by Mish

Nonetheless, Merkel supporters took comfort because Merkel’s CDU/CSU party was more popular than Shulz’s SPD party.

The latest polls have since taken that lead away.

On February 6 I noted The “Impossible” Happens in Germany. The “impossible” was a rise in support for SPD by 10 percentage points in 14 days.

A quick check now shows SPD is in the lead or tied in four of the eight most current polls, and in the lead in two of the three most recent polls.

The above chart modified from Opinion Polling for the 2017 German Federal Election.

I typically discard early polls in favor of more recent ones. It’s hard to know where to draw the line. One can make a case for February 5, 6, 8, or even 10. The last three or four polls likely show the current state of affairs.

Support for AFD is typically understated.

Key Points

  1. It is no longer a given that CDU/CSU will win the election. But it never was in my opinion.
  2. Even if CDU/CSU wins the election people are so sick of Merkel she may be unable to form a coalition.
  3. CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP = 45-49%.
  4. If either Die Linke or the Greens refuse to form a coalition with Merkel, she would be gone as it stands now.
  5. SPD + FDP + Green + Die Linke Coalition Math hits 52-54%.


If the other political parties want to get rid of Merkel, she is gone.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Merkel Wins But Grand Coalition Loses: Major Parties Suffer Worst-Ever Results, AfD Solidly in 3rd P

Angela Merkel won her fourth term but the results were not pretty either for Merkel’s CDU/CSU party or SPD, her Grand Coalition partner following the last election.

Another Merkel Crisis: AfD Leads CDU in E. Germany, Major Coalition Infighting

This story is as bizarre as anything we have seen with Trump. To get rid of a troublesome official, Merkel promoted him.

German Election September 24: What are the Coalition Possibilities?

Angela Merkel would like her CDU/CSU to have an outright majority.

What Happens if CDU/CSU Split?

A reader from Germany chimes in on events if CDU/CSU Split.

Merkel Says Netherlands Election Provides “Clear Signal”: Investigating the Coalition Math

In the wake of the Dutch election yesterday, let’s review coalition math and possibilities.

EU Parliament President Martin Schulz Unexpectedly Resigns for Possible Run Against Merkel

German chancellor Angela Merkel faces a serious new threat in her bid to stay chancellor of Germany for a fourth term.

Germany's Political Mess: CDU Leader Rebukes Merkel on Immigration

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the CDU’s new leader, makes pointed comments about learning from Angela Merkel's mistake.

Merkel Takes Credit for Austria’s Refugee Move; Three German State Elections This Weekend

Three German State Elections This Weekend There are three German state elections this weekend. Polls before the refugee crisis hit showed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU parties would sweep them all.

CSU Leader Horst Seehofer Resigns Leaving Merkel's Coalition in Doubt

Germany's interior minister and CSU party head Horst Seehofer will resign both offices in a dispute with Merkel.