Johnson ‘Pauses’ Brexit Legislation
Boris Johnson has confirmed he will set aside the bill that would implement his deal, despite the fact the Commons has just backed it, after his proposal to fast-track it through parliament was rejected by MPs.
He says he does not want a delay and will continue to discuss with EU27 leaders until they decide whether or not to grant one.
Amazing Feat But Still Short
We should take a moment and consider this. Boris Johnson has managed to get the second reading of the WAB past Parliament. He’s done it by uniting the Tory Party around a deal. It’s no mean achievement.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 22, 2019
- Supposedly the EU would never remove the backstop.
- Supposedly the EU would never change the political declaration
- Supposedly the Benn Bill would require Johnson to seek a 3-month extension
None of those happened.
Johnson’s Statement
Can I say in response how welcome it is, even joyful that for the first time in this long saga, this House has actually accepted its responsibilities together, come together, and embraced a deal?
I congratulate honourable members across the House on the scale of our collective achievement because, just a few weeks ago, hardly anybody believed that we could reopen the withdrawal agreement, let alone abolish the backstop, that is indeed what they were saying.
And certainly nobody thought we could secure the approval of the House for a new deal and we should not overlook the significance of this moment.
Limbo
According to Speaker John Bercow, the bill is in “Limbo”.
MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said the bill is neither in heaven, nor hell, but rather purgatory.
It is now up to the EU and Johnson. If the EU offers a short delay only Johnson would likely take it.
I would caution against reading to much from Donald Tusk’s statements. Tusk does not speak for the EU on this matter. He always wants delays, hoping for a reversal. It only takes one nation to disagree and demand a shorter extension.
A delay until January is certainly possible. It is not a given as it solves nothing!
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The EU has a decision about the future of the UK again.
If the EU gives a long extension, then Labour cannot deny a general election. Brexit is in limbo, Remainers are split, all this means that Johnson would probably win smoothly. The next parliament passes the deal and tries to cope with Irish and Scottish separatism. Likely in vain.
If the EU gives a short extension, then Labour can deny the election and go for amendments on the Brexit deal. They have good chance for a customs union amendment because they have the DUP, they can buy the SNP, and LibDems know that Corbyn will allow a free vote on the deal again. 🙂 In this case, the successful Labour move takes down Johnson,. Corbyn can become interim PM and he has the bulk of the Remain vote. Another hung parliament is likely and the circus continues.
There is one thing that silently slipped away though: the October 31 Brexit. It is beyond me why anyone still thinks that deadlines are credible. Extension is always the default scenario while the gridlock is not broken. Yes, the EU can break it if and when they want. But why would they break it now with a proposal of long extension? They can wait until the UK is weary enough to accept even worse terms.
I just found a relevant report about a few details:
link to buzzfeed.com
I think Cummings is right in this particular debate. However, the length of the extension depends on the EU and it might be too short for a general election.
Extend and accomplish nothing? Sounds familiar.
Contrary to Remainer Beliefs
a 3-month extension increases the odds of No Deal
Sticking with my Heads Win Tails Win call
The only thing that it achieves is to increase the odds that we dont leave at all.
One of the problems I have seen, especially over the last few weeks, is that Remainers are running with what they want to believe and not with what is actually happening, and will diametrically oppose the reality every time.
For example, after the 2 votes in the HoC last night the terminally cretinous Blackford tried to make out that the Gov had lost the vote, and so to did Swinson, so much so that one MP had to ask the Squeaker to clarify the outcome of the vote on the WAB.
Your comment falls in to this category.
NeverReady,
I am all for Hard Brexit! Maybe I am a cretin, but all I see is people playing for time and getting that time. They are hoping that something can happen.
My nightmare scenario is that Boris is really a remainer and is going to stitch us up. He has ways he can do that. For example, Brexit gets delayed, and they call a GE. That will split the Leave vote, and either Boris doesnt win and a remainer party gets in and cancels article 50, or if Boris wins, they find other ways not to make Brexit happen.
I hope that you are right and that I am a cretin, but I dont trust any politician.
Eurointelligence take is nearly what I said. Forget about Tusk and think about France.
Direct quote “France has signalled overnight that it is unhappy with a three-month Brexit extension, as proposed by Donald Tusk”
Three Month Extension – for what?
That is the question I asked, and Eurointelligence agrees.
Not surprised that the Media focused on Tusk.
Things can change overnight. But I am happy with my call.
I will post a take tomorrow. Things can change overnight. For reasons stated, France is sick of this.
But I keep coming back to this point time and time again
“Johnson, who had said he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than delay Brexit again, made clear that he was sending the request letter under duress.”
It is against a treaty that the UK but not the EU signed to force a state to sign a treaty.
Ace in the hole discussion.
link to moneymaven.io
Johnson was forced against his will. is an extension the same thing?
Does it matter?
The second thing I keep coming back to is Johnson needs to kill time.
If the EU delays offering the extension long enough, Johnson can kill the remaining time in court and deliver No Deal (or give parliament one last chance to pass his deal unrestricted)
Mish
Yes, he could use this in court as a personal defense, but if he declines the offered extension on the 31st- that is that, the UK is out, full stop. Nothing the UK court can do in this regard, and nothing the EU could do either since the terms of Article 50 in this regard are not open to interpretation- the EU couldn’t come back after the 31st to offer an extension to a new government’s request because the UK would no longer be in the EU. All a new government could do is apply to rejoin.
Of course, if Remain had the votes, they could revoke Article 50 before the 31st. That, to me, looks like the only other option to passing and making law Johnson’s deal. Otherwise, the UK is going to do a hard exit. I think this is the hammer Johnson intends to use to get this passed by the 31st. He will make this clear by the end of the week, I think.
The only offer that might persuade him to not decline the extension is one that leads to elections by the end of the year.
remain not remotely close to having the votes nor are there votes for a referendum
I think if he did pull off a No Deal, that there would be no end of Court challenges, he would not get an election and either have to preside over a minority HMG in a hostile, vindictive Opposition-controlled Parliament (who would no doubt elect a Bercow 2.0 ‘reforming’ Speaker like Harriet H), so even if he would prefer a No Deal exit in terms of Brexit, practically speaking it will make for a nightmare Premiership, furthermore without any way of getting any future negotiations with the EU through because everything will be amended to death.
He is using No Deal as a bargaining chip. The Benn Amendment has to a great degree neutralized it, but because he didn’t sign the Benn request, he has placed doubts in many minds on both sides of the Channel: his opponents aren’t sure if he might not have a way to reject any request for an extension and effect a No Deal exit, and European premiers are in a similar quandary: if they offer what the PM has clearly stated he doesn’t want (a 3-month extension), he might refuse.
I presume the negotiations between Corbyn and Johnson this morning were more about whether or not they can agree on an election and/or a passage of the bill without wrecking amendments. If Corbyn wouldn’t budge on either, then Johnson is going to have to consider pulling out some wrecking cards of his own. As the Telegraph put it: political guerrilla war.
Baron,
if we leave with a Hard Brexit, what would the court cases hope to achieve? No court could tell a complainant that we will rejoin the EU, that is beyond their power. I don’t think many remainers will waste their money on futile gestures.
PS Apologies for bad grammar etc. I cannot edit on this platform and find it hard to keep track of things in these 3-line composition windows…
I don’t think Johnson can veto his own request after reading discussion
HMG can simply decline the extension on the 31st if it comes to that. Again, Remain has to replace Johnson if they intend to stop Brexit. The Benn Bill won’t stop this. This is why, I believe, that Johnson made it clear that it wasn’t his letter, or the letter of the government which he leads. A court case won’t stop Brexit if Johnson declines an extension offer at the last moment. On the 31st, by the terms of the treaty, the UK is out.
Basically, what Johnson could say on the 31st is that HMG didn’t request the extension, and thus refuses it.
Yes, that he can do – but I worry about actions.
That is why I want the extension request to come as late as possible.
If it comes on the 28, Johnson I believe will refuse it on the 29.
I do not believe legal action can happen in two days.
At that point, Johnson can offer hos deal one more time, demanding no amendments. Or he can say to hell with it and just leave hard while blaming it on Remainers. I think he would go for a short extension.
This is exactly what I think Johnson’s plan is.
The only thing I would add here is to reiterate another point I made earlier- that Johnson might be agreeable to a three month extension if it is combined with an election in December. Without that, Johnson has no incentive at all to accept an extension from the EU, and without his assent, the EU has no authority to give it.
Great comment. You said it, “Remain has to replace Johnson if they intend to stop Brexit. The Benn Bill won’t stop this. ” I believe there is a third option as well. The Withdrawal Agreement can become law after a No Deal Brexit.
And I don’t think I really need to point out that HMG can veto the extension itself in the EU parliament. If you really think the Benn Bill will prevent this from happening, then you haven’t learned a damned thing. The UK is still a voting member for time being.
Well yes, just not in the EU Parliament.
Brexit is coming for sure, now. Just a question of whether it is done with Johnson’s deal or no deal. The EU isn’t going to give much of an extension, and Johnson may well rescind the letter he was forced to send if the Remainers continue to delay over the coming days.
Again, the Remainers keep doing the things that won’t stop Brexit. These delaying tactics are actually working against them politically.
Comment Edit function now seems to be working
A delay until January is certainly possible. It is not a given as it solves nothing!
There are other possibilities. Johnson could even pull his request for a delay, taking it to the courts.
I would caution against reading to much from Tusk’s statements.
Tusk does not speak for the EU, he always wants delays, hoping for a reversal. It only takes one nation to disagree and demand a shorter extension.
“Mish’s audience, according to Alexa’s web traffic monitoring site, continues to be less than 40% from the US, 5-10% from India, 5-10% from Pakistan.”
Country Bob – If you do like my posts, feel free to vote with your feet. Better yet, start your own blog and post content to your liking.
I already told you this is a Global Economic Blog. If you want a US only blog, find one. I am sure they exist.
Perhaps Country Bob believes that people – especially business people – don’t travel?
It is truly a good thing that people like Country Bob stay inside the borders of the USA. Otherwise their manners would spell disaster in some more refined environments.
No one mentioned traveling anywhere. You arrogantly assumed that people in the USA have a right to dictate how UK politics get resolved.
If you ever do travel, you will find the rest of the world calls arrogant pricks like you “Ugly American”
Mind your own business. Start by taking a course in basic reading comprehension
I always thought that it was the prerogative of the blog writer to decide what they wanted to write about. If the blog writer is free, then they are free on any whim to write about what they choose if the blog is a free blog.
And readers are free to read elsewhere.
But more important to the comment section, too many people who comment are not the world travelers that they think they are and make some spectacularly dumb and misinformed comments about the USA. Being from Pakistan and India (and California, which is now a 3rd world country in itself) does not make a person knowledgeable about anywhere
“Now the agreement has passed the EU have a strong incentive to work with Boris to pass the legislation asap.”
Liberty Lady is correct. The WA PASSED.
AvidRemainer is wrong. If Avid Remainer listened today, Bercow even corrected a Labour MP on that point.
The timetable for the WA did not pass.
The WA was not “pulled” as my first title said and Johnson
initially threatened. Rather, Johnson “suspended” the WA. Bercow specifically used the word “Limbo”.
Doesn’t Bercow know that the Pope cancelled Limbo some time ago? Seriously, I do not understand the British political system at all.
