Axios noted 1 business thing: Wall Street slowly getting less bullish on 2019.
Yep, but not a single bearish forecast. Wells Fargo was lowest at 6.3%. Only 4 analysts expected lower than 10%.
JP Morgan, Canaccord, UBS, and Deutsche Bank topped the list at 23.7%, 27.6%, 27.6%, and 29.6% respectively.
Expect more revisions, but don’t expect any negative forecasts.
I will take the under: -10.0% to be more precise.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Well, looks like DB were nearly right on the money.
No negative forecasts? Wow that’s really bearish!
Would you want to be the lone guy who made a bearish forecast and then got fired when that was wrong?
For these forecasts it is better to hide among all the others and since everyone makes bullish forecasts nobody can be blamed when the crash happens.
🙂 Exactly!
There is an old book from the 1889 that is full of observational wisdom (it is also very funny, I strongly recommend it) and Jerome K. Jerome makes a similar point about weather predictions:
“But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand.”
― Jerome K. Jerome, Three Men in a Boat
I remember when Rukeyser kicked the last negative elf off his show, as the Nasdaq topped out in 2000.
By the middle of the year both intermediate cycles will be aligned to the downside. There is another 20-30% to the downside from here.
By the way if the markets were down for 2018 and we had decent economic growth imagine what happens if we actually get a real recession and negative growth. The banks are going to be disappointed if they think they are going to get more free money from the Fed. My guess is we get a double dip recession in 2019 and the deeper one in 2020 when the debt problem ensues. My guess is Trump exits the office and declares victory at some point. The mess will be P&P’s watch.
I think a lot of forecasts got changed after what happen in December. Many were expecting a slowdown in 2019 but after the markets went haywire they recalibrated everything. My forecast is S&P will be down 15-20% at the end of 2019 but we will take the scenic route.
Baby steps … can it even break above 2630 convincingly again?
23%! I’m a fool not to go all in. Free money!
The median return is above 8%(excluding dividends), so that’s the most likely number. That’s what I would pick if it’s a contest to be correct.
Mish: I’d recommend digging out last year’s version of this chart, and seeing if any of them predicted a 5-10% drop in the S&P500 in 2018. The real reason this is unbelievable isn’t that they are predicting positive returns, it is that they are bothering to predict at all based on their track record.
Looks like Morgan Stanley did best at 2750, and they made the same call for this year. Interesting. There was some muttering about ” a rolling bear”.