed, the Benn letter is already written. I just proposed a helpful cover letter for it.
The liar has to show ” best endeavours” or else faces contempt. All these little wheezes fall in the same manner.
Well, the remainers got their way and delayed the vote yet again, pretty sure this will mean now a no deal Brexit and upon the remainers head that will be. But, one thing in all this is just the sheer disappointment with the minority of British that are such pussies about it all, Winston Churchill must be revolving in his grave over their cowardice. He faced Hitler which was a more obvious threat to the UK than even the EU is, he guided Britain through 6 years of war, the blitz, rations that meant real hunger, and the remainers sold out this legacy for what? Whiny little welfare grabbers complaining that they MIGHT have to actually buck up and do some work.
Bad news for them, October 31 they leave without a deal because of the effete remainer phobia of being responsible to their nation, GET OVER IT YOU LOST THE REFERENDUM, you should have taken the deal while you could. For those of the ilk of UKIP who wanted no deal all along this is a great win. UKIP thanks the LibDems and Labour, SNP and DUP, putting off the vote means the deal will be dead by Monday, why would Ireland and the EU now take anything out of London seriously?
Why does it mean no deal? The agreement can pass on monday
I have the same question… wouldn’t it mean that deal is more likely now as there will be clarity that no extention will happen?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This entire charade has clearly brought out the true nature of the Remainers. So morally righteous and convinced they’re such good people, while they chose an undemocratic and unelected cabal of elites, over their fellow countrymen. Millionaire Bob Geldoff scoffing at hardworking fishermen is the best example of that. They turned a vote into a divide, one that is ripping apart the country. And for what? Loyalty to a union that exists for corporate profits and has decimated the living standards of the average EU citizen.
I still think when the entire legislation is presented, it passes easily. I think Letwin is just an attempt to humiliate Johnson, but Remain’s back is still the one against the wall- they still have to take a meaningful vote for or against the deal, and those votes in some form will have to be taken. They do still have a choice- they can start voting down the agreement’s pieces, voting for them, voting down the government, or revoking Article 50 altogether. Those are the choices, and today’s vote is just avoiding the hard choices, but those choices can’t be evaded for more than another week.
No, they can just keep delaying all and hoping the EU steps in and accommodates them and they will, you think there is no back channel between the EU and the remainers?
We are at an interesting stage now.
The initial EU reaction to the vote (as expressed by the Polish delegation) is that there will be no EU vote on an extension until the Withdrawal Agreement is debated and voted on in Parliament. Those MPs who thought they would know an extension is assured before debating the bill will find the opposite has occurred.
Macron has said he would veto another delay. We now know he is not afraid to go against the entire EU, as he just vetoed expansion of the EU to bring on two new countries (Macedonia and Albania). Juncker and Merkel, among others, ripped into Macron for the veto, but he didn’t care. There is clearly a power struggle going on between Macron and Merkel, and Merkel looks weak. Hard Brexit would immediately devastate Germany’s economy, and greatly reduce Merkel’s power base.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Remainer actions today result in a hard Brexit?! Certainly the odds of that happening have now risen dramatically.
Ironic Quatloo? It was their goal all along, they painted a picture of “no deal Brexit” so bleak and scary that nobody in their right mind could support such a fate. Then they guaranteed that if the leavers continued with Article 50 it would be this very no deal scary hardship Brexit. It was their insurance policy that would weaken support for leaving. Their way of telling people if we leave it will be an historic disaster for the UK economy and lives. Of course it was all hyperbole and hype, no such disaster will happen deal or “no deal.” The EU can’t afford to punish the UK with sanctions and punitive tariffs and laws. And the UK can’t afford to punish the EU, they are automatically inclined to remain cooperative in most areas they formerly were anyway.
Whatever does happen now, all things negative related to Brexit or it’s continued delay will be on the heads of the remainers who have not one single day negotiated in good faith. They have destroyed the UK in the name of remaining a vassal of the EU. And if you think that leaving the EU will hurt the economy just wait till you see the permanent damage being done by the protracted delays, because nobody is going to invest in London till this is settled once and for all.
I disagree—the goal of the Remainers was never to have a hard Brexit, it was to repeal Article 50 and remain in the EU. If in the end their efforts to repeal article 50 lead to a hard Brexit, well that is the delicious irony I mentioned here.
But what better way to force the people to revote and this time get it “right”b than to make leaving a “hard only” Brexit? They are the ones that say Brexit will be a disaster, now they are forced to make that true. And what could be a bigger disaster from the remainer point of view than a hard Brexit?
I think we are saying the same thing—I would love to see a hard Brexit
Look Mish, I appreciate you trying to predict the outcome but please stick to things you actually know something about, and, no, I’m NOT a “Remainder.”
