Theresa May’s “sell the farm” deal went down in flames today. What’s Next?
The UK “Remainers” are cheering today’s vote as if they have a chance at a second referendum. It’s theoretically possible, but it’s the least likely outcome.
Reasons Against Second Referendum
- People don’t want it.
- MPs don’t want it.
- The EU is highly unlikely to wait for one
- Heck, no one even knows how to word it
Once again, the default position is a no-deal Brexit. In the absence of any other agreement that the EU would accept, no-deal wins.
In regards to point number 4, there are many choices: stay, leave with no deal, leave with May’s deal, leave with a Canada deal, leave with a Norway deal.
It is ridiculous to expect the UK to wait for the UK. And it is equally ridiculous to expect Parliament to offer a straight-up stay-leave choice when the majority of the MPs want to leave.
As a theoretical exercise, it’s possible for the EU to grant a lengthy extension, but they said they wouldn’t.
It’s far more likely proponents of “remain” actually cause a no-deal Brexit by clinging to ridiculous hopes. Let’s investigate more likely outcomes.
What’s Next?
Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence. Unlike motions from within the party, there is no limit to the number of times he may try that tactic.
Parliament votes on his motion tomorrow at 7:00 PM local, 1:00 PM US Central.
Corbyn will likely will lose. The reason is DUP will not want to put Labour in charge, and will thus back May.
DUP’s Position
“We never wanted a change in government, we wanted a change in policy”- Sammy Wilson says DUP will back PM in Wednesday’s confidence motion#BrexitVote latest: https://t.co/EdKCKRvfxY #politicslive pic.twitter.com/Pdq1AnS5VZ
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 15, 2019
DUP does not seal the deal as it is possible all the opposition parties could vote “no” along with enough Tories remainers who would be willing to risk an election.
No Vote
If there was a “no confidence” motion, the Tories would have 14 days to find someone who could muster a majority, and it would have to be a majority that DUP would support.
May Could Resign
May could resign tomorrow, and she should, but that too is unlikely.
If she resigned, Tories would have 14 days to find someone who could muster a majority, and again it would have to be a majority that DUP would support.
If no such candidate could muster a majority, then there would be elections.
Elections
Elections are possible, but it’s unlikely the EU would grant a lengthy Brexit extension.
If not, then a no-deal Brexit would win out.
No-Deal Wins by Default
No matter how one twists and turns, a no-deal Brexit is the default option.
If at some point a majority for a Norway deal surfaced, DUP could scuttle it by siding with Labour in a motion of no confidence. Corbyn would likely chomp at the bit.
That would again take us back to this pertinent point: Tories would have 14 days to find someone who could muster a majority, and it would have to be a majority that DUP would support.
Boris Johnson
The above complications all point to May being outed and replaced by Johnson, who wants a hard Brexit.
Alternatively, May could finally get her way on the pathetic deal she negotiated.
EU Response
The only wildcard left is the EU. If the EU offered a hard guarantee there would be no permanent backstop, May’s deal could potentially garner enough support.
No-Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome
Given what happened today, and based on the above analysis, a no deal Brexit is the most likely state of affairs, one way or another.
Many paths lead to a no-deal outcome.
There are too many possibilities to say no-deal is likely. Rather, it’s the most likely option of the bunch.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Ah, Mish, you still don’t get it. Parliament had a near super-majority that wants to remain in the EU- the Tory-Remain faction in Parliament, of which May is a member by the way, needed to create as much chaos as possible to get that 2nd referendum. The EU, in the meantime has already prepared the ground for this by indicating that a delay is perfectly ok and that a choice to Remain is legal- they will make this explicit by the end of the month. A motion in Parliament will be put forward and will pass with the minimal number of votes that sets up the 2nd referendum for sometime in July. I predict the referendum will have three choices- May Brexit Deal, No-Deal Brexit, and Remain. Even allowing people a conditional vote (1st choice, 2nd choice), the presences of two Brexit options will greatly depress Brexit turnout as the Brexiteer engage in political warfare with each other- Remain will likely win a majority.
Reasons for the 2nd referendum:
The elites want it.
“MPs don’t want it”.
We in the UK know that most MPs want to remain in the EU. Politicians have a proclivity for anything that means more government. They are kept in check by the fear of backlash that might happen if they decide to override the Brexit vote. The fact that it would signal the end of democracy if they either cancel Brexit or call another vote doesnt worry them so much as that potential backlash. If we do manage to escape the clutches of the EU, we may well have the gilets jaunes to thank for our freedom.
“WTO-trade-Brexit is a better name for a NO deal Brexit.”
Precisely – Expect a “managed” Brexit
As I see it there could be a Brexit deal if May would be willing to work with Labour. If the current Brexit deal is amended so it allows for the UK to remain in the customs union, May would have a majority as both DUP and Labour would vote for it. It would piss off many Tories of course. They still could leave the customs union later as the current Brexit deal is only a temporary measure to cover the the time until a final Brexit deal has been negotiated.
“Tory remainers would be very stupid to vote with Labour on the no confidence vote because they would likely be voted out if there were new elections.”
My expectation but not necessarily stupid. If May is gone Tories would have 14 days to replace her.
It’s absolutely WONDERFUL to read about your support for a no-deal brexit. It’s imperative that we have a no-deal brexit a no-deal brexit in order to save the country as its the only scenario that respects the referendum result & delivers on the wishes of the British people.
Hmm… I don’t see big moves in both currency and stock markets on the news.
Skynet was advised to take all this out of the equation lol.
As recession creeps into the EU economy, they will need Germany and Britain to bail out the rest of the nations… not one, but both is the only thing that will keep the EU charade going. Let’s see how that goes.
Three countries keep the EU project alive with their financial contributions.
Germany, France and the UK.
Hard exit means the end of the EU. It has much more to lose than the UK.
All politics aside – it’s a Financial decision in the end.
I would suggest a compromise will arise.
Hard horse trading before the actual date of Brexit
Bull-headed has a new synonym and that is Theresa May! Or her actions are questionable in its intent!!
“May had no plans to head to Brussels immediately, No 10 said, implying that the prime minister first needed to test what would be acceptable to MPs.” (source:
In fact when it has been clear all along that the deal was not acceptable to a majority of MPs (and thus would lose the floor test) May should have tested what is acceptable to MPs much earlier. How is it only a historic defeat gets you thinking?
While May portrays that she is trying to get the best deal possible for Leave, her actions reeks of duplicity.
source was missed out in above (
Theresa May tried to be strong with politicians in her home country while groveling in front of EU bureaucrats and EU leaders.
Unfortunately many EU countries politicians do the same:
-they try to pose as strong back home
-they grovel in front of EU politicians and EU bureaucrats
Another part of that behavior is taking whatever rubbish EU gives them and then claiming at home that they fought and brilliantly negotiated for what they got when in truth they took whatever EU gave them.
Mish may wel be right about a no-deal default. At the same time, it would be paradoxical since every one on all sides (EU [particularly Germany and the Netherlands] British, remainers, most Brexiteers) would rather have that good relations continue, and that any deal, no matter how minimal, would be a notch better than none at all.
Tory remainers would be very stupid to vote with Labour on the no confidence vote because they would likely be voted out if there were new elections.
I think May will be supported until the WTO-trade-Brexit aka NO deal Brexit happens 29th March 2019 so despite May trying to in effect sabotage Brexit with her stupid and incompetent Deal (that would have started years of negotiations on the final terms of UK-EU relationship and that had the backstop-Prison with EU having the key to the lock) she will be in history books as the PM who fulfilled Brexit.
Sometime after Brexit has happened Tories will vote no confidence on May in parliament if Labour will call the no confidence vote again and have it already planned out who will get support from Tories and DUP within 14 days and just continue governing with new PM.
Another option is internal Tory vote of confidence 1 year from the last one to just switch May to somebody else inside Tories.
Hate to disagree with you but here goes.
Johnson and Darius Guppy to confirm.)
Perhaps you can answer a question. Why do Americans admire charlatans like Johnson?
Basically all your points are BS:
Boris Johnson is goofy and speaks without a political correctness filter and dresses shabbily but he is very popular with Tory voters.
When May is voted out Johnson has at least 50% chance of being the next Tory leader.
Those who hate him among Tories are EU loving remainers and some Brexiteers who are jealous of him.
Gove who back-stabbed Johnson at the least leadership competition is widely disliked and blamed for Tories ending up with the incompetent May.
Some in UK press and media hate Johnson as much as CNN hates Trump.
New referendum is NOT going to happen and the most likely result is WTO-trade-Brexit (NO deal) OR a last minute cave-in by EU once Germany and France realize how much they could get hurt in the event of NO deal Brexit.
(EU calculated UK would cave and take the bad deal May incompetently negotiated after lots of Project Fear part 2 fear-mongering)
Third option is EFTA/EEA solution since in EFTA UK could decide their own agriculture and fisheries policy and negotiate their own trade deals and stay out of Schengen. The drawback to EFTA is free movement of EU workers to UK.
3.
Dominic Raab was sabotaged in the negotiations by May and May’s adviser Olly Robbins since it is pretty difficult to negotiate when May’s attitude was UK will take any kind of deal because May believes UK must have a deal with EU no matter how bad and told this incompetently to EU leaders and Olly Robbins told this to EU bureaucrats so EU leaders/bureaucrats miscalculated the situation and tried to take advantage of UK and make it an EU vassal state and use UK as horror example with the bad deal how no other country should ever consider leaving EU.
Calais is important but there are other ports in Netherlands and Belgium that could be used. Also if Macron would destroy French farmers exports to UK by creating a slowdown in Calais then Macron would have yellow vest movement times ten attacking him with irate French farmers (only some of who are in the yellow vest movement but who all would be attacking Macron in the event Macron would sabotage their exports.)
Oh dear, refute the points I made by all means but your points are incoherent.
Read Dr North’s blog. Armed with fact you can come back.
Boris Johnson is popular in the same way that Reagan and Trump were/are popular amongst the ordinary people: the whole point of court jesters is that they alone can speak the truth. Churchill was a variant of this. Charlatan?
Calais officials have already said that a no-deal Brexit represents no difficulty for them. How do you think US goods enter and leave France?
Dominic Raab gets some sympathy from ordinary people because he was so overtly snubbed and stabbed in the back by the deeply unpopular May. He is, in popular parlance, a decent and intelligent man — and we’d all like one of those in power for a change.
I agree that Johnson is popular among Conservative party members. The Conservativehome blog confirms this week after week. Conservative MPs know he is a buffoon and will not allow his name to go forward to the second round where the membership gets the chance to vote.
Raab did not know that the UK was an island dependent on the Calais-Dover route for food supplies. Mrs May was probably right to cut him out of the loop.
The French authorities have not made statements as you claim.
US goods enter the EU at Rotterdam and then are distributed to the
rest of the EU via road, rail or smaller ships.
It is probably a mistake to talk about single members of the EU in these matters. The EU is the Customs Union and Single Market. Individual member countries enforce EU law at their various borders. The only authority to rely on in matters of border policy is the EU.
WTO-trade-Brexit is a better name for a NO deal Brexit.