Tuesday afternoon I replied to an interesting Tweet on an alleged deal between France and Germany on the immigration crisis.
The problem is the CSU will not play along with Eurozone finances https://t.co/J5ZFiGNiVj
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) June 19, 2018
Mish: “The problem is the CSU will not play along with Eurozone finances.”
Let’s take another look, starting with Wednesday morning comments from Eurointelligence. Emphasis is mine.
Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have an agreement. Whether you can call it historic, like Les Échos did, is another question. The roadmap has yet to be endorsed by other eurozone countries, and is prone to cause Merkel more trouble at home. The CSU already has called on the coalition committee to discuss the Meseberg results today. Bild reports this morning that the CSU’s leadership is extremely unhappy about Merkel’s acceptance of important parts of Macron’s agenda. We wonder whether this might be open up another fault-line in the coalition in addition to immigration policy.
What exactly did the two decide upon for the eurozone? No big-bang reforms, no fait accompli for other member states, but broad principles for the budget and the banking union. Yes, you can call it historic in that Merkel agreed on the concept of a eurozone budget with own resources to be used to strengthen economic convergence within the eurozone. This had been a big German No in the past. It is also historic in a sense that the two decided to embark on a reform that will require a treaty change. Over the last few years, proposals were often dismissed for that reason alone.
But the size of the budget and the details of how it will work have yet to be worked out. This is left to the eurogroup, who need to come up with a proposal by the end of the year.
We were struck by the main headline in FAZ this morning: Macron supports Angela Merkel in her refugee policies. Is this true?
Macron said he agrees with Merkel that both want to achieve a harmonisation of asylum law in the EU. And their joint declaration condemns unilateral and un-coordinated action that would endanger Schengen. This is a clear snipe at Horst Seehofer’s declared intention to send migrants back, starting July.
We consider this a fairly meaningless statement since progress for an EU wide deal is held up by the refusal of countries to agree to binding quotas. France is one of them, and Macron has not shifted his position. And we doubt very much that the likes of Matteo Salvini and Seehofer will be impressed by the joint declaration. Seehofer said European efforts had failed, and that it was time for domestic solutions. And Salvini has previously talked about an exit from Schengen. We are not sure what problem this would solve for him. Most of Italy’s refugees do not come across the Schengen border, and he could flood the EU with unregistered refugees if he kept that border open – a much more potent weapon than a Schengen exit.
Stephan Löwenstein has an informed comment in FAZ on the role of Austria in this debate, the country that will take over the EU presidency as of July. Sebastian Kurz is a political ally of Seehofer and of Jens Spahn, Angela Merkel’s conservative opponent inside the CDU. Kurz and Spahn were spotted having a coffee in a public cafe in Berlin. Vienna is also outwardly relaxed about Seehofer’s threat to send back registered migrants – even though they would be sent back at the Austrian border. But Löwenstein notes that the position of the German and the Austrian right are hardly compatible, since they have different material interests.
Vienna’s main focus in its EU presidency will be the protection of the EU’s external border, and in particular the strengthening of Frontex. This is obviously not a project that can be implemented within a short time. Even if the European Council agreed on a road map for reform of Frontex, we doubt it would be sufficient to bring the likes of Seehofer and Salvini on board. Merkel’s problem remains unresolved.
Deeper and Deeper Holes
That was all too easy to predict.
With every move, Merkel keeps digging deeper and deeper holes.
Immigration problems US Style
In the US, Public Outcry Forces Trump’s Hand: Executive Order Prohibiting Family Separation Coming.
Here’s the fundamental issue behind the problem: “There is an unlimited demand for free benefits and services.“
Open borders and free benefits do not mix. For discussion, please see Trump’s Immoral Immigration Tactics: What’s the Libertarian View?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I agree that the major fault of the Italian approach – so far – has been based on requesting burden sharing rather than stopping the human trafficking altogether. Italy, especially the now buried left-wing governments of the recent past, would have permitted half of Africa to enter illegally and pass through – if only the rest of the EU would take its share of migrants.
This is why France and Austria did Europe a favour in stopping migrants crossing from Italy at the border. Faced with the prospect of being flooded by migrants without a let out valve, Italy started to take action, like giving the Lybians the means to partially stop the trafficking (patrol boats, maintenance capabilities, control centres and Godknows how much money to the local militias).
The Australian solution remains the only remedy as the refugees hotspots in whatever location would not allow economic migrants to pass, so the illegal trade would not stop.
You are right, in Australia only legal immigration. Even recognised refugees are given asylum in Papua. Can one of the Maghreb countries or Egypt be Europe’s Papua?
The conte demands that macron and Merkel support are nothing like the australian model. In australian model nobody gets to australia.
Regarding the correct spelling of the names: auto-correct acting up…
When conte’s plans come true and asylum seekers can ask for asylum in Europe in their home countries in africa or middle-east or in libya millions who do not have money to pay smugglers for the boat ride will ask asylum. The acceptance rates will be very high because every somalian, south sudanese, congolese and eritrean can ask asylum in Europe from africa. Conte’s demands are insane.
Conte wants to have asylum centers in asylum seekers home countries and also in libya where conte wants to process asylum claims and give out asylums in Europe, he said so with merkel and macron and they agreed. This would lead to millions claiming asylum and millions getting it. Conte also demands automatic and obligatory relocation of asylum seekers from italy around eu which would mean getting to italy would mean most getting to germany or other welfare country and that would mean hundreds of thousands would come to italy. Please spread what i wrote in italy in italian because what conte demands is insane and would create a crisis worse than 2015.
Just to clarify: the Australian solution provides that all migrants saved at sea be taken straight to the (African) hotspot. If the Australian case is of any guide, very few if any would embark on a deadly journey and pay a hefty smuggling fee only to be shipped back to Africa.
JL1 believe it or not I have read your whole post and found it absolutely informing and very true…until the last part. I am not aware that Lybia is being proposed as a base for migrants processing centres (hotspots). Hotspots in Africa would not be run by locals but probably by UN agencies or the EU itself. As real refugees are only about 10% of those crossing rhe sea, this would create a problem of detaining/repatriating the remaining 90%. The host country must be willing to do both things (for a fee by the EU). This is the Australian solution, where the host country is Papua. Have the Europeans the stomach and determination to do this?
(By the way the two Italian polititians are Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio).
Furthermore germany could stop both registered and unregistered asylum seekers at the border and turn them back even if they ask asylum since germanys neighbors are all safe countries. France has been stopping both registered and unregistered asylum seekers at their border with italy since summer of 2015. French border police do NOT accept asylum requests at the border since italy is a safe country and according to dublin agreement people should claim asylum in italy. In border crossings french border police stop people entering. In the trains crossing the border french border policr check papers and id from suspicious looking people and asylum seekers and illegal immigrants are taken off the train at the first stop in france and given a van ride back to italy. There are even pictures of french border police pepper spraying African migrants in the face that try to run across the border at ventimiglia. France has been doing this since summer of 2015 because italy left over 50% of the people they saved from the sea unregistered and just hoped they would go to some other country to claim asylum like germany or sweden which give large welfare benefits and had large acceptance rates for asylum claims. France has less welfare and large failure rates for asylum claims and more strict asylum process. In 2013 then prime minister of italy matteo renzi who is a leftist started giving boat rides for migrants from the coast of libya to italy because one smuggler boat with hundreds of migrants capsized and everyone drowned. Since italy gave rides from the libyan coast to italy smugglers could use even worse boats and cram even more people into them since they needed to get just few miles out to sea before being saved by italy and this led also the smuggling fees dropping which led to more and more people coming. To solve this problem renzi had himself created the italian authorities just did NOT register the people saved at sea as asylum seekers and hoped they would go somewhere else. In 2014 italy saved 170 000 people from the sea but only registered 70 000 as asylum seekers as reported by newsweek at the time meaning they intentionally “lost” over 100 000 people who claimed asylum in other eu countries that give free welfare Money and free apartments and have large acceptance rates like germany and sweden. Of course italian pm renzi’s plan failed because these over 100 000 called Back home and sent messages By Facebook telling how they got through italy without registration and got free Money and free apartments in germany, sweden, netherlands, Belgium, norway, finland, austria, france etc. Which led to even more people coming to italy in 2015. If there would have been no way to get through italy to welfare countries much less people would have come since italy gives NO welfare benefits and even people who get asylum in italy sleep on the streets unless they work and pay for their own apartment so leftist renzi created the problem salvini and di matteo were complaining about. So far league’s Salvini and 5 star’s di Matteo and new Italian prime minister Conte seem clueless because salvini has NOT started registering everyone coming despite being interior minister and the only good thing he has done is turn away a few NGO ships but Italy”s own ships still pick hundreds and hundreds from libyan coast and bring them to italy and Conte demands automatic and obligatory relocation of migrants and asylum seekers coming to italy around europe which means coming to italy would mean most getting to germany and sweden and other welfare countries by eu process which would make italy as desirable as germany and sweden themselves which would mean hundreds of thousands coming to italy from Libya. If the same obligatory and automatic eu relocation would also apply to greece then millions of syrians would immediately come from turkey to greece since turkey has 3-4 million syrians and i am sure most would like free welfare money and free apartment and free healthcare and free university and free school and free daycare and 150+ euros in child benefits for each child and free unemployment benefit money and asylum and permanent residence in germany and sweden other welfare countries of europe with high taxes and generous benefits and would come to greece to get it in the millions if the automatic and obligatory eu relocation of asylum seekers is started that Conte demands and that Merkel and Macron have said they support. Conte also said when having meetings with Merkel and Macron that he wants asylum centers in African nations where asylum seekers are coming from and such centers should accept asylum claims, process asylum claims and should give out asylums in EUROPE to avoid people drowning and that One such center should be in Libya and Merkel and Macron agreed. This would of course mean millions would leave asylum claims and millions would be accepted and since One such center would be in Libya even those who would not be accepted would be just sea ride away from italy. The plan Conte demands and that Macron and Merkel support is insane and would lead to much more people coming to Europe than 2015. Do Salvini and Di Matteo know what their prime minister Conte is demanding and what Macron and Merkel are supporting? If they know and approve of Conte’s demands then both Salvini and di Mateo are either incompetent of insane…
Seehofer’s “fight” with Merkel was a scam to fool voters and afd since what seehofer demanded was a miniscule thing with no real effect. Seehofer wanted to send back at the border asylum seekers already registered in other eu countries and this is only few hundred people a month according to german police and germany can already send these Back in a few days as dublin returns according to current dublin agreement. If germany is not doing this already it means bamf the german immigration agency is either totally incompetent or not sending them back on purpose because of politicized merkelian leadership at bamf. Actually according to current dublin agreement germany could have sent hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers back since 2015 even if they had not registered in greece or italy because the current dublin agreement has a procedure to send back to the first eu country even people not registered there if there is proof they came through that country such as their own admission or gps logs in their phone or they having a prepaid Greek of italian sim card and phone number like many had or Social media activity in Greece or italy or pictures from Greece of italy, the country sending Dublin returns like this has to just activate the process within 12 months and the country taking the returns has to take them back unless they challenge the proof within a few weeks. The fact that germany has not done these hundreds of thousands Dublin returns is either stunning incompetence at bamf or a political decision By Merkel. The fact that seehofer has not started Dublin returns for asylum seekers both registered and unregistered to first eu countries since becoming interior minister shows that he is either incompetent and actively being deceived by interior ministry bureaucrats and bamf bureaucrats OR he is with Merkel and is purposefully scamming german voters and afd. The fact afd has not noticed these facts and told them to german voters and called out seehofer makes me think afd are clueless and just concentrated on talking hard..
“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.” Thomas Sowell
Business in Europe was cumbersome pre Schengen. And now, since information technology have massively deepened supply chains, it would be even more of a drag. Imagine US truckers having to line up for Visa checkpoints and inspection at every single state line crossing. And every domestic flight into New York from Boston being treated as if it just came in from Syria full of suspected illegals. Bye-bye any hope of Europe ever getting continent wide free 2 day shipping a-la what Amazon offers over here.
When did it read in the Schengen agreement that everyone from OUTSIDE the Eu was eligible to cross the borders? It did not. And when it comes to border control, there were lots of systems in place well BEFORE the whole Schengen started. People actually had passports and were allowed in and out.
A breakdown of Schengen is a real problem. Even for Germany. What a mess, having every truck, car, train and plane, wait at every little Euro border to be inspected for non-Visa carrying people…. That’s capital G Grinding to a halt, right there. If the peripheral countries go that far, I can’t see any other option for the Northerners, than to form their own mini-Schengen, letting their companies rebalance supply lines accordingly.
The point is that the citizens of European countries (and any country), have a right to prevent people entering their country illegally. And they have a right to have immigration laws that the majority of the people support.
What is a “native European”? The history of the European continent has been one of continual movements of peoples for at least the last two millenia — and probably much longer.
The Romans pushed north, the Huns pushed south, the Moors crossed the Straits of Gibraltar. The Scottish 1320 Declaration of Arbroath (which some say was a source of inspiration for the writers of the US Declaration of Independence) made the claim that the Scots had arrived in Scotland from Syria. European national boundaries have repeatedly changed dramatically; even the UK lost something like a quarter of its land area in the last century.
Change will continue in Europe — no doubt about that. But if any group of human beings in Europe want the “right” to remain in what they see as their current homeland, they have the Responsibility to protect their borders. The big problem for Europeans, as for Americans, is that their Political Classes do not want that Responsibility.
The Utopian’s view is “open borders + free benefits” equal more votes for Collectivist. Since we know that Collectivist do not believe in logic or math, the anti-establishment trend; represented by Brexit, Trump, Spain, and recent elections across Europe; means nothing. They don’t care what people think, because it’s their way (more perks and power) or the highway (prosperity). As people continue to reject the establishment, expect the screwball establishment to tighten the screws, which cause more people to reject the establishment – rinse and repeat until you get a revolution (at least in countries where the citizens will stay and fight).
Since the immigrants are fleeing countries that don’t permit their citizens to posses guns, enabling them to defend themselves against rampant crime and to fight back against govt corruption. What’s wrong with Denninger’s suggestion – send them back to their home country with a gun and plenty of ammo to fight for THEIR country.