Today’s story from France is exactly what I have predicted about Theresa May’s acceptance of a kluge backstop that is unlikely to end without escalating demands from the EU.
French president Emmanuel Macron’s Blunt Brexit Warning to UK Over Fishing Rights is precisely what I had in mind.
Several EU leaders highlighted fishing as a particularly sensitive issue. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said talks on fisheries were “undoubtedly going to be an area where negotiations are going to be tough”.
But the bluntest warning came from the French President Emmanuel Macron, who suggested that if the UK was unwilling to compromise in negotiations on fishing, which would need to make rapid progress, then talks on a wider trade deal would be slow.
“We as 27 have a clear position on fair competition, on fish, and on the subject of the EU’s regulatory autonomy, and that forms part of our position for the future relationship talks,” he said.
“I can’t imagine that the desire of Theresa May or her supporters is to remain for the long term in a customs union, but (instead) to define a proper future relationship that resolves this problem.”
Temporary Permanence
Theresa May already sold the farm for a pittance.
The EU agreed to an Irish backstop but it’s temporary. Details will follow.
Trust me, there will be lots of following details. Here are some key blackmail items.
- Fishing rights
- Gibraltar
- Corporate tax rates
- Climate change
It won’t stop there.
I Tweeted about this on November 18 before Macron’s fishing threat.
Not the Final Deal
France Has More Demands Already
That’s just France!
Wait till Germany and Spain and all 27 EU nations get into the act.
Theresa May supports the stupidest trade deal in history.
Brexit Musical Tribute
The 585-page Brexit deal was so one-sided that 6 UK ministers resigned and Parliament openly laughed at PM Theresa May.
On November 16, I offered a musical tribute: Smiling Faces Show No Traces of Evil That Lurks Within
It’s fitting that I ended with this comment “The UK should take a pass on this rotten kettle of fish.”
And here we are, talking about fish on top of climate change demands.
This admission of the obvious truth from Macron may very well tip the UK parliament into rejecting the deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If the British were serious they would tell the EU straight.
We are not making MORE deals. WE are leaving. THAT is the only issue.
We’re not negotiating to pay you off, WE are out.
Whatever ‘crapy’ deal the UK get it, they deserve it! It is their karma of last several centuries catching up with them! No tears here!
Entangling alliances are something Jefferson warned of.
But, but, but … UK membership in a Customs Union with its major bilateral trade partners (the EU’s 27 countries with a wealthy population larger than US, Canada, & Mexico combined) would mean Zero Tariffs on the international trade which really counts. We keep hearing that Zero Tariffs are the royal road to wealth. And these would be bilateral Zero Tariffs, not unilateral. Clearly, there is something I am missing here.
US, Canada, and Mexico have over 40 million more residents (490m) than the EU 27 (446m). The EU needs the UK to have a higher population.
Thank you for the correction. So the UK is currently in a Zero Tariff Customs Union with over half-a-billion people. When the UK leaves the Customs Union, the Zero Tariffs go away. Why is that not a Bad Thing?
In isolation, maybe it is a bad thing from a purely economic perspective. However, being a member of the EU is not a purely economic arrangement. The people of the UK may believe the positives in the form of increased control and sovereignty, in many areas of life, outweigh the benefits of the customs union. For some people, I suspect the economic side of Brexit had little to do with their vote and it was just a visceral reaction to what is viewed as outsiders controlling the country. A common human reaction.
Even if it is proven definitively that Brexit hurt the UK economically decades from now, it doesn’t necessarily follow that Brexit will still not be a success. If nothing else, at least it will extricate the UK from the EU. Besides, will the EU be around decades from now anyway?
I share your view that the EU is not likely to survive. Unfortunately, there are other overly-bureaucratic, deeply indebted, ponzi-scheme running governments in the world that are also not likely to survive — at least not in their current form.
And I agree with your implied view that tariffs are only one factor out of many in the life of a country, and that elimination of tariffs (as in the EU) may be a price that is too high to pay, even when the elimination of tariffs is bi-lateral.
As a ‘Leave’ Voter I can tell you that no matter what you may read neither immigration nor the economics played a part in my decision and in that of most of my friends to vote Leave. We did so to recover our Sovereignty and indeed to defend our Law.
If I set these things aside (which I hold dear) another reason for me was the treatment of Greece by the EU. I have lived in Greece and have many friends there, and I have been totally shocked at what has happened there. I know all the arguments but the reality is the EU has been party to destroying a third of the Greek economy. To put that in perspective that is a greater loss than any economy suffered in the Great Depression and we all know how that ended.
The Customs Union is actually not beneficial to the UK because of the nature of our trade and interests. There are something like 13000+ tariffs which are most deigned to protect Continental European interests. For example there is a 16% tariff on Citrus. Now Oranges and Lemons don’t grow in the UK so I fail to see how that is in our interest: it isn’t, but it is in Spain’s. On some cuts of beef the tariff is about 40% and while we have a sizeable beef industry this benefits Ireland handsomely. Many of the tariffs are on food, clothing and footwear and manufactures most of which bear most heavily on the poor.
As I have written from the beginning over two years now- the negotiations to this point have been a charade on both sides. May’s only goal for her entire tenure as PM has been to make the negotiations into such a mess that she is forced to “reluctantly go to the people for a second referendum” to let them decide whether they whether they want to take the bad deal, or to stay in the EU. The Remain faction will ensure they win this time even if they have to cheat to do so.
The joker in the pack is Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party leader. He is saying he will vote against May’s agreement when it comes up for a vote in December. Maybe. If Labour and the Irish DUP and the Brexiteer Tories all vote down the agreement, it will not be ratified.
The problem is that Corbyn, a socialist, doesn’t really support Brexit and he’s going to be torn between scuttling May and the Tories and scuttling Brexit.
Corbyn has long been a Eurosceptic. Although Labour formally supported the remain campaign, the support was lukewarm at best. Corbyn voted to leave the European Economic community in 1975 and against the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. He’s more of a nationalist socialist in the Chavez mold.
Taking down May, achieving Brexit, and being able to blame May for any mess, would be a win, win, win for him.
In ’75 and ’93, the EU was presented as a “Capitalist” ploy to allow the “capitalists” the opportunity to substitute dark skinned Mediterraneans for UK workers. Now the debate is framed almost entirely opposite.
Not when it comes to immigration. Half the debate is about controlling the borders and I think he still wants to do that to “protect” UK workers. Besides, he also broke with the Labour whip to vote for having a Brexit referendum in 2011. The day after the Brexit vote, Corbyn called for an immediate invocation of Article 50 to leave. For all his faults, the guy has been consistent on this.
You may be right about Corbyn. If immigration is that big a focus for Labor in the UK. In general, those across the continent who are eurosceptics, have certainly shifted from being the of left, to of the right, over the past decade or so.
You’re right regarding the shift generally, but Corbyn is a unique leftist. Still dangerous though.
Theresa May is a damn fool and you only have to start reading this idiotic agreement to see that. She has humiliated her country and she will destroy her party with this nonsense. By rights she ought to be sent to The Tower, tried in Westminster Hall and ‘suffer’ on Tower Hill. That was the fate of Traitors.
This just reinforces my belief that these scoundrels are interested more of promoting the cause of one world government/one world market than they are to the welfare of the people that elected them. May should rot.
There are no negotiations with socialists. Especially those about to run out of other people’s money.
Just put troops on the border. Leave the EU overnight. Stop all illegal invaders. Sign free trade agreements with Russia and America. Enforce fishing territories with the Navy.
Sounds about right.
Except, don’t sign anything with anyone. Those in the UK who feel like signing stuff, can perfectly well do it on their own. Binding on themselves and themselves only.
Implicitly handing power to politicians to do anything at all, is never a good thing for anyone but the politicians themselves, and their army of leeching sycophants.
Does the UK still have a Royal Navy? OK — that is half-joking. But only half-joking.
One obvious problem with this approach is that both President Trump and President Putin are not part of the Davos Globalist set — there would have to be something in those deals for Russia and the US, and everyone would know that the UK would be dealing from a position of weakness. And after decades of London whining & sniping & interfering in US elections, there is no great reservoir of sympathy in the US for the Brits anymore. Let’s not even mention London’s highly strained relationship with Russia. As they used to say, payback is a bitch.
The other obvious problem is that the UK cannot feed itself — it has to import food. That puts a real restraint on how tough the UK can be versus the EU, at least in the short term.
“Today’s story from France is exactly what I have predicted about Theresa May’s acceptance of a kluge backstop that is unlikely to end without escalating demands from the EU.”
May doesn’t really appear to want to leave the EU anyway, so i would expect her to accept anything that would scuttle Brexit, other than in false name only.