Nearly 50% Odds of "At Least" 3 Rate Cuts by December

June Rate Cut Odds

Rate cut odds from CME Fedwatch.

• The odds of one cut in June are 44.6%.
• The odds of two cuts are 29.3%.
• The odds of three cuts are 5.4%

June Changing Odds

• A month ago the the odds of No Cut in June were 63.0%.
• Today they are only 20.7%.

December Rate Cut Odds

December Changing Odds

• In the past month the odds of two or more cuts jumped from 30.3% to 77.7%
• In the past month the odds of three or more cuts jumped from 8.4% to 47.2%

What's Happening?

1. CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
2. Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
3. Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
4. Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times

Rate cuts odds started rising before coronavirus threat materialized on news Largest Global Shipping Decline Since 2009.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock