by Mish

The trade deficit shrank in February but not because of export strength. Both exports and imports were negative for the month. Exports fell less.

Advance International Trade in Goods

The international trade deficit was $64.8 billion in February, down $4.1 billion from $68.8 billion in January. Exports of goods for February were $126.8 billion, $0.1 billion less than January exports. Imports of goods for February were $191.6 billion, $4.2 billion less than January imports.

Advance Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $594.1 billion, up 0.4 percent from January 2017, and were up 3.2 percent from February 2016. The December 2016 to January 2017 percentage change was revised from down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.2 percent.

Advance Retail Inventories

Retail inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $616.1 billion, up 0.4 percent from January 2017, and were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from February 2016. The December 2016 to January 2017 percentage change was revised from up 0.8 percent to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

No Consumer Strength

The decline in imports adds to weakening consumer spending outlook especially with the auto sector already rolling over.

Treasury yields are lower again today, another sign of a weakening economy. The yield on the 30-year long bond dipped below 3% several days ago and now sits at 2.97%

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Inventories: Another Hit to GDP Estimates for First Quarter

Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% for March while retail inventories rose 0.4% according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department.

Import Prices Decline, Export Prices Rise: Impact on 1st Quarter GDP Estimates?

The BLS report on Import and Export Prices shows prices of imports declined 0.2% in March following increases in each of the 3 previous months.

Little Signs of Life in Import and Export Prices

Import prices rose only 0.1% in December despite a 1.8% jump in energy. Export prices fell 0.1%.

Wholesale and Retail Inventories Jump, Trade Deficit Improves Slightly: GDP and Hurricane Impact?

The Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators show a slight improvement in exports and rising retail and wholesale inventories.

Import Prices Flat, Export Prices Decline 0.5%

The strong dollar dampers the tariff impact on import prices except energy. Export prices decline led by agriculture.

Wholesale and Retail Inventories Rise

Census bureau reports show wholesale and retail inventories jumped in November.

Wholesale Trade Inventories Decline; Revisions Announced; First Quarter GDP Troubles Brewing

According to the Census Department’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Report, inventories declined 0.2% in January.

Import Prices Rise 0.4%, Exports 0.2%: Bond Yields Mostly Yawn

Those looking for a bit of inflation can point to import prices and a weak dollar, but the bond market barely reacted.

Import and Export Prices Plunge

Economists underestimated the magnitude of a decline in import prices and missed the boat entirely on export prices.