June Rate Cut Odds

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Rate cut odds from CME Fedwatch.

  • The odds of one cut in June are 44.6%.
  • The odds of two cuts are 29.3%.
  • The odds of three cuts are 5.4%

June Changing Odds

  • A month ago the the odds of No Cut in June were 63.0%.
  • Today they are only 20.7%.

December Rate Cut Odds

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December Changing Odds

  • In the past month the odds of two or more cuts jumped from 30.3% to 77.7%
  • In the past month the odds of three or more cuts jumped from 8.4% to 47.2%

What's Happening?

  1. CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
  2. Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
  3. Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
  4. Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times

Rate cuts odds started rising before coronavirus threat materialized on news Largest Global Shipping Decline Since 2009.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock