Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test

Before looking at the “Dilbert” method, please consider USA Today’s editorial Kavanaugh, too? Christine Blasey Ford’s account is missing key details of assault by Penny Nance.

> Two decades ago, while pregnant with my first child, I was running in Northern Virginia when I was attacked by a man much larger and stronger than myself. I survived the attempted rape — but I’ll never forget it, in fact I remember every detail all these years later.

> Twenty years after Bill Clinton — then the attorney general and highest ranking law enforcement officer in the state of Arkansas — allegedly raped Juanita Broaddrick, she remembered every detail as she told NBC’s Lisa Myers during a prime time interview. She even remembered Clinton biting her lip during the attack and smirking as he left the room — arrogantly telling her she needed to take care of it.

> Ford can’t remember the year the incident happened, she can’t remember how she got to the house party, or how she got home. She told no one about it at the time and the issue came to the forefront during a couples therapy session six years ago. Her therapist’s notes never mention Kavanaugh and actually mention four boys involved, although she says there were only two.

> Judge Kavanaugh has vigorously denied Ford’s claim, not just saying this particular incident didn’t happen but that no such incident happened in his entire life. The Senate Judiciary Committee, and the American people, are scheduled to hear from both of them on Monday.

> Supporters of Kavanaugh are rightly infuriated this charge has been leveled at the 11th hour. Ford initially wanted to remain anonymous, as she told ranking Judiciary Committee member Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) back in July. Feinstein didn’t act on the allegations for almost two months, which means she either didn’t find them credible or she plotted to cause this chaos by holding onto them on the eve of his committee confirmation vote.

> She didn’t bring it up to Judge Kavanaugh when she met with him privately her office, it wasn’t raised in his 17,000 page questionnaire, she didn’t raise it during two full days of public hearings — or a private session afterward to discuss his background, she didn’t raise it any of the nearly 1,300 follow-up questions he had to answer after the hearings.

> Sexual assault is real and claims should not be dismissed. But an innocent man should not be denied all he’s worked for based on allegations from someone who can’t remember key details.

Fuzzy Memories

Ford says that Kavanaugh was drunk and that Kavanaugh and one other male, Mark Judge, attacked her.

Her therapist’s notes from 2012 say there were four male assailants, but Ms. Ford says that was a mistake. She now says there were two male assailants, but there were four males at the party. Ford says this is an error on the therapist’s part.

Questions Abound

  • How many women were at the party?
  • Was this a party of all guys plus Ford?
  • Was Ford herself too drunk to remember?
  • Are we to believe that only the men at the party were drinking?
  • Where the hell are the female witnesses?

Mistaken Identity

The Orlando Sentinel discusses instances of mistaken identity in an editorial entitled What if … accuser was assaulted, but Brett Kavanaugh didn’t do it?

> Could there have been another, Kavanaugh-ish-looking teen at the house that night, who might have attacked Ford? (For his part, Judge has written in a memoir that he was a ubiquitous presence at alcohol-drenched parties during high school.)

> If he were still alive, one need only ask John Dillinger’s doppelganger, a poor fellow by the name of Ralph Alsman. Dillinger and Alsman shared an incredible physical resemblance, including similar moles next to one eye and matching scars on their left wrists.

> Thanks to their mirror images, Alsman was arrested 17 times — and shot 11 times! Although he was released after each arrest, he endured repeated interrogations and lived in constant fear that he would eventually be killed. Dillinger was fatally shot on July 22, 1934, ending Alsman’s horror story of the absurd.

There not need be a perfect twin, especially if Ford herself had a bit too much to drink.

Mark Judge

CNN offers this assessment: Christine Blasey Ford, says there was one other person in the room when the alleged incident took place: Kavanaugh’s then-classmate, Mark Judge.

Judge, a journalist and filmmaker, has also denied that the incident took place. “It’s just absolutely nuts. I never saw Brett act that way,” Judge told The Weekly Standard in an interview on Friday.

Redacted Letter to Feinstein – Unknown Second Assailant

Please consider the Letter Christine Blasey Ford Sent to Senator Diane Feinstein accusing Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct. Here is an image clip of a portion of it.

Patrick J. Smyth – Second Major Denial

Please consider Former Kavanaugh classmate denies knowing about party, being present during alleged sexual assault.

> A former classmate of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who was identified as the man in the room during the alleged sexual assault, denies any knowledge of the party in question or any inappropriate conduct by Kavanaugh.

> Patrick J. Smyth, who was a classmate of Kavanaugh’s at Georgetown Prep, was identified as the friend “PJ” in Ford’s account of the allegations.

> “I understand that I have been identified by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford as the person she remembers as ‘PJ’ who supposedly was present at the party she described in her statements to the Washington Post,” Smyth says in his statement to the Senate Judiciary Committee, CNN reported. “I am issuing this statement today to make it clear to all involved that I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct she has leveled against Brett Kavanaugh.”

Very Messy “How Many” Story

This story is getting quite messy.

Were there three guys in the attack room or two? Four as the therapist’s notes say?

Is the claim that Smyth was merely at the party as opposed to being in the room?

Dilbert Denials

On October 17, 2016 Dilbert creator Scott Adams wrote an interesting column called Lie Detection and Scandals.

> When Clinton’s surrogates respond to questions about Wikileaks by saying the Russians are behind it, that’s an acknowledgment of guilt. Guilty people almost always question the source of the information first. Innocent people start with a clear denial, or sometimes confusion as to why the question is being asked.

