The White House’s budget proposal, to be released Monday, estimates 3% Growth for 10 Years, on average.

The budget proposal projects the economy will grow about 3% annually over the coming decade, though officials now expect a slightly larger near-term boost, with output rising 3.2% next year before declining to 3% in 2021 and 2.8% by 2026, according to projections reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Many private forecasters also expect economic growth to pick up this year because of consumer and business spending encouraged by tax cuts signed by the GOP president in December, plus a two-year, $300 billion funding deal signed Friday.

But many don’t see quite as large an increase as the administration, and they don’t see the boost lasting for nearly as long. On Friday, economists at J.P. Morgan said they now expect the economy to grow 2.6% this year and 1.9% next year.

In December, Federal Reserve officials raised their projection of GDP growth for the current year to 2.5%, and for next year to 2.1%. They still see the economy growing around 1.8% over the long run.

Optimists Every One

A single recession in the next 10 years will likely ruin even the 2.0% projections.

Contrary to popular thinking, the increased deficits will not add to growth.


Moreover, a sustained stock market decline is guaranteed to subtract from consumer spending.

Necessary Fantasy

It is uncertain if the Trump forecasters really believe the nonsense they spew.

They had to make rosy projections to get their policies passed.

Had they claimed their policies would lead to 1.8% growth, the Senate would have rejected the tax cuts and spending bills.

The question here is: Are they liars, fools, or both?

I vote both.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

3% Growth? Really?!

In Trump Plans to Slash Spending by $3.6 Trillion, Increase Military Spending, Balance the Budget in 10 Years I gave my three primary reasons 3% growth will be extremely difficult to achieve.

Housing Least Affordable in a Decade

It takes 23.6% of median income to make the monthly payment on the average-priced home.

Impediments to Growth

In Hoisington’s Fouth Quarter Review (not yet posted online), Lacy Hunt takes a look at the Trump economy, policy lags, and impediments to growth. Hunt sees five major impediments, in his report.

Fallacy of Wage Growth and a Housing "Shortage" in Pictures

The WSJ says there is a "historic shortage of homes". That's nonsense, but sales are depressed. Why? Real wages explain.

Hurricane Michael Strengthens to Cat 3, Heads for Florida Panhandle

Evacuations are underway as Hurricane Michael strengthened to category 3.

Acceleration in Wage Growth is a Statistical Mirage

The hype over wage growth had been nonstop since Friday's jobs report. No one bothered to look at the details.

Electric Cars Superior to Gas-Powered Cars? Ownership Rates Say Not For a Decade

An alleged "Hatchet Job" by the NYT stirred up a hornet's nest reaction from Tesla and EV lovers. Let's reexamine.

Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler Seek White House Meeting

German auto industry executives are so afraid of Trump's tariff threat that they seek a meeting with the president.

Lunch Traffic Lowest in Four Decades.

A pair of articles on the Wall Street Journal ponders an event I long expected would happen: willingness to eat at fast food places where food is steeply priced and of dubious quality.