Mish, it is important to be accurate in these matters. I have a simple question, if the WAB passed why does the brouhaha continue? There is a world of difference between a bill being allowed to proceed and a bill that has become an Act. A bill is only passed when it becomes an Act. It is accurate to say that the 2nd reading passed but no more.
The EU will not allow No Deal if it can stop on. It can stop one because the WA passed. All it has to do is offer a short extension or demand elections instead of a 3-month extension. France might be willing to do that, but any nation could. It only takes 1.
Will that happen? I don’t know. But it is certainly possible. The EU will be happy with the margin of passage.
The 2nd reading of the WAB passed. That does not mean the WAB passed. Far from it, all it means is that the bill is allowed to go to committee stage, then the house of Lords and then third reading. The bill passes if the government wins the vote on the 3rd reading and then you can say that the WAB has passed but not until then. I don’t know what you you heard the Speaker say but it was not what you think you heard.
It passed commons.
Easy solution to backstop. Reunite Ireland as one country.
Don’t worry sooner or later, it’s going to happen.
If it were easy it would have happened before the Brexit referendum
Mish’s audience, according to Alexa’s web traffic monitoring site, continues to be less than 40% from the US, 5-10% from India, 5-10% from Pakistan.
The British have already left the EU, even if the politicians are still arguing about legal technicalities. Mish can’t see the forest from the trees or he would have dropped this stupid brexit thread long ago. Its over, the fat lady finished singing and exited the stage. October 31st and even the politicians will concede.
The G7 central banks are trying to prop up their debt bubble, but are no longer able to compel banks to lend money to moron socialists who cannot and will not ever repay. There is no repo problem, there is a deadbeat socialist problem.
Who has the over / under on Mish lasting more than 2yrs among the Mormons in Utah? They aren’t like the people of Chicago that Mish is used to. Mormons are also not like the Indians and Pakistanis and Californians that make up more than half Mish’s blog audience
searching… for your point.
Howdy Bob,
We’re all sick and tired about this charade called Brexit. Sure, it’ll happen, but the rift that’s caused by these shameful politicians is massive. It better be over, real quick.
Yup, that Repo drama isn’t the real story, something is boiling over. I wouldn’t necessarily blame socialists for this fucking mess, how about you start blaming Wallstreet and London, to start with? Surely a fine, sophisticated and worldly dude like you knows that that’s where the blame lies?
Seems Country Bob has never heard of people traveling? Business people travel extensively. I did read Mish’s blog when I was working in Thailand. Does that make me a Thai? I believe not.
I’m in the United Shitholes of America now, and I’m a US citizen and a resident of the great shithole of Tennessee, but I lived in Vietnam, China, and South Korea for nearly a decade. I don’t know why Country Bob makes a big deal out of Americans going overseas when you can’t even understand your own country until after you have lived in other countries.
I never wrote any of the nonsense you whine about
I’ve been friends with and even worked for Mormons before. I’ve found them to be friendly, hard-working people. I think Mish will be fine living in the Beehive State.
I have little doubt the Mormons will be friendly. At my prior residence (not Utah), my next door neighbors were officers in the Mormon Church — sent forth to recruit new members and so on. They made a gentle attempt to convert me, but no more / less than any other religion. And my kids played with their kids all the time.
But their political leanings are, to put it gently, VERY different from the cr@p in Chicago that Mish is used to. Their way of life and thinking about the world is VERY different from those in the Chicago region.
Its nice that many commenters have traveled extensively. But being a visitor in a foreign land (or just another state in the USA) is hardly the same as living side by side, day after day.
I doubt anyone used to Chicago living is going to meld well with Mormons…. and for that matter many Chicagoans who move south to Arizona, Texas or Florida have discovered the transition is very difficult.
Mish’s blog is supported by advertisements… most of whom think they are targeting an audience in the USA.
The few “global” advertisers (like P&G and Nestle) have discovered that all online advertising is completely ineffective.
Brexit Party is going nowhere – at least by itself
it will take Tories votes thus giving majory to Labor in a number of seats
Silliness. The Remain vote is split. Johnson will likely pick up vote from people sick of the endless debate. And it is even possible Johnson agrees to work with Farage (although I doubt it) really sticking it to split Remainers.
I like Nigel, but his public appeal for an extension in lieu of passing the WA couldn’t have helped the Brexit Party cause.
I think there is an outside chance that Boris and the Government will instead go immediately for a General Election, with the logic as follows.
First, the 31 Oct deadline is unlikely to be met, thus there is no longer the threat that of a ‘crash out’, which was the only reason that Labour delayed calling for an election.
Second, the prospect of a further protracted parliamentary process, in which various issue groups use the lack of an overall majority to extract concessions out of the Government looks unappetising.
Third, the Conservatives are way ahead in the polls, have been undertaking a tacit election campaign now for over two months. They also will be able to go to the electorate on a ticket that they can now with confidence ‘Get Brexit Done’, whilst also making the case that it is the opposition parties who are wholly responsible for the delay – and with good reason – and that their manifesto positions are, for Labour incomprehensible and, for LibDems, anti-democratic.
Accepting that there is some risk, upside is an strong majority which means that Boris and a new Government can: first, get the Deal through easily; second, secure 5 years’ worth of Conservative Government; third, be in a strong legislative position to negotiate hard in the subsequent trade discussions, free from opposition interference.
Interesting to see which way they go …
That is the basis of Heads Johnson win, tails Johnson wins.
Look like tails.
Yes, apologies Mish, hadn’t spotted that you’d got there before me! But agreed.
If they chose this route – and I would in their shoes – it will be interesting to watch the awakening reactions of key Labour players as they start to recognise that they’ve just squandered there best and possibly only chance to adjust.the Withdrawal Agreement Bill …
If they coud go to election, they would have done it long ago. They cannot force it. And Labor can always delay due to “still risks”… Nothing really chaged much… other than Boris has started losing support due to 1) bad deal 2) overpromising Oct 31 exit from EU and underdelivery…
Not sure how he’s going to force an election. It’d require the support of the very MPs who’d be swept from office.
If he agrees to any meaningful extension (beyond a couple weeks), he’s lost the game of chicken, they know he won’t no-deal Brexit, and they own him.
He either needs to carry through with his nuclear option now, or he’s done.
The risk of going for an election before Brexit is that people like me will not vote Tory if we are still in the EU. I am sure that there are a lot of people like me. Johnson’s polling is high, but it wont be so high if he doesnt deliver on Brexit or die in a ditch. If neither of those things happen then his credibility is gone. I wouldnt want to fight an election if I were him without having delivered on one promise.
Weren’t you the one who told me that I opined with no deep understanding on the EU? How come you don’t know that a GE isn’t in the liars gift? You haven’t replied to my response to your so called 5 points yet. Why not.
Now the agreement has passed the EU have a strong incentive to work with Boris to pass the legislation asap. Their fear of a no deal has become palpable with the deadline approaching – just as game theorists suggested. Remainers will try to add a referendum or customs union as amendments but why would the EU open the Withdrawal Agreement a second time? Boris now has the votes and will force an election if denied.
Thanks Mish for all your excellent work. Commentary and insights have been first rate.
No agreement has passed. This is a vast misreading of parliamentary procedure.
The EU conceded nothing to Johnson. They are perfectly comfortable with a disintegrating UK next door.
The present agreement has the in-built potential of an EU army (French and German troops) stationed in Ireland and Scotland within a couple of years. For them, it is just as good as Remain. However, they are quite open to allow the UK government another equally bad choice.
I think it is a bit strong to suggest that French and German troops would garrison Ireland and Scotland. You are right to point out that there would be EU troops in both countries but that would consist of Irish and Scots sqaddies. I wholeheartedly agree with your first sentence. One thing that has always amazed me is the brexiteers belief that the British upper classes will provide, suddenly, out of the blue, world class entrepreneurs. Does anyone else find it suspicious that the German board of directors of Thompson Holidays in one fell swoop destroyed one of the Germany tourist industry’s main British competitors yet managed to preserve the German portion of the business?
My basic expectation is a few months long extension and a general election for weeks.
However, if extension happens without the personal involvement of Corbyn, then he would have a very hard time pushing LibDems back. Labour could be destroyed in this case. At this point, the only way out for him seems to be the customs union amendment.
The EU will probably give a few weeks this time. BoJo made his homework, elitists are in good shape, too. Now the survival play begins for Corbyn. He has to show what he’s got.
Johnson is on shaky ground here. A long extension could bleed support from the Tories to the Brexit party. And we are headed for an election very soon.
That is correct. Watch new polls, Tories will be losing support as soon as Boris announces his extention. The spike for Conservatives was based on the promise to leave on Oct 31 deal or no-deal….
When will you, Boris, be “dead in the ditch” then?…
Next, Boris cannot really force elections… and without it, Tories support will be eroding… the extention will allow more critique of the deal in media …. Labor will be able to add amendments… EU will not be agreeing with and so on… forever..
Hmmm … I’m not so sure. If Boris offers Labour a general election, which they’ve stated repeatedly that they will accept, as soon as the possibility of ‘crashing out’ is off the table, why would they not accept? On what logic?
The only true reason that I can now see Labour refusing the election that they’ve asked for consistently for over 2 years is that they fear they might loose …
Mish, at what point do you think that the EU gets exasperated enough & refuses to extend any more? Or do you think that a no-deal Brexit would be so injurious as to always result in the EU offering to extend?
Bingo
The EU will not allow No Deal if it can stop on. It can stop one because the WA passed. All it has to do is offer a short extension or demand elections instead of a 3-month extension. France might be willing to do that, but any nation could. It only takes 1
What choice is there but offer a short delay? Today Junker sounded deeply tired and likely glad to see the back of it.
You are too blind a “Bojo-Head” Mish. Forget all the “winning” vs. “losing” stuff, focus on two things:
They might give him his “10/31” deadline, but my guess is that they will delay here and there in the interim, or stretch it out to early November. They don’t like being ordered around, and Johnson is not in Trump’s position – most of the voters for Tory MPs like their MP much more than they like Johnson. In the U.S. most Republican voters like Trump more than their Congresspeople or Senators, so Trump get’s to whip their asses when he feels like it.
Yes you are quite right. It was pointed out today the UK fisheries will remain under EU auspices post brexit. Another case of the liar misunderstanding his own deal. It was noticeable that the program motion was the same result as on Saturday. Several Labour MPs voted for second reading on the basis that they wanted to maul it in committee and on third reading. The liar is now 2 for 9 and is visibly ageing.
certainly starting to look like hard brexit after all. You are right Johnson will get what he wants
Hard to say what the EU will do.
Johnson will likely ask for a short 10 day delay or so. Whether the EU offers that is uncertain.
Everyone seems to be forgetting: without a request by the PM, the EU is not able to offer an extension.
I listen to what people say, and Boris keeps saying that ‘we will leave on Oct 31st.’
The Dutch Coordinator let slip that they won’t have to listen to Farage for more than three weeks more, i.e. Nov 15th.
Boris also said today that they would leave with this deal.
Looks like an extension will be granted for UK Parliamentary process to wind down but maybe only after it gets passed. And if it isn’t passed, then he’ll go for an election.
So what are we talking about here, Mish?
A 21 day extension with the deal unamended? Would that require a unanimous decision of all 27 members?
Any extension, even one day, requires approval of all 27.
Rumours Boris has spoken to Tusk and extension to end Jan 2020 suggested. In which case, Boris will pull the deal and force an election.
Rumours, huh? Well, how about we wait and hear from the EU.