Time after time, you’ve completely MISJUDGED the political intricacies and made the WRONG prediction, yet similar to “Qanon” Trumptards, you somehow desperately cling onto some kind of “3-D chess” theory of how “BoJo” will outfox and outsmart everybody.
Spoiler alter: he WON’T, simply because there are too many vested interests (read:”The City” and the UK banking/money laundering industry) to keep the EU(SSR) status quo.
It ain’t over ’til the Fat Lady sings!
I suspect that one way or another HMG will be able to definitively announce on Monday that the EU will NOT accept any extension. At which point Parliament will have no choice but to finally go forward with a Deal vs No Deal vote.
(Personally, I believe there is almost no difference between either result except within this hung Parliament; but either way it will soon be over and then the next thing should be an election soon after the election of new Speaker, which unfortunately is the last thing this Hung Forever Parliament may get to vote on.
Guess what: the EU will allow for an extension…
Johnson’s deal: The reality of what is being proposed Ian Dunt. Key section:
Sorry, I know these are not your words but you did post them and I call bullshit to it. Who in their right minds would now ever invest in the British economy until this is settled? The longer Brexit drags on the lower investment will be and that is what will hurt the people and their incomes. I also would not now invest in a UK still in the EU because we will be treated to this all over again as sentiment has not really changed, more than half the people still want independence and so the threat of yet another protracted Article 50 fight in the future is still out there. The remainers bear all the responsibility for all losses and all suffering in this matter.
Its all meaningless. How will we ever know whether someone will be £2,250 a year worse off by 2034 — unless we can discover parallel universes of course.
Well the liar hasn’t got the votes. The Letwin amendment has just passed with a large majority. Now does the liar sign the letter?
I’ve just had my morning and early afternoon consumed by watching the Brexit deal debate. I only switched off when that tiresome fool from the ScotNats stood up for the second time to read his pre-prepared drivel. His greatest speaking achievement was to use the word “shafted” three times without getting stepped on by the speaker for un-parliamentary language.
Anyway ……… I can declare a dislike of Boris and a near hatred of most things Tory, but I have to say that he far out-played the other side at every juncture and every twisting gambit to frustrate progress. He even invited the ScotNat to congratulate England on thrashing the Aussies at the rugby WRC, the scots already having been sent home early after failing badly against Japan and being knocked out.
Two things were clear – the ever thinner and more tortuous arguments offered to extend the process into infinity and the absence of any heavyweight Labour figures (other than Benn) to argue against going ahead. All we heard was, “unions say this, unions say that”. One or two of the braver ones stood up and called it like it is.
To see Labour MP after Labour MP stand up tooffer faux concerns about Northern Ireland made my blood boil. Remember that Corbyn was the man who supported the IRA and referred to their dead as martyrs.
Watching the faces and the body language in the chamber I reckon the predictions of a close vote are over cautious. I’d be surprised if less than 20 Labour MPs don’t fail to follow the whip and support the deal.
Boris only dropped the statesmanlike and collegiate apporach once, when he answered a late question from a LibDem saying she could choose between this deal or no deal. Mark my words – there’s a fall back plan that will deliver on 31st October even if the vote doesn’t go through.
.
Ready to eat humble pie over the drivle above?
My previous comment just vanished. But it was short: betrayal always has consequences.
Doesn’t it just.
It is, in its own way.
In any case, I hope Mish has called it right on this one. Wouldn’t it be nice for all this silly season stuff to end, eh?
I’m certainly hoping so too
“In any case, I hope Mish has called it right on this one. Wouldn’t it be nice for all this silly season stuff to end, eh?”
He has been completely wrong before, and I doubt he is correct this time.
First of all Mish I want to say sincerely and with all the respect I can muster, THANK YOU for your Brexit coverage, I doubt anyone here can guess at the hours you have put in to bring it to us.
It is 1:30 in the morning in Greenwich as I say this, the sun will be rising in London on what will be a historic day in British history no matter what happens by the time I get up. By the time I wake I expect to see that the UK is no longer in the EU, or at least a date is set for that to be fact.
It is true that you had a personal bias all the way through, as we all do one way or the other, but unlike “news” outlets your bias was both well stated and you used information and opinion of all sides to analyse the situation, it was the only place I could see both sides of the story in one place without hype or vitriol.
Of course now you have a follow up challenge. There was always going to be fallout no matter what happened, deal, no deal, remain, three different paths with all the same players, a mix of outcomes that can make or break remaining, leaving with or without, so the vote to ratify the deal and see an October 31 Brexit is not over on that day, I hope you keep us updated with the same clarity you have given us till now. If not at the same fever pitch, you deserve a vacation after all this.
And now to the remainer. (note I do not say remainer”s”) You are not to be disrespected in defeat, you have your opinion and most of us respect that, you even managed to get people to think in ways they otherwise would not have. Maybe an olive branch to the opposition is what is needed here, having won some battles but lost the war you could well sink into hateful recrimination and obstructive behavior, but, all the problems of Brexit are still there. Getting out of the union is just the first step. The roots of the problem are still in the ground and will sprout all over again in a matter of months. I would ask that you recognize that this Brexit is not some partisan fluke but the result of REAL problems that must be amended. I would have advocated against Brexit had the EU been a real force for good rather than a shell for the rich and powerful, socialism lite is just not a good enough reason to hold power on the European continent. You have misidentified the problem, all governments have misidentified the problem, so you seek to apply the wrong solutions. And we are at the point where we cannot afford even one year more of applying the wrong solutions to real problems. The results will be a humanitarian holocaust.
“First of all Mish I want to say sincerely and with all the respect I can muster, THANK YOU for your Brexit coverage, I doubt anyone here can guess at the hours you have put in to bring it to us.”
Yes indeed!
Totally agree. Thanks Mish.
Now we should all walk together, remainers and brexiters.
It’s too late now, but I was daydreaming today about a tactic that maybe should have been considered in terms of the this Speaker (because who knows what devious amendments he has been facilitating to serve up tomorrow and, later, with the Bill): Gov should move to investigate many of the Speaker’s controversial decisions to determine if he has broken the rules and/or the UK constitional/parliamentary maxims; also offer a motion to pass a Law that if a Speaker is found to have violated the laws etc. etc. that he should not only be obliged to resign within 7 days but suffer his pension to be annulled. Of course the motions won’t pass but they would have sent a clear warning:
‘Speaker, if you keep bringing these irregular and obstructive motions from the Opposition to keep bossing the Gov around even though you have refused a VONC, then once we finally do have an election and win it, these motions will be re-introduced, you will get investigated, and your pension will be on the line, so fly straight these last two weeks!!’
Well, we’ll soon see how Bercow’s Parliament can try to fashion resentment, chaos, irregularity, discord and defeat from the jaws of victory. As he loves to boast: ‘He’s done it before, he’ll do it again, and nothing will stop him!’
It does look like it’s over. I think the Remainer’s only card left is a VoNC, and they clearly don’t have the votes for that- the best chance for that was back in early September, but they didn’t have the balls to do it then when Johnson first asked for an election.
An NC vote would not change things now, it would only force a no deal Brexit. The remainers are already going to get the blame for a less than perfect deal and they know it. To do a NC vote and caretaker government would just make sure the voters see the remainers for what they are, and the results at the polls would be a disaster for them, it could be a generation before they have any voice at all in government.
No, it wouldn’t likely change anything now with Macron basically telling them it is over- it is deal or no deal Brexit on the 31st.
Just as surely as history did not begin yesterday, so it will not end tomorrow.
Next up: Scotsxit and NIxit. Maybe even Cymruxit.
Decentralization FTW!
Or just as likely EUxit wherein the entire EU implodes.
Macron just stated that France does NOT wish to pay for Northern Macedonia and Albania aid from EU that would follow them joining EU and therefore he BLOCKED their EU accession talks.
Scotland only functions because of the large amount of money they get inside Great Britain from english taxpayers.
Those Scots who think EU would happily welcome another huge recipient of EU aid to join EU are totally deluded and lack a working brain.
For France to support that would mean French farmers getting less EU aid and make it more likely that yellow vests would again be out in full force and make it likely that Macron would lose next elections and be just a 1-term president.
Scotland would be told to stay out of EU and pay their own lives if Scotland exited UK.
And besides France will veto it.
Silly stuff at this point
Who will opt out of the Benn Act coalition? 27 turnarounds are needed, so there is wiggle room.
He had more than a month to do that. Will he do it in hours? And win?
Macron acts tough like in the spring. See what happened then. It is just not in EU interest to make Britain leave.
I don’t think it is silly. It is farcical, yes, and matches the dishonesty of the “triumphant” deal. But it is clearly calculated in advance.
Any celebration can wait one day.
Does not the Benn Act say IF “IF” no deal is arranged by the 19th the PM must ask for an extension? Well a deal has been arranged so the Benn Act is void whether they approve the deal or not. The Benn Act does not say IF the PM delivers a deal that the remainers will approve of…. because of course part of the remainers strategy is as Mish says was not to stand against a no deal Brexit it was to stand against any deal. The original Benn Act motive was clearly to require yet another extension (then another and another) by the minority opposition simply voting down any deal. There was never going to be any deal they would vote for unless that “deal” looked like never even leaving at all.
Thanks to Barnier, Johnson, Juncker, and Macron, for their parts.
The condition of the Benn Act is the approval of Parliament. This amendment just says that approval means actual legislation. The motion today is not binding in itself, there is no time to push through an actual act of Parliament.
The rhetoric is that the deal (even if approved today) can be undone next week. For example, the ERG can turn around and force “no deal”. Or there can be an accident. Or anything. I don’t think it is a honest argument but it can be successful.
I think that the tough talk is just hot air from the EU. They would be perfectly comfortable with the repeated humiliation of Britain.
I get the feeling that the EU is exhausted and that they would be quite happy to see the UK sail off into the sunset.
They certainly have lots of other things on their plate now and threatening in the near future, Brexit surely must be an unwanted and time consuming distraction at this point.
Distracion comes handy in any crisis.
If you look at this as a war of attrition, then British Leavers stand against British Remainers AND a supranational giant. I wouldn’t bet that the latter side will exhaust itself first.
Anyway, we will see.
I can’t disagree with your line of reasoning but I would say that questions like the Turkish-Syrian conflict, continuing economic malaise and the fallout from the China-US trade war must be more pressing for the EU now.
Also Greece attracted lots of new migrants to Greek islands that came thru Turkey by transferring thousands of migrants to Greek mainland because of the overcrowding.
So the Greek attempt to ease overcrowding in migrant camps led to more overcrowding when more migrants came after hearing Greece is transferring migrants to Greek mainland (from where they can try to cross to Italy or travel the Balkan-route to Austria and Germany, the Croatian border police is turning them away with batons, pepper-spray and tear gas (Hungary has their double fences with razorwire) but some get through from Bosnia to Croatia and onward from Croatia to Slovenia and Austria and Germany).
Latest idiotic plan from Greece’s new government is to increase the transfer from Greek islands to Greek mainland by 20 000 with 10 000 of these given hotelrooms to live in.
This will attract another 50 000 migrants from Turkey to Greece so Greece is making the situation worse and attracting more migrants with their own policies while crying to EU to get a policy which would see every migrant coming to Greece to be relocated aka burden shared to other EU countries and if Greece gets this policy through in EU then millions will come to Greece to get the relocation and hope they get to Germany, Sweden and other EU countries where migrants (especially syrians) easily get asylum and where those who get asylum get free welfare money and free apartment and free healthcare for the rest of their lives.
EU is building another 2015 style crisis because EU does NOT tell Greece to stop acting stupidly and demand that all migrants are kept in Greek islands.
Instead new EU-comission leader Von Der Leyen has stated that her goal is to get an EU relocation system that would burden share all migrants coming to Greece and other Mediterranean countries around EU.
Yes, a year of Yellow Vest rioting in France, Catalan riots day before yesterday, impending recession, PIS in Poland giving the bird to the EU as they trample all over people’s rights and stack their courts, Orban in Hungary, Turkey threatening to unleash millions more refugees on the continent, the last thing they need now is another couple years of British foot dragging. I think as delightful as it might be to humiliate the UK endlessly there just is no stomach for it left, they have REAL problems.
DP: Someone did not pass Professor Trelawney’s class in reading tea leaves. Macron, Barnier, Juncker, all the rest did not make the comments they did just to get their photo in the paper today. This is it, the EU recognizes that this is the best deal they could possibly get, and so does Johnson and Varadkar. It is this or nothing. And the Benn Act, it is like a senile attempt to make preventive law, why did not the minority opposition just pass an act that said the UK can never leave the EU?
I doubt if France would veto an extension outright. If deal passes Saturday and Letwin Amendment also passes then Macron might say “Forget 3 month extension. We give you a 2 week extension to pass the legislation but then that is all”.
The Benn Act states that PM must accept ANY timeframe and conditions from EU. If Parliament can’t pass the necessary Bills then they only have themselves to blame.
If a deal passes then extension is meaningless
This is the thing.
link to theguardian.com
Won’t pass and even if it did Johnson could legally challenge it and likely win.
Tactic is not my strong suit.
I thought that Labour will go for rejection. However, that choice would entail aggressive whipping against Labour Eurosceptics who are mostly Corbyn’s allies in the inner conflicts. Seems like an inescapable trap.
Now it looks like they have entirely different plans for tomorrow. Their priority is not to win the vote but to make it meaningless. It is planned well in advance and the crucial tool is the Letwin amendment tabled for tomorrow. Even if the whole house votes for the deal, it would still mean nothing with the amendment.
Will the amendment pass? Nobody knows for sure. But the Benn Act had a comfortable majority and this is the same thing. Remainers will go for it en masse including Letwin, Gauke and possibly other Tory rebels. It is also convenient for several Labour Leavers who got their 15-minute fame today but don’t want to destroy their party.
I might be wrong. But… It won’t hurt if we wait it out. Just in case.
The Maven has replicated the comment error that many have noted. A fix hopefully with a few days or sooner.