> Some guilty people will give you a straight denial if they know the question is coming and they prepared for it. For example, Bill Clinton famously said of Monica Lewinsky, “I did not have sexual relations with that woman.” A firm denial from a prepared witness doesn’t mean anything. But a lack of denial, combined with questioning the source, is almost always a lie.

Did You Do It?

> Notice that you can’t always tell the difference between an honest answer and a well-coached liar. But the liar without good coaching is as obvious as a lighthouse. When Clinton surrogates redirect any question about Wikileaks to “Russia did it” they are confirming that they believe the content is real and damaging. They just don’t realize they are confirming it.

The article predates these charges and hits the nail squarely on the head.

Fuzzy Details vs Specific Denial

In contrast to Ford’s vague memory and confusing details, Kavanaugh issued a very specific denial. He “categorically and unequivocally” denied Ford’s allegations at that time or any time. He claims he attended no such party.

Kavanaugh’s specific denial puts him at huge risk if any portion of it was true. Indeed, he is even at huge risk of a lie: someone who claims to have been at the party but wasn’t.

Smyth also offered a detailed and specific denial: “I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct she has leveled against Brett Kavanaugh.”

The only fuzzy denial was that of Mark Judge: “It’s just absolutely nuts. I never saw Brett act that way.

Of the three men, Judge was the only person who failed to deny being at such parties.

Add It Up

Add it all up and it is overwhelmingly likely that Kavanaugh is totally innocent. From the outset, he made very specific denials as did Smyth more recently.

If he was at that party (assuming there was a party), he ran a serious risk of being refuted by someone else who was there. He also ran the risk of being outed in a purposeful lie by someone not at the party, but simply out to get him.

There is a miniscule chance that Kavanaugh was prepared. But Clinton, unlike Kavanaugh (knew there was only one other person in the room). Clinton mistakenly presumed she would not yap.

It’s hard to believe Kavanaugh would have made that kind of mistake.

65 Women Came to Kavanaugh’s Defense in Hours

Please consider How 65 women came to Kavanaugh’s defense in matter of hours

Unlike Ford supporters, these 65 women actually knew Kavanaugh.

Overwhelming Conclusion

Ford is confusing Kavanaugh with someone else, either purposely or accidentally.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach
5 years ago

A big issue with antique she said/he said situations is any contemporaneous documentation which can help us understand the broader situation at the time.

An astute individual downloaded the yearbooks from Chrissie’s (as her friends knew her) school, before they were recently scrubbed. Just as the rest of Chrissie’s on-line trail has been scrubbed. (Curious!)

The yearbooks portray an Upper Middle Class teenage society which was decadent, even compared to my recollections of the times. Party Hearty, with heavy under-age drinking, frequent irresponsibility, and implied promiscuity, with an occasional tinge of racism. And this is the sanitized version of those girls lives, which was approved by the teachers and seen by the parents!

I am coming round to the point of view that Chrissie must be prosecuted, shamed, and destroyed, for the greater good of society as a whole. Not only is she interfering wrongly in the confirmation process of a Supreme Court judge, she is casting doubt on any woman’s real tale of sexual assault. And that is tragic, because the real victims of sexual abuse are not the rich white girls living on the edge of the Swamp — it is the poor lower class girls from broken homes being used in places like England, while the media and the police look the other way.

Carl_R
Carl_R
5 years ago

A person would not have had to look like Kavanaugh. She would just need to have been confused, or mistaken.

Greggg
Greggg
5 years ago

It’s a joke… I’m just gonna sit back and wait for the punchline.

shamrock
shamrock
5 years ago

“What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep. That’s been good for all of us.”: Brett Kavanaugh, Columbia Law School, 2015.

pi314
pi314
5 years ago
Reply to  shamrock

Are you suggesting that Kavanaugh is now also guilty of any alleged crime in plagiarism, thief, assault, alcoholism, and lying? You are either a dumb person or a despicable person.

RonJ
RonJ
5 years ago

Karen Monahan tweet: “I’ve been smeared, threatened, isolated from my own party.”

She has accused Keith Ellison of domestic abuse. The Democratic Party is treating her differently than they are treating Ford. Double standard.

Ron Cataldi
Ron Cataldi
5 years ago

Because a fabulist’s first instinct is to ask for an FBI investigation?

Brian1
Brian1
5 years ago
Reply to  Ron Cataldi

When the fabulist knows there is nothing that the FBI can investigate, yes. Especially with the added bonus of being able to claim “Kavanaugh was investigated by the FBI for attempted rape!!!”

These accusations are simply a new weapon in the Left’s arsenal to be used against those who disagree with them politically and keep beating them at the ballot box.

Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach
5 years ago

One thing that is entirely clear — Diane Feinstein (she of the Chinese spy gofer) completely mishandled this. If the Senate were to censure her for her misconduct and bad judgment, it would go some way to assuring the citizens that the Political Class still have some residual class.

Webej
Webej
5 years ago
Reply to  Kinuachdrach

gopher

Mish
Mish
5 years ago
Reply to  Kinuachdrach

We need to define “mishandled”.
It’s possible, if not likely, her timing was on purpose to throw a monkey wrench into the mid-term elections.
If so, it’s also possible that it works.
The Democrats would not label this as “mishandled”.
Your opinion or mine may not be relevant.

2banana
2banana
5 years ago

Can Kavanaugh use the DNC Chairman Kieth Ellison defense of avoiding any media focus or questioning by other politicians?”

“Congressman’s ex-girlfriend posts doctor’s notes to corroborate abuse allegations”

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