September 17, 2021
Key GDP Takeaway: Ever Weakening Real Final Demand
Publish date:

Key GDP Takeaway: Ever Weakening Real Final Demand

What’s the most important metric in GDP report on Friday? Caroline Baum tweets that it’s private final demand, the slowest in three years, excluding the first quarter of 2016.
Author:
What’s the most important metric in GDP report on Friday? Caroline Baum tweets that it’s private final demand, the slowest in three years, excluding the first quarter of 2016.

by Mish

Ever Weakening Real Final Demand

A slightly different metric better highlights ever-weakening demand.

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product % Change From Year Ago

Image placeholder title

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

I downloaded that data into an Excel spreadsheet capturing the yearly high for each year since 1950.

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product – Yearly Highs Since 1950

Image placeholder title

This is an ominous looking trend.

Real final sales of domestic product compared to the previous year trend lower as deficit spending and Fed printing rise.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Real GDP Increases 2.9% Led by Exports; Expect Revisions

Real GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) if 2.9% according to the BEA’s Advance Estimate.

First-Quarter Real GDP 0.7%; Spending Slowest Since 2009: Nowcast Model Needs Serious Work

First quarter real GDP came in at 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus estimate of 1.1%. Consumer spending was the weakest since the 4th quarter of 2009.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

New Measures of “Satisfactory”: First Quarter GDP Revised Up to a “Satisfactory” 1.4%

In the third and final estimate of first quarter GDP, the BEA upped its assessment of GDP from 1.2% to 1.4%. The Econoday consensus expected no change.

Advance GDP 2.3% vs 2.0 Consensus: Consumer Spending Weakens

GDP came in ahead of the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.0%. Spending on goods declined.

M1 Money Supply vs. Real GDP

Here are a few interesting charts of M1 money supply vs. Real GDP/10 from reader WendyBG.

Ignore the Headline, Real GDP is Much Worse Than It Looks

The initial estimate of 4th-Quarter GDP was 2.1%, about where analysts expected. but the details are another matter.

2nd Quarter GDP Final Estimate Tomorrow: Up or Down from Prior?

The BEA’s third (final) estimate of second-quarter GDP is due Thursday. The Econoday consensus is the BEA will up the reading to 3.1% from 3.0%.