Chest Thumping Time
Not only is it time to pound one’s chest, it’s also a perfect time to mock friends and pour it on those who did not buy.
Max Keiser Sets the Perfect Example
Many people asked me to admit my mistake. Most not politely.
It wasn’t my first mistake and I assure you it won’t be my last.
All the taunts are for expressing an opinion that I expect governments will squash it if they ever feel threatened by Bitcoin. So far governments and central banks don’t feel threatened.
One person mocked me as follows: “have fun staying poor”. What a hoot. I am doing quite well, thank you.
I never recommended shorting Bitcoin (and still don’t), and I chastised Peter Schiff several times for gloating prematurely over its demise.
Where is Bitcoin Headed?
I do not know where it it headed, nor does anyone else, and I never said otherwise. That applies to gold as well. I just expressed strong concerns, with reasons.
Anyone who tells you that he knows where anything is headed is a charlatan, even if they have been correct so far.
Bitcoin is not for me and never will be for reasons stated. You have to believe and I don’t. And because I don’t, if I ever held it, I would have sold it long ago.
So no, I am not buying.
But if you own it, congrats. Just remember knock on your neighbor’s door and gloat if they don’t have any.
Addendum
- My Concerns: Bitcoin Supporters Cannot Answer One Simple Question
- Bitcoin Supply: Misunderstanding the Supply of Bitcoin and Gold Leads to Silly Projections
Mish
Mish is right in almost everything, but he dumped Dr Chris Martensen (Peak Prosperity) on Covid, initially he actually referred to Dr Chris, but as soon as Dr Chris’s findings were not matching the mainstream narrative, Mish dumped him. I hope Mish writes about what Dr Chris found out about the whole Covid narrative. For bitcoin, I think Mish is trying to influence his readers not to give any attention to it….all assets which do not generate any income is subjected to human speculation & mania…so is bitcoin, tesla and many other stocks. However, some people have the skills to identify bubble early, ride and exit early.
Mish; will government connected Bitcoin investors sell on inside information? Subsequently causing a collapse in confidence?
Klaus Schwab of the Davos WEF crowd, intends for no one to own anything, and be happy doing so, by 2030. “Build it back better.”
Keiser is a nutcase, Raoul Pal has a much better case for bitcoin. Myself, I don’t see any intrinsic value to bitcoin. Great speculation asset tho cause of the volatility. Most fiat currencies in a pinch are at least somewhat backed by taxpayers. Gold is the oldest and most reliable form of money. With interest rates hovering around zero and all of the current financial instability its a very attractive investment currently. Its gonna be a rough 5-10 years I suspect.
Never fails to piss me off when I read about this. I remember back in 2011 or 12 looking at CraigsList some guy had 1,000 bitcoins for sale at 25 cents each and I almost bought them just on a lark. $250 and those would now be worth $28,255,000.
Yeah, only if you didn’t lose them in the mean time to all the scammers along the way.
Yes, assuming you held. Likelyhood you would have sold at a 1$ or maybe $10, making a nice profit. How many would have held on this long and not have sold at a much lower price?
I am not that kind of guy ZZ, I have a degree in Finance and not a typical investor. At $250 that investment would have been more like buying a lottery ticket, extreme speculation.
Mish don’t know if its true but a few days ago in Bloomberg:
“A few large holders commonly referred to as whales continue to own most Bitcoin. About 2% of the anonymous ownership accounts that can be tracked on the cryptocurrency’s blockchain control 95% of the digital asset, according to researcher Flipside Crypto”
Bloomberg November 2020
Lol, if that is true, then it’s a scalpers market. Profit from scalping is great until supply appears, but in the case of bitcoin it won’t appear, so it’s worth what the scalpers tell you is worth?
No intrinsic value, could crash on psychology like tulips. Not for me.
It’s true…or close enough to true….the Whales can make BTC go anywhere they want…the unregulated big foreign crypto exchanges are participants in the scam.
Tether is part of the scam, too.
I’m with you on this one Mish — there’s equal logic to 28,000 and $500. The truth is that your interlocutor proves the weakness of bitcoins. It is driven by speculators. There is no underlying value model for Bitcoin except what everyone else is ready to pay. Therefore its a speculator’s heaven
You could, to s certain extent, say the same with currency (or gold) but although gold has gone up, it has not gone from 20,000 to 7,000 back to 28,000 in the space of a few months (just like Tesla stock)
Bitcoin may one day be something, right now its a tool for speculators and little else.
Froz, whenever the republicans trot out their sorry assed excuse that we can do anything when democrats are president I just want to remind them that if I saw 1,000 bitcoin for sale in 2012 for 250 bucks and that those same coins are now worth going on $28 million and the world did not end then they can damned well open the purse in a time of national disaster. We can sort it out when people are not dying and being evicted by the millions.
Why would BTCrs ‘gloat and mock’ or why would you even congratulate someone with his BTC investment unless the person in question actually ‘took’ his profit(they won t because rumour has it bitcoin will reach the stratosphere) …. Like with all assets, profits are merely froth unless you sell out and make a ‘real’ bundle…
Not your best work here Mish show some decorum with comments on the future of money!.
You don’t need to defend yourself regarding Bitcoin. All speculative assets will skyrocket during the crack-up boom (in the Misesian sense). Since you are in Lacy Hunt’s camp with deflation, can you instead explain if increasing everyone’s bank accounts by $600-$2000 on a regular basis will change your outlook?
$600 into checking today, and from where I am sitting now inflation is running at about 14% to a little over 20%, so one buck in and three bucks out.
You don’t need to defend yourself regarding Bitcoin. All speculative assets will skyrocket during the crack-up boom (in the Misesian sense). Since you are in Lacy Hunt’s camp with deflation, can you instead explain if increasing everyone’s bank accounts by $600-$2000 on a regular basis will change your outlook?
Why would they want to ban it when every time a person sells it they get to collect taxes on it? Banning innovation would lead to a mass exodus of people and companies to a crypto friendly country who would reap the rewards. Publicly traded companies who have a vested interest would rally against it. As would millions of retail investors and high net worth individuals. It’s sad to see that you live in a country where fear is your reason for not investing in something you know has a massive upside.
Btw China has already tried to ban it 5 times and it didn’t work.
To protect the public would be the advertised reason. This is what the Financial Conduct Authority currently thinks about crypto derivatives.
“These products cannot be reliably valued by retail consumers because of the:
inherent nature of the underlying assets, which means they have no reliable basis for valuation
prevalence of market abuse and financial crime in the secondary market (eg cyber theft)
extreme volatility in cryptoasset price movements
inadequate understanding of cryptoassets by retail consumers
lack of legitimate investment need for retail consumers to invest in these products
These features mean retail consumers might suffer harm from sudden and unexpected losses if they invest in these products.”
There are already examples of banned businesses that would earn much tax revenue if they weren’t banned, the drugs trade and prostitution are two.
Even if they don’t ban them at first, more regulation is likely in my opinion. The authorities would consider crypto’s a threat to the financial system. Different “Currencies” popping up on a regular basis wouldn’t been seen as helpful. A black market of trade using them would reduce tax revenues. However, as you say, they’ll be interests that will lobby against a ban or more regulation.
In stupid times, the safe bet is the stupid bet.
At least Max and Stacy have not (as far as I know) ridiculed Mish on air, like they frequently do with Peter Schiff. They have gotten more combative with guests who doubt Bitcoin, including on their most recent show with Mitch Feierstein.
I can understand their zeal, but 12 years after choosing ZIRP and QE forever our most pressing problems are of a social nature now that we’ve botched our finances beyond repair. I’d love for crypto to blaze a new trail for humankind, but first the old system needs to disintegrate and that is NOT going to be pretty.
The old system is an asset backed system. Nixon undid that in 1971.
I ridicule Schiff. But I have done podcasts with Max a dozen times. This is the second time Max went after me.
I always liked your conversations on Keiser Report, hopefully this doesn’t end any chance of future appearances.
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority this year banned the sale of derivatives and exchange traded notes (ETNs) that reference certain types of cryptoassets to retail consumers. Retail consumers can still buy cryptocoins but I think this was just an opening shot across the bow. As time passes I’d guess governments will introduce increasingly tighter regulations about them.
Crytos are a Ponzi scheme and should be banned.
First case of British variant of Covid detected in Colorado.
No fun in our future yet.
No, it’s not good, we seem to be losing control of it over here. You seem to follow about 6 to 8 weeks later.
I live in Colorado. There is no flu here as we are following the CDC playbook for the flu in hopes of preventing Covid-19. People wear face masks driving alone in their cars. They wear facemasks walking across the Target parking lot. LOL, the virus is destroyed by sunlight in a minute or two. There is not a viral load you can inhale in any Colorado parking lot.
“They wear facemasks walking across the Target parking lot. LOL”
I do that too! Because I forget I’m wearing the stupid thing until I’m in my car driving. “Why do I feel restrained?! Ohh…”
And California
Never bet against prospective government bailouts of the connected and the government printing press.
For 5,000 years gold and silver were money. The sovereign wants to fight wars and the bankers want to fund him. Nixon got stuck in 1971 between war and gold. He chose war.
I’ve asked all stripes of people what is the price discovery mechanism for valuing virtual currencies? No one has one.
“The Market Humbles Us ALL.” The clock hands will move and they’ll have their wrong times as well. Or do you critics supposedly know more than Buffet et al??
I don’t see that Bitcoin has any intrinsic value and thus it must be a Ponzi scheme. Gold is one of the three best conductors of electricity, and the only one that doesn’t corrode or tarnish. Thus, it is used in highly critical electric connections and the face shields of astronauts. I wonder why people don’t wire their houses with it? Oh yeah, it’s a little expensive compared to copper.
Very similar chart, google “gouda tulip bulbs”
Crypto is a collectible fad, like Beanie babies or Tulip bulbs.
Right there with you, just like the tulip mania. I’m suspecting when the really big money sharks that borrow money at a few basis points start shovelling money into BTC the regulators will step in hard.
Bitcoin is a thinly traded market and open to manipulation by big enough players.
Tether has admitted in court that they do not have 100% cash reserves backing each Tether unit. They are very likely providing liquidity conjured out of thin air to the USDT denominated markets.
The music keeps playing because of regulatory arbitrage, but it’s only a matter of time.
“…open to manipulation by big enough players”
Exactly.
Meanwhile in other crypto news…
The cryptocurrency XRP fell as much as 31% on Tuesday after the trading platform Coinbase said it would suspend trading of it by mid-January.
Last week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed a complaint against the blockchain company Ripple over how it sells XRP.
XRP has lost about three-quarters of its value in six weeks.
XRP is the redheaded step-child of crypto….the problem is that Ripple created all of it that exists….and kept most of it to sell off….which makes it look a lot like a security.
They’ve maintained that it isn’t..but if the SEC thinks it is, that’s a big problem. A lot of big investors bought it thinking it was going to moon…..but it never has…..it was supposed to be for banks to use to move money across borders…a replacement for the SWIFT system (which is archaic).
The pissed off buyers have been suing Ripple for years now, trying to recoup their losses. Meanwhile Ripple kept selling XRP and making money for the company. Sounds like things have finally come to ahead.
It’s kind of a shame. XRP has a real use case.
Most “investments” these days are less explainable than horse racing.
Horse racing is based on fundamentals.
And its fundamental are fun.
And beautiful.
I am not into Bitcoin myself but three years ago I had a long discussion with my two son-in-laws about it. They were and still are heavily into Bitcoin and they explained to me why and I have to admit I didn’t understand their reasoning. I am glad they rejected my reasoning. To console myself I remember that Isaac Newton bought South Sea Company shares at a cheap price and sold them nicely at good profit having calculated their just price. Unfortunately the shares kept going up and he bought back in at the top knowing full well there was no justification for the price and promptly lost his fortune. That keeps me out of it now.
I think you nailed it. I cannot tell you how many younger people have bought BTC or cryptos. Are they in it for store of value, speculation investing, or the next disruptive fintech?
At 1st the push for Bitcoin was a money. Then as it rose in price, it became a store of wealth. Early adopters used it as a way to illegally move money by avoiding banks.
I’ve been a Keiser fan for a long time, first discovered him and Stacy on their old BBC show “The Oracle”. That said, the constant Bitcoin evangelism does wear thin and I find myself skipping whole segments of his shows now because it’s the same message over and over.
He deserves big kudos for hopping on the bandwagon several years ago, but I don’t see crypto as the panacea that soothes what ails us. It has made individual investors very wealthy but society is still crumbling as a whole. Blockchain is a refreshing idea in this era of fiat and central bank printing, but any fall of the dollar will bring considerable pain to the overwhelming majority of people.
Bitcoin is blockchain (generation one) but blockchain is NOT just bitcoin. I love blockchain…but bitcoin has multiple flaws…it’s incredibly slow to post…way too slow to ever use for e-commerce…..mining uses more electricity every year than a country the size of Ireland….and the lack of true decentralization means it is not completely safe from being hacked.
But if you’re more worried about the return ON your money than the return OF your money, then BTC might be your kind of investment. When it moves, it can move big.
Blockchain is very inefficient unless there are specific user needs that make blockchain the preferred solution.
But it solves the double spend problem with digital money…which makes it valuable.
The whole Bitcoin mining maybe was a good idea to let people who got in early get rich. But it is a huge energy wasting ecosystem. Think of all that energy that could have been used for productive infrastructure building. Why not create all the coins instantly? I think XRP Ripple created 1 billion crypto coins instantly. Very little energy consumption.
At the end of the day, BTC is just a electronic file and is now considered an assets by the SEC. What is its worth? Whatever you want to pay for it.
Bitcoin has an ecological waver.
The one time I damn sure wouldn’t buy Bitcoin is after a big breakout. Buy it when the exchanges (bucket shops) have driven it back down until the Max Kaisers of the world STFU for six months or a year.
Bitcoin is not a real asset in my view. It’s a highly speculative play with a poor reward/risk, unless you catch bottoms and then flip it for quick profits when it does finally make a move.Not my idea of a buy and hodl.
I like tangible assets.
Flip it for quick profits and give the government 28%. Way too risky for me too.
I guess I just don’t understand what Bitcoin is. Is it a speculative stock that goes straight up and down? Is it a medium of exchange that tracks the dollar? Is it both, in which case I really don’t understand! I think it’s best for me to sit on the sidelines for this one. Mainly because I would never devote enough of my funds to it to make a significant change in my net worth.
It’s a highly manipulated market that depends on snake oil salesmen like Max Kaiser to lure in newbies looking to get rich quick.
The sellers are accidental billionaire bitcoin miners…and owners of exchanges (often one and the same) generally in at very nominal prices, and they make money every time they sell…..and they take that money and usually buy gold if the price is right.
It’s a greater fool game, which will work until it doesn’t. Bitcoin could go to the moon. But for many reasons, it has a really crappy long term outlook. I’d be happy to explain that….
Ponzi is the word you were looking for.
It is crazy. Right now a transaction fee is running about $6. So forget about buying something for $10 BTC as it would cost $16 for the purchase.
What is even more crazy is there are 300k transactions a day. Multiply that by $6 and you have $1.8billion in fees. Guess what the daily money sum total for these transaction. $5.5 billion. So to move $5.5 billion from one ewallet to another was required 32% of the value in transaction fees.
There are lots of people making money just the transaction fees. Forget about owning BTC…..get involved in the transactions. Maybe that is why paypal is jumping in.
Is that 300k or 300 million. In the former case, the price is $1.8 million, not billion.
on
Your analysis is spot one.
You aren’t wrong about Bitcoin, in my opinion. I believe your overall analysis of the stock and where the ultimate price of Bitcoin is heading will be proven correct in the long run. Same with the shares of Tesla. The stock market is a fool’s paradise at the moment. If I owned these stocks I would be dumping them before the market correction hits.