The Rent Cafe Apartment Market Report for September shows a rare decline in the National Average Rent.
Key Findings
- The national average rent went up by 3.2% in the past year but dipped by 0.1% month-over-month, reaching $1,471 in September according to data from Yardi Matrix.
- Apartment rates in a majority of small and large cities registered either minor decreases or stagnated.
- In more than half of the nation’s largest renter hubs rent prices waned since August.
Since last month, apartment rents saw minor declines in more than half of the cities we analyzed. Small and large cities lead the trend, with prices dropping in 59% of small cities and 56% of large cities, while 42% of mid-sized cities saw their rates dwindle in September.
September Rents in the 20 Largest Mega-Hubs
CPI Rent and Owners’ Equivalent Rent Month-Over-Month
The Rent Cafe does not use seasonal adjustments, so for comparison purposes the last time the BLS had rents dipping was March of 2010.
Year-Over-Year Rent Cafe
Year-Over-Year CPI
The numbers are not directly comparable because the Rent Cafe uses dollars while the BLS uses an index. Also Rent Cafe Data does not go back as far as the BLS.
I would have liked to seen Rent Cafe data for 2007-2010 to see how they stacked up.
September 2019 vs September 2018
- The Rent Cafe says the national average rent went up by 3.2%.
- The BLS says rent of primary residence went up 3.8%
- The BLS says Owner’ Equivalent Rent went up 3.4%
The numbers that we do have align quite well.
Mike “Mish’ Shedlock
I could just weep. I am getting a 1.6% COLA raise for 2020, my landlord is going to demand an 11.6% rent increase in January. Now that we have statewide rent control landlords must demand the maximum allowed under the law EVERY year or they lose their rent increase base that they can never get back in future. Only the dumbest landlords will refuse to hike the rents by the allowed amount now, it would be like calling your broker up and saying please only invest me in overpriced dog stocks that are sure to go down.
According to RentJungle.com here is the average rent in my town/county since 2014, they are MONTH; all beds; one bedroom; two bedroom reading from left to right:
2/2015 800 652 765
3/2015 831 605 779
4/2015 868 639 794
5/2015 866 674 777
6/2015 844 659 759
7/2015 894 668 775
8/2015 909 665 778
9/2015 880 663 794
10/2015 860 668 815
11/2015 836 666 835
12/2015 809 656 822
1/2016 818 668 832
2/2016 822 662 829
3/2016 827 687 856
4/2016 797 672 834
5/2016 801 687 843
6/2016 847 699 889
7/2016 827 710 862
8/2016 831 692 818
9/2016 813 704 823
10/2016 824 718 816
11/2016 805 706 822
12/2016 801 692 831
1/2017 816 722 834
2/2017 819 729 849
3/2017 781 694 841
4/2017 792 695 872
5/2017 840 715 851
6/2017 865 693 855
7/2017 886 712 894
8/2017 882 733 890
9/2017 853 719 878
10/2017 886 736 848
11/2017 920 708 850
12/2017 888 720 876
1/2018 922 732 898
2/2018 912 744 893
3/2018 923 769 907
4/2018 875 720 886
5/2018 862 717 865
6/2018 879 760 917
7/2018 896 758 907
8/2018 878 748 913
9/2018 902 806 885
10/2018 858 786 887
11/2018 903 845 990
12/2018 964 841 1,130
1/2019 1,051 872 1,188
2/2019 1,049 774 1,139
3/2019 1,070 742 1,189
4/2019 1,052 727 1,179
I paid $725 for a two bed townhouse in 2013/14 lease, the same place now is $1,300, but the landlord pays none of the services (sewer/water/gas/electric/garbage) where back then he paid garbage and water/sewer.
The rent control law now in effect allows landlords to increase rents by 10% plus the SS COLA increase, for 2020 that amounts to 11.6% and I cannot afford it since my rents are already up about 90%, while my veterans disability is up in the same period by 8.6%. And it is not just rents, food, fuel, auto insurance (200-300% for insurance) every item that remains in my budget is up by at least double digits though I have had to cut many of the things that I used to take for granted and saving is out of the question.
If I disappear from your forum Mish that will be the reason why, it means I had to leave and go homeless, live in my car, or move to a red state that makes me want to slash wrists.
I’m truly sorry, Herkie. This is just horrible.
I’m disgusted by this hyperfinancialization, there’s too much greed.
Perhaps you could consider moving to another state or perhaps use your Irish passport.
I did move to Ireland in January 2017 I left, but Ireland is not the nation I remember. EU membership has turned it into an expensive neighborhood of desperation and poverty. There are a few still maintaining a decent lifestyle, going ever deeper in debt, but I had to return. You see I dropped my Irish passport in the Raddison in Athlone, left it on a men’s room counter actually, the hotel cleaning staff found it and sent it to the Guards, they forwarded it to the passport office in Dublin which destroyed it even though I contacted them before they even got the passport from the police in Athlone. They required me to pay 100 euro for a replacement, and show my Irish national ID card (which the government was claiming was NOT a national ID card).
So, I could not get a replacement passport without the Irish ID card, and could not get an Irish national ID card without the passport. The arguing between the passport office and the welfare office went on for months. I finally got my TD involved and he got the passport office to issue a replacement so I could get my national ID so I could apply for a HSE health card, so I could go to a doctor to get a Rx for antibiotics for an ear infection that by then I had had since late May. But then there was another whole argument about my income, they wanted to charge me a pile for the HSE tax even though my income was from the US Treasury and tax exempt, I had a ruling from the revenue office. Finally I just gave up, it was mid September and I had needed antibiotics for months and could not get them without going to a hospital A&E and waiting to be seen there. I was told to prepare for a 4 or 5 day wait if I went to an emergency care in Dublin. Apparently another law is that people over 65 go to the front of the line, and the government has a rule that says they must be seen within 24 hours, but as of 2017 they failed that goal 80% of the time.
Actually though, a buddy came from Denver for a visit, we spent a few days in Dublin then a week in Barcelona leaving the day before the vote on independence. I was able to get antibiotics over the counter for about 4 euro there. But, by then plans were made to return, and by the way, the drugs did not work, I still have the problem 2.5 years later. Have an appointment with ENT on the 29th.
All in all, Ireland was not the place I remember from trips there in the 80’s. Sure you can see shamrocks on signs, and hear the accent when you talk to people, but it felt a lot like a backwater of a larger more cosmopolitan country in the EU, Euro vision, EU football teams, EU beers on tap, EU money, EU TV, a lot of Polish and other eastern people. Just was not Ireland anymore. Except for the bad roads, those have not changed much.
In a way, I do agree. Ireland has changed incredibly. But please realize, Dublin isn’t Ireland. I live in Kerry and this place is still magical and truly a different world from Dublin. But you are right, even here, people have changed. Smartphones dominate life here, especially women are obsessed with the things, it bothers me to no end. And the propertymarket is broken beyond repair, because the corporate masters have instructed the Irish government to take in hordes of immigrants and where are these people supposed to live, when there is a massive problem with homelessness and a gigantic housingshortage? Nothing is being built in rural Ireland and in the larger cities, it’s all about speculation, rentseeking and driving up rents to extortionate levels.
And I fully agree, the EU hasn’t improved our lives and for as long as I’ll breathe, I’ll loath this dictatorial institution and I will cheer when it all falls apart. It will fall apart, but not without destruction.
Varadkar is an insult to the Irish people and clearly, his loyalty doesn’t lie with the people, but with his corporate masters in Brussels and London. Ireland will always be England’s bitch and the EU’s footwipe.
Please know, you are not alone when it comes to suffering under the policies of central bankers and their henchmen politicians. I think I lost about 100.000 euro in inflation and earnings on interest, due to their policies. And housing is unaffordable, even here in Ireland, let alone the rest of Western Europe.
And still, I remain hopeful. Because there will come a time that the people will stand up and reject these narratives. If that’s not already happening globally.
Hang in there, Herkie!
Thanks H-I, the Irish have a history of standing up to their would be masters and throwing off foreign shackles, the problem is it takes them about 800 years on average. 🙂
You can get a one bedroom in Honduras for $50 a month, and a maid for $75. Pharmaceuticals are relatively unregulated.
Have looked into living outside the US. What seemed like good options a decade or 15 years ago no longer look so great, Central America has become so infected with narco terror that I don’t even want to visit, what is safe is already loaded with US and Canadian ExPats that have driven up prices. I really considered Belize for quite a while, but crime there is also up and the government is a family run affair that is getting more expensive all the time. I mean, I can stay right in the US and be in poverty, no point in leaving to live like a homeless person, or to be that Gringo they want to target. I actually thought very well of Spain, but, the unrest there and the heavy handed tactics by Madrid spooked me. I want WARM, no more winters, affordable housing that is pleasant, security to a level common sense will be adequate protection. Buenos Aires is still on my list but it has become nearly impossible to exchange dollars there (except at the official exchange rate which with ATM fees and bank fees is about half what the cambio guys on the street will give). I would love to stay, and would move to Florida but even there housing is just not doable for a disabled vet.
“dipping a mere $1 to $1,471”
…
A start.
I follow one rental market closely. “Sold” this year has been running 5% or 6% off of “Ask” … with a few transactions around 10% off. Numbers don’t BEGIN to pencil out till 25% off (unless you are one of those paying all cash and enjoying a cap rate < 5%).
My powder is dry … and I have no doubt it will be in play in the next few years.
The perfectly priced house is one that will sell in 90 days. If it takes longer than that you have overpriced it. If it sells quicker then you under priced it. And sure some do sell over or under 90 days because they were intentionally priced to get either higher price or quicker sale, and factors can change quickly how the market perceives relative pricing, I am just saying on average over time turnover is about 90 days and if you are at 120, or 235, and you want to sell then you just have to lower the price. If you list a place and there are bidding wars in the first week then you need to seriously jack up the price.
Right now, I have looked at the region north of Tampa Bay, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco Counties, and can afford up to $275k (250 really but would stretch for a place I really like) and I am finding that anything under $350k is getting snapped up like a starving dog will snap up bacon. It is to the point that I am wondering where the F%$& people are getting the money, to overpay so grossly like they just don’t care about price at all.
The last time I saw it this way was mid 2007. Within months prices were crushed by half or more here and just kept falling. A place I looked at for $275k mid 2007 was suddenly $60 at foreclosure auction end of 2008.
Looks like supply has caught up to demand. Not surprising. Where I live, almost all new construction is townhouses for sale or apartments/condos for rent. Not many detached homes going up and the few that are cost close to a million dollars.
Too much money with a shortage of good investment opportunities has resulted in a boom in multi-family construction. These new apartment complexes built on cheap money are beginning to pressure existing home prices. This and a combination of other trends have long term implications for the economy and society. The article below explores some of the ways bad housing policy takes a toll on America.
In my city there appear to be more apartments either being built, or which have been build in the last year, than all the apartments which previously existed. Who will live in all of them? I have no idea, but I’m inclined to think that we will see some vacancies, and probably some rent declines. It seems something will have to give.
That’s a twisted sense of humour, Mitch. A decline of 1$ 😉
It will be revised upwards next month.