CME Fedwatch Odds

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If these yields hold the Fed will practically be forced to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 18.

As it stands a quarter point cut would leave the 10-year treasury yield inverted with the Effective Fed Funds Rate by 16.3 basis points.

What's Happening Background

  1. Feb 19: Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
  2. Feb 24: Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
  3. Feb 25: CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
  4. Feb 25: Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
  5. Feb 25: Nearly 50% Odds of "At Least" 3 Rate Cuts by December
  6. Feb 26: Trump says We are "Very, Very Ready for the Coronavirus, for Anything"
  7. Feb 27: Useless Act: California Monitors 8,400 People for Coronavirus; 33 Test Positive
  8. Feb 27: Containment Fails: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day
  9. Feb 27: Tweets of the Day: Iran's VP Infected, Japan Closes All Schools
  10. Feb 28: 5 Mistakes by the CDC and FDA Set Back Virus Testing

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Record Low 30-Year Bond Yield and Record High on Gold Coming Up

Once again, the yield on the 30-year long bond is below 2.0%. I expect a record low yield shortly. Gold will benefit.

30-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields Approach Record Lows

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes treasury yields on the 10-year notes and 30-year long bond are within spitting distance of all-time low yields.

30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Hello Treasury Bears: 10-Year Bond Yield Approaching Record Low Yield

Treasury yields are down again today, the 6th straight day of strengthening inversions. 30-year to FF inversion on deck.

I Expect New Record Low Long Bond Yield

Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails. At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it's back at 2.80%. Meanwhile, short-term rates continue to rise. We are a recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond.

Entire Yield Curve Inverts, 30-Year Long Bond Yield Dives to Record Low

The stock markets are getting clobbered and bonds are on fire as recession fears escalate.

30-Year Long Bond Yield Crashes Through 2% Mark to Record Low 1.98%

The bond rally continues this evening with the Fed in denial and Trump howling.

Currency Wars: Greek 10-Year Bond Yield Dips Below 2% as Bets on Rate Cuts Rise

For the first time ever, Greek 10-year bond yields dipped below 2%.

The Fed Will Cut Rates on March 18

It's now baked in the cake. The Fed will cut rates on March 18 and most likely at least twice more.