Let's check out the logic of Twitter poster Heather Lou.

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HL quickly corrected the typo to "carries" so please ignore that. People make typos all the time and it is not relevant to the discussion.

The logic presented is important. I have have seen numerous similar accusations "Kavanaugh has everything to gain by lying."

By such logic every person accused of anything is guilty. They either admit it, or they are accused of lying.

Guilt by Accusation

The logic is fatally broken because it presumes guilt: "of course he would deny it".

Actually, people confess to things all the time, even if the percentage is low.

More importantly, and in direct contrast to exceptionally fuzzy details claimed by Ford, Kavanaugh issued very specific denials.

By stating he was not at any such party, he opened himself to to a witness coming forward to say that he was indeed there.

I discussed this yesterday in Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test

The post involves discussion by Dilbert creator Scott Adams in how to tell whether or not someone is lying. If you missed that article please give it a look.

The /#MeToo'ers and people like HL do not give a damn about real logic, or tells as discussed above.

They prefer to hide by nonsensical sayings that assume guilt. I will give HL a chance to re-think this and if she admits the silliness of her "guilt by accusation" Tweet, I will be happy to update this post.

Ed Whelan

Highly respected political commentator Ed Whelan created quite a stir with this Tweet.

Politico reports Kavanaugh Saga Sets Washington Rumor Mill on Fire

> On Tuesday evening, Ed Whelan, a conservative activist and legal commentator, posted a remarkable claim about the charge of sexual assault against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

> “By one week from today, I expect that Judge Kavanaugh will have been clearly vindicated on this matter,” Whelan wrote. “Specifically, I expect that compelling evidence will show his categorical denial to be truthful. There will be no cloud over him.”

> In a follow-up tweet, he added for good measure: “Senator [Dianne] Feinstein will soon be apologizing to Judge Kavanaugh.” Feinstein is the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee and the first senator to learn about the accusation against Kavanaugh.

> Whelan, who is president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, has since remained cryptically tight-lipped. But his tweet, along with the perception that he is a sober-minded straight shooter, triggered intense speculation among conservatives and even White House aides about whether he had information that could acquit Kavanaugh.

> Adding to the intrigue, Whelan has told at least three associates that his confidence level in his assertions is “close to 100 percent.”

It's easy to speculate: Perhaps someone who was at the party denies Kavanaugh was there.

Such speculations are best left aside so I await Whelan's blockbuster. I am even open to the possibility there is no real blockbuster. But here's an interesting follow-up.

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Oops Department

Here's a big one in the Oops Department

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The Woman Lied

Bookman is from the Atlanta Journal Constitution. The woman he referred to, Cristina King Miranda, lied.

The NPR discusses the setup: Kavanaugh Accuser's Classmate: 'That It Happened Or Not, I Have No Idea'

> A former classmate of Christine Blasey Ford tells NPR that she does not know if an alleged sexual assault by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh took place as she first suggested on social media.

> "That it happened or not, I have no idea," told NPR's Nina Totenberg. "I can't say that it did or didn't."

> That's different from what Miranda wrote Wednesday in a now-deleted Facebook post that stated definitively, "The incident DID happen, many of us heard about it in school."

"Empowered" to Lie

"In my [Facebook] post, I was empowered and I was sure it probably did [happen]," Miranda told NPR. "I had no idea that I would now have to go to the specifics and defend it before 50 cable channels and have my face spread all over MSNBC news and Twitter."

Well, when you are "sure" something "probably" happened then you state emphatically that it did, yes, the media will follow you.

No More Interviews

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Another lie bites the dust.

Unfortunately, the presumption of guilt remains even though Ford does not have the courage to step forward.

Note: shortly after I penned that, it appears Ford is willing to testify: Kavanaugh Accuser Opens Negotiations on Testimony Next Week

Republicans had decided to hire an outside counsel to lead their questioning of Dr. Blasey, rather than the committee members themselves, according to a Republican Senate official familiar with the decision. Although they have yet to hire someone to fill the role, the Republicans have been eager to avoid the image of 11 male senators questioning Dr. Blasey about her account.

Instead, they are seeking to enlist the help of an experienced litigator familiar with assault cases.

My conclusion does not come close to changing.

Overwhelming Conclusion

Ford is confusing Kavanaugh with someone else, either purposely or accidentally.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock