Net Exports as a Percentage of GDP Over Time

A Tweet claims trade makes up close to 30% of GDP today vs. 19.8% in 1990. Let's investigate the claim.

A Tweet claims trade makes up close to 30% of GDP today vs. 19.8% in 1990. Let's investigate the claim.

The Tweet makes the claim by adding up real exports and real imports and divides the total by real GDP. I created a chart in Fred.

(Real Exports + Real Imports) / Real GDP

I confirm the numbers but the idea seems silly. Why?

Exports add to GDP while imports subtract from GDP.

(Real Exports - Real Imports) / Real GDP

(Real Exports - Real Imports) / Real GDP Details

The chart shows NET exports as a percentage of GDP.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

The BEA’s second estimate of Third Quarter GDP came in at 3.2% up from 2.9% in the advance (first) estimate.

Trump will not exactly be pleased as the trade deficit in goods is headed the wrong way for his liking.

Round one of the US-China trade deal is allegedly "absolutely done". Let's investigate that and other claims.

Services, especially education, are the only bright spot in the US trade picture. Trump threatens to kill that.

Trump imposed tariffs to make imports more expensive and fuel exports. Let's check the results.

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.

Real GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) if 2.9% according to the BEA’s Advance Estimate.

The Fed released its "Z1" report today on Household Net Worth and Domestic Nonfinancial Debt. Let's dive in on wealth.

GeoFred and the St. Louis Fed data repository (Fred) put together a set of interesting trade maps.

Hype Over GDP Statistical Noise