Record Tie?

Another Record?

121 Months?

Longest Ever?

First Decade With No Recession?

STOP!

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I could go on. There are lots more where those came from.

The NBER is the official arbiter of recessions. It is possible one has already started.

Is so, we may not know for a full year. There are plenty of signs.

Hold Your Horses

  1. The last recession started in December of 2007.
  2. At the time, there were zero quarters of negative growth.
  3. The NBER did not set the recession date for a full year.

It may be likely (or not), but it is by no means certain we just set a record expansion. Some of those Tweeters ought to know better.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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