The September 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® isn't pretty, to say the least.
The overall index, new orders, and production are all negative. Export orders are in severe contraction, down for the third month.
Trade-War Comments by Manufacturers
- “Continued softening in the global automotive market. Trade-war impacts also have localized effects, particularly in select export markets. Seeing warehouses filling again after what appeared to be a short reduction of demand.” (Chemical Products)
- “Chinese tariffs going up are hurting our business. Most of the materials are not made in the U.S. and made only in China.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Economy seems to be softening. The tariffs have caused much confusion in the industry.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
Placing the Blame
This surely is not "all" Trump's doing.
The percentage is debatable and a recession was due anyway. But Trump definitely exacerbated global problems that were already building.
No one wins trade wars.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock