Improvement Revised Away

Last Thursday, initial jobless claims dipped to a reported 793,000 for the weekending February 6.

Today the BLS reports a revised 848,000 claims with an increase to 861,000 for the week ending February 13.  

No Progress Since September 12

On September 12, initial unemployment claims were 866,000. Since then, initial claims meandered from a November 7 low of 711,000 to a high of 927,000 on January 9. 

Continued State Unemployment Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims  2021-02-18 Report

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We have seen slow progress in continued unemployment claims but much of this is masked by people expiring all of their state benefits and falling off the roles onto various federal programs.

The federal numbers are so skewed by fraud, reporting errors, and double counting distortions that I stopped posting them.

Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%.

That is far more believable than the BLS assertion that the unemployment rate is down to 6.3%.

However, Powell went off the deep end regarding one of the alleged cures. Please click on the above link for discussion.

Mish

16.78 Million Unemployment Claims in Last 3 Weeks

Unemployment claims rose 6.606 million in the week of April 4, the third consecutive miserable week.

Unemployment Claims More Than Double Last Week's Record Total

Initial unemployment claims more than double last weeks total, and last week was then the largest in history.

Unemployment Claims Have the Largest Increase Since March 2020

Initial Claims Jumped by 181,000. That's the largest increase since the massive surge of 3.6 million on March 28, 2020.

Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims Recession Warning

Will initial unemployment claims provide a recession warning? If so, how long?

Amazing Revisions and Alleged Thrifty Consumers

In its latest report, the BEA revised spending down and income up. As a result, the savings rate rose.