"No Recession in Sight": Translating Trump and Kudlow

Please consider Trump 'Not Ready' for China Trade Deal, Dismisses Recession Fears.

Consumers Doing Well

• Trump: “We’re doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money.”
• Trump Translated: The "tremendous tax" cut primarily benefited the wealthy. Consumers are tapped out. That's why housing and autos are on the ropes.

Deal With China

• Trump: “I’m not ready to make a deal yet [with China].”
• Trump Translated: China is damn sick and tired of my tactics. They prefer to wait hoping for a Democrat president.
• Trump: “I would like to see Hong Kong worked out in a very humanitarian fashion,” Trump said. “I think it would be very good for the trade deal.”
• Trump Translated: I have completely abandoned the idea there will soon be a trade deal unless I further capitulate to the demands of China. I was forced to give Huawei Another 90-Day Reprieve and sadly, I Chickened Out by Delaying my Trade War Tariffs to Save the Holiday Season.

Recession

• Kudlow: “There is no recession in sight. Consumers are working. Their wages are rising. They are spending and they are saving.”
• Kudlow Translated: Judging from manufacturing, Recession is Imminent. Real wages are falling fast. New Buyers cannot afford to buy a home, because the Housing Bubble Reblown: Last Chance for a Good Price Was 7 Years Ago. Consumers are spending by going further in debt. The setup is not sustainable. It's the Debt Stupid. Expect Panic Rate Cuts.

Got Gold?

This concludes another Mish public service announcement.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock