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Newsom Easily Survives Recall Vote But the Good News For Democrats Ends There

Newsom survived the recall effort but a look at where he was weakest portends the loss of some Congressional seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
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California Governor  Gavin Newsom  Wins Recall

Newsom Easily Survives Recall Vote

The Republican Bid to Unseat Governor Gavin Newsom went down in flames by a large margin.  

Voters in the western U.S. state of California overwhelmingly rejected an effort to remove Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom from office.   

In Tuesday’s election, the majority of voters cast a “no” vote, saying Newsom should not be recalled. That made moot the second question on the ballot: Who should replace Newsom if the majority wanted to oust him?   

With about two-thirds of the expected vote counted, Newsom by early Wednesday was defeating the Republican-led recall effort by a 64-to-36% margin. 

Had Newsom lost the recall vote in the heavily Democratic state, Larry Elder, a conservative radio talk show host and supporter of former Republican President Donald Trump, would have become governor, since by law, the 53-year-old Newsom could not be among the list of possible choices to replace himself. Elder led 46 other candidates, most of them Republicans. 

Elder easily trounced the other challengers by winning nearly 47% of the vote on the question of who should replace Newsom if he was recalled. In a concession speech early Wednesday morning, Elder urged his supporters to “be gracious in defeat.”

But he also teased a possible run against Newsom in 2022, declaring, “We may have lost the battle, but we are going to win the war.”  

Digging Into the Numbers

Digging into the numbers, the recall effort shows significant weakness for the midterm elections in 2012. 

A series of Tweets by Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report shows why. 

Wasserman: Even a 20-25% "No" margin statewide could be consistent w/ an environment in which Republicans take back the House & Senate in 2022. If the margin is only 4% in OC county-wide, "No" is definitely winning at least some congressional districts there.

Wasserman: If the margin is only 4% in OC county-wide, "No" is definitely winning at least some congressional districts there.

Swing Seats

About Gerrymandering

About the 2022 Midterms 

The 2020 election was a referendum on Trump. Trump failed. 

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On November 8, 2022, 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election.

The 2022 referendum will not be about Trump, it will be about Biden, tax hikes, stagflation, energy policy, and Afghanistan. 

Trump lost because he lost support of independents and moderates. Biden is doing little or nothing for the independents and moderates. Biden has kowtowed to AOC and the Progressive radical Left wing of the party in every way.

Too Early For Projections 

Many independents revolted by Trump now feel the same about Biden. Moreover, the incumbent party typically loses seats in the midterms.

However, it is a bit early to make projections. Much will depend on the state of the economy in 2022. 

A recession that no one has even mentioned yet is a possibility if Progressives manage huge tax hikes and even more so if they pass a bill that mandates 80% clean energy by 2030. 

As things stand now, I expect Democrats to lose the House or the Senate and perhaps both in 2022 with the House being most likely.

That would end the Progressives' push for at least 2 more years and possibly 6 more years. 

In turn, that helps explain their Progressives' "future is now" belligerence including demands on Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. 

Meanwhile, the Stagflation Threat is Very Real but Congress Holds the Key

On September 2, I noted Senator Manchin Seeks "Strategic Pause on Reconciliation" while asking Did Biden's Budget Just Die?

Today, Biden will meet with Manchin and Sinema to apply pressure. We will see.

Mish

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