A Word About Predictions
Predictions can make one look like a genius or a fool.
In reality, no one is a genius, just lucky. And arguably, the only thing foolish about predictions is making them in the first place. So, take my projections with a grain of salt.
But I do have a methodology. It’s based on Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP).
For a discussion of MRP, please see my December 8 post Number Crunching the Polls Points to Big Tory Win.
Don’t knock the idea or YouGov if you do not understand what this is all about.
Fearless Forecast Methodology
- I believe in YouGov’s MRP methodology and so does Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.
- The Electoral Calculus model, at least as I understand it, uses Baxter’s own MRP methodology based on an average of the latest polls.
- I have a different twist. Instead of using an average of polls, Baxter’s MRP methodology with an an average of YouGov polls and enter those averages into the Electoral Calculus User-Defined Regional Predictor.
YouGov does not disclose its MRP and neither does Baxter, for obvious reasons.
Why Use Baxter’s Model?
- No one else has user-defined calculator.
- Baxter’s model performed better that YouGov’s.
Why Use YouGov Data?
- YouGov and ComRes are the only pollsters that present region-by-region data.
- Variances in ComRes tend to be extreme.
- YouGov does frequent polls and one can average them.
YouGov Data
The data I entered into Electoral Calculus is from MRP Methodology, Tables and Figures on December 10.
YouGov Regional Data
I plugged those numbers into the Electoral Calculus Base Calculator + Scotland and then again into the regional calculator.
The former predicted a majority of 42, the latter, a majority of 40. That’s a nice cross-check. I went with the latter.
Mish’s Fearless Forecast Seat-by-Seat Changes
Synopsis
- Labour a Huge Loser: It picks up two seats from Plaid, a Wales independence party, but loses 38 seats elsewhere, 37 of them to the Tories the other to the Liberal Democrats.
- SNP picks up 6 seats, 5 of them from Labour, only 1 from the Tories.
- The Liberal Democrats pick up 5 seats, 4 from the Tories, 1 from Labour.
Tactical Voting
If the above expectations are in the ballpark, tactical voting will cost the Liberal Democrats dearly, perhaps as many as 10-15 additional seats.
Insead of 18-19% of the vote they will get 12-13% of the votes.
For What?
For a Tory majority and a handful of extra seats, with Jeremy Corbyn still potentially hanging on.
That’s what.
By the way, 18% of 650 is 117.
Instead, I expect the Lib Dems to get about 17 seats. And the more tactical voting there is, the fewer pickups for the Lib Dems there will be.
YouGov Model vs Mish
The YouGov Final Projection is a Conservative Majority of 28.
As explained above, I estimate 40.
Final Thoughts
Any majority of 10 or greater is likely to be very stable and “Get Brexit Done”.
Even 5 might suffice for 5 years because once animosity over Brexit is over, DUP will again side with the Tories in most legislative matters.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Thanks for your prediction, Mish.
It ended up in 10% range of actuals. Not bad.
Thanks for the analysis Mish
“The terminology of Mish is a bit misleading. As I see it, he doesn’t speak about tactical voting but about the squeeze during the campaign. Tactical voting in Lab-Lib relation means that people vote for the candidate with the better chance in the local area. “
Precisely what I am talking about and described!
People in many areas prefer Lib Dems. But Labour has a better perceived chance of winning. Lib Dem vote went from 18-20 a few weeks ago to 12-14
Labour picked it up.
What happened?
Tactical voting plus miserable interviews by Swinson. People concluded she could not win so they abandoned her.
Lib Dems could have picked up more seats if they did not try to stop Tories.
Mish
LibDems lose seats with tactical voting only if the perception of the chances is wrong. If Labour is really stronger in the area, then LibDems cannot lose the seat by definition. 🙂 I have to admit that this is quite hard to separate from “basic” support. Probably impossible. But seat loss can result only from the loss of basic support or wrong information.
Anyway, I don’t want to split hairs. My actual point is that tactical voting is in play until the last minute. Maybe some of it is included in the poll numbers but nobody knows how much. If people are considering to breach loyalty, they are inclined to hide it or postpone the decision.
thank you for the statistics, useful for those learning math modeling.
side note…i would have give my vote to people that strongly believe in brexit and get it done. there’s really no point in staying after so much drag.
The turnout will be very low. This is another example of the metropolitan area getting carried away by itself. But the story is very different out here in the provinces. I remember the night of the last US election and as the polls in the USA closed (can’t remember what time of the morning it was here in the UK), pundits on the BBC were talking WITH ABSOLUTE CONFIDENCE about a Clinton landslide. My, how the story changed over the course of the next few hours. It will be the same here in the UK. People feel totally disenfranchised. Nobody is interested. Nobody has a shred of trust in the political classes, and nobody seems to care, at least in my constituency. I had a canvasser come around the other day and apologetically handed me a leaflet and said, ‘There – something for the recycling bin’ and that just about sums up the mood. The choice is between the undesirable and the unelectable and the are absolutely sick to the back teeth of the lot of them. It will be a hung parliament.
If its a hung parliament everyone will be even more sick of them all for much longer.
The Young Turks US election meltdown will stay with us till the grave
Your predictions fit in nicely with what the bookies are saying. Never thought in my lifetime I would ever see Bolsover turn Tory. People say this election is about Brexit yet Caroline Flint, John Mann and Dennis Skinner look in trouble even though they’ve campaigned to get Brexit done.
Hmm…
link to principalfish.co.uk
Also, lousy weather. This might lessen older peoples’ participation (if they haven’t already mailed in), but could also impact those who are holding their noses to vote Labour, aka ‘low enthusiasm’ voters.
Boris has successfully reined himself in to wage a safe, dull campaign (though his Love Actually spoof yesterday was fantastic, also bulldozing through a Brexit wall). Given the hostility and irresponsibility of the outrage-addicted press, he was probably right to do so. But the result is a low enthusiasm campaign akin to watching paint dry.
I hope Mish’s number-crunching turns out more or less right. The last thing UK needs is more Hung Parliament.
But those betting markets are often right. (I know nothing about this one, it popped up when trying to get a map of the weather forecast tomorrow.)
This one more sanguine for Tories:
link to paddypower.com
And this site predicts 340 seats:
http://politicalbetting.com
Oh good! There’s a flood warning in my area. Maybe the bastards will all get washed away into the Irish Sea and we will be shot of them for ever (and ever, Amen)!
County Durham, today…..
The terminology of Mish is a bit misleading. As I see it, he doesn’t speak about tactcal voting but about the squeeze during the campaign. Tactical voting in Lab-Lib relation means that people vote for the candidate with the better chance in the local area. This cannot lead to seat losses for LibDems because it pulls votes only from candidates without chance of winning. On the other hand, they can win with it in places where Labour voters abandon their candidate for the same reason. Tactical voting is about the geographical distribution of votes, it works against the local division of the Remain side. Very bad for the Tories. Of course, there might be places where voters cannot know which candidate has more chance. There are also many voters who won’t do it at all. The phenomenon has strict limitations, and this limitations are good for the Tories.
Lib-Lab tactical voting is one of the two factors that make prediction very difficult. It is a tactical decision that breaks party affiliation for the short term, only to get back to it immediately. It can happen on the polling day in the last minute.
The other critical factor is the performance of the Farage party. It is a populist force, very hard to predict. Maybe they can resist the pressure enough to prevent an outright Tory majority. Maybe not. The polls won’t tell.
Not sure who turnout favors other than by age group.
I hope those under 35 stay home
Turnout figures in the “YouGov Estimated Vote Share By Region” table look high. If average turnout is less than 65% that will hit Labour harder, as I think it will be Labour supporters who can’t countenance voting for the Tories, and so will stay at home. I think this is a real possibility and that the turnout figures in these models are high.
Another unknown, but a known unknown (as another Donald might have said).
Rather confident I see. I remember leaving the tory HQ in 2017 and hearing someone boast how they believed the election was in the bag and how they ‘just believed in the figures’. Look how off they were before and after that election.
About 85% likely a Tory Majority by my estimation
Not all the polls were wrong and the momentum was clearly favouring Labour while May was crashing in the 2017 polls.
This isn’t 2017
You really don’t see a similarity in the final stats? They look the same as what Labour’s voter stat looked like just before the 2017 election too.
That was my point
correction thanks to@Ensign_Nemo
Labour a Huge Loser: It picks up two seats from Plaid, a Wales independence party, but loses 38 seats elsewhere, 37 of them to the Tories the other to the Liberal Democrats.
I live in Winchester.Remainers,most of them,want to move on.I predict an increased Cons. Majority.Only one Liberal has knocked on my door.The Cons. Mp is popular,the sophomore effect
No gains for Lab or Lib. Bojo gets huge share of womens vote
There’s a minor error in this paragraph:
“Labour a Huge Loser: It picks up two seats from Plaid, a Wales independence party, but loses 38 seats elsewhere, 37 of them to the Tories the other to Labour.”
Labour loses to Labour? Methinks you have a typo here.
Read it as Labour loses to Liberals