by Mish

Let’s take a look at GDPONow, the actual data, and see if we can come up with a better estimate.

GDPNow Second-Quarter Tracking

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Despite miserable housing numbers today, with negative revisions to last month, the GDPNow model still has residential investment positive albeit down from the initial estimate.

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Starts will continue to add to GDP until they are completed, then consumers fill them with stuff. I fail to come up with residential investment adding to GDP.

Retail Sales

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For the second quarter, retail sales are up 0.05 percent per month on average. With two of three months in (one preliminary), retail sales are up a total of 0.1%, roughly 0.6% annualized. GDPNow is looking for a 2.19 percentage point contribution, essentially the same as its initial forecast.

Business Inventories

There is only one month of data on business inventories (April), down 0.2%.  Prior to the business inventory report, the Census bureau reported wholesale inventories were down 0.5%. I fail to see why inventories will add 0.76 percentage points. Unless inventories pick up,  we are looking at a negative contribution.

I left all the other GDPNow numbers intact, but I have serious doubts about commercial construction as well.

Except for one industrial production report, economic data has been miserable this entire quarter.

We are not quite halfway through the reports and there may be huge revisions either way. But as it stands, I cannot come up with anything close to 2.9%.

We may be lucky to beat 1.0% the way things are going.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

First Quarter GDP Second Estimate 1.2 Percent: Mish vs. Consensus

This morning, the BEA revised its estimate of first-quarter GDP to 1.2% from 0.7%. The Econoday consensus estimate was 0.8%, in a range of 0.7% to 1.0%.

3rd Quarter GDP Estimates Collapse

In the wake of today’s economic reports, third-quarter GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast model each plunged 0.8 percentage points.

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

GDP Estimates: Mish, ZeroHedge, GDPNow, Econoday, Nowcast, Markit

Inventory numbers today suggest a far bigger inventory contribution to GDP than I expected even last week. However, given poor retail sales, the inventory build will most likely result in a third quarter payback.

Six GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Wednesday, I asked a handful of bloggers and economic writers their estimate for first quarter GDP.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Six GDP Estimates (Three Revised Today): ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

Tomorrow the BEA will release its advance GDP number for first quarter GDP. I revised my estimate today as did ZeroHedge and GDPNow. The lowest estimate in the group is GDPNow at 0.2%. Here are the numbers starting with GDPNow.

Second Quarter GDP Forecasts Inching Towards Convergence Around Two Percent

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Nowcast forecast today. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast was updated on July 14 and again on July 19.

Third Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP is 2.1%

Given that GDP is one of the most revised measures, the BEA renamed “final” to “third”. The third estimate is 2.1% just a tick over the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.0%.