The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000.
Because of a huge upward revision, sales fell 0.7 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000, but is 31.6 percent above the October 2018 estimate of 557,000.
Sales Price
The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2019 was $316,700. The average sales price was $383,300.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 322,000. This represents a supply of 5.3 months at the current sales rate.
Home Sales Regain Trendline
Homes sales are much better than expected but the year-over-year 36.6% rise is also based on the easiest comparison in 12 years.
Things are back on the trendline from 2011.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Starting to look like no recession for Christmas this year.
Interestingly, according to a historical gold price table it was $327 in 1985.
link to onlygold.com
About 260oz would have bought the $85k house. Today 260oz at $1460 is $380k so would buy the average house today. Not sure what it proves. 😀
Sales helped by tanking interest rates in August (big upward revision to September gives credence) spilling into sales for Sept / Oct.
November sales will be where rubber meets the road.
Put me down for an (unexpected) big miss for November (and December) sales.
So, the end is not near….yet ?
What is the replacement rate on the housing stock?
That’s one terrible recovery if you look at sales in 2006 on the second chart.
William Shatner on mortgages
Bill trying to make a point. And he did. Just not the one he thought.
PITI
Completely ignoring taxes & insurance MUCH MUCH higher today.
Not to mention cherry picking 1985 … when rates high BUT at the onset of the great bond bull market. In less than 10 years interest rates halved. Of course, Bill might have been the only soul clueless enough not to refinance.
Stick to counting tribbles.
So it basically took 10 years to clear out excess inventory.
Got it.
Wonder how long it will take the equities and bond market to clear out and reset to normal once things start sliding?
I’m betting much longer.
I’m always reminded of the wise statement “An irrational market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
….and a straight up theft racket, can remain irrational (from the viewpoint of anything resembling a “market”) much longer than that again.
Mishs’ new home link to dezeen.com