Skip to main content

Polls Within the Polls Explain Johnson's Lead

A couple friends of mine are struggling to make sense of Johnson's lead. Their rationale is that half the public wants to remain, and Corbyn rates to do better than Johnson on the National Health System.

Polls within the polls from Deltaview (Nov 28-30), resolve the proposed paradox.

Johnson is clobbering Corbyn on NHS and Brexit everywhere but greater London and Scotland. And in Scotland, SNP clobbers Labour.

Same Question by Age Group

Image placeholder title

Not only is there a region divide there is an age group divide. Older voters do not like messing with healthcare. Note the group that is most evenly split as well as most undecided. 35-54

Once again, this explains the paradox of Johnson doing well on an issue that seemingly should be a Labour issue

This all makes sense to me. Again, it explains the base polls nicely.

What's Worse?

Image placeholder title

Over half the population thinks a government led by Corbyn would be worse than Johnson's Brexit deal.

Referendum? Who Wants One?

Image placeholder title

Close to half the voters may prefer to remain, but they are damn sick of the bickering. There is only support for another referendum in greater London and Scotland.

And even if there was another referendum, it is not clear how people would vote, except of course greater London and Scotland.


Labour's Fatal Mistakes

The above polls highlight Labour's two fatal mistakes.

  1. Having Jeremy Corbyn as party leader
  2. Failing to put Brexit behind

Corbyn could easily have passed Johnson's deal. That would have killed Brexit as an issue. And Brexit is an important one for even some Labour supporters.

Instead, Corbyn insisted on having a referendum that no one wants except in London and Scotland.

Strategic Blunder

Corbyn would not resign of course. Thus, his biggest strategic blunder was failure to take Brexit away as an issue so he could campaign on other things.

There is no paradox.

These polls within the polls fully explains the overall numbers and why Labour is struggling to catch up.

And YouthQuake Won't Save the Day for Labour because there are not enough young voters.

Winning London won't suffice. Besides, likelihood to vote is also reflected in the polls.

On November 19, I proposed Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.

The Deltapolls within the polls provide more evidence that is the correct idea.

Instead of believing the polls are all wrong and convoluted, there is plenty of evidence they make perfect sense if one goes digging. Few do.

Things can still change, but there are only 12 days left now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock