by Mish

Server access denial makes it a lot easier to point a finger at Russia especially when that is story mainstream media and Democrats wish to perpetuate.

However, new analysis now suggests neither Russia nor a Romanian named Guccifer 2.0 was involved at all. Rather, the alleged DNC hack was an inside job.

A person who bills himself as The Forensicator provides the analysis in Guccifer 2.0 NGP/VAN Metadata Analysis.

The Forensicator uses timestamp analysis and transfer rate analysis and concludes the files were copied locally, then a subset of the files was selected for the leak.

His analysis is beyond my expertise to comment on, but it is readable and well presented. It deserves a close look.

Guccifer 2.0 Story

“Guccifer 2.0” is a person or persona stating they were the hacker(s) that hacked into the Democratic National Committee (DNC) computer network and then leaked its documents to the media, the website WikiLeaks, and a conference event.
The U.S. Intelligence Community concluded that some of the genuine leaks that Guccifer 2.0 has said were part of a series of cyberattacks on the DNC were committed by two Russian intelligence groups.
This conclusion is based on analyses conducted by various private sector cybersecurity individuals and firms, including CrowdStrike, Fidelis Cybersecurity, Fireeye’s Mandiant, SecureWorks, ThreatConnect, Trend Micro, and the security editor for Ars Technica.
The Russian government denies involvement in the theft, and “Guccifer 2.0” denied links to Russia. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said that multiple parties had access to DNC emails and that there was “no proof” that Russia was behind the attack. According to various cybersecurity firms and U.S. government officials, Guccifer 2.0 is a persona that was created by Russian intelligence services to cover for their interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.


Theory #1: Russia

Putin hired Guccifer 2.0 to hack the DNC server. Guccifer 2.0 succeeded, then managed to download massive amounts of data in minimal time over relatively slow connections. A subset of those files later appeared on Wikileaks.

Theory #2: Inside Job

Someone at the DNC did not want Hillary to win. That person, having local access, was able to transfer large numbers of files quickly. A subset of those files later appeared on Wikileaks.

Maddow Fake Drama

The Guccifer 2.0 story is very similar to mess Rachel Maddow is in.

For details, please see MSNBC Fake Drama: Timestamp Says Maddow’s Exclusive “Scoop” Story is Full of Holes.

One by one, all of these “Russia is Responsible” theories look weaker and weaker with each passing day.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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