The Fed is trapped between a rock and a hard place. They should have started raising rates early this year or late last before the market ran up. I wrote this somewhere earlier this year. 2021 reminds me more of 1999 than any other year. For the younglings here, the frothiest markets (tech) dropped by 2/3 after reaching their peak in February 2000. The Fed has to let some air out of this bubble that ran up in 2020 and 2021 but they didn’t do enough to balance the risks between different asset classes. They were content to let all asset classes appreciate like in the late 90s interest rate cycle. It seems like they are poor at either acting too late (2008) or too much/early (2020). They shouldn’t be scared to increase rates now but some banks are going to go under when they do and that will require a bailout.
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Gee, I dunno, Mish. That Gucci Ghost thing is like ’69’. Does that make it porn? I’d pay more for porn. Not $69 million. Maybe six bucks, ninety cents?
Anon1970
2 years ago
It sounds like the Dutch tulip craze of the 1630’s.
The Dutch tulip craze was self-driven by greed. Borrowing was with interest and risk. There was noone pushing it ahead. The difference is big.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
OT…latest O & G picks added to the energy portfolio are Jr. Canadians Arc (AETUF) and Whitecap (WCP). Looking to add a third, Journey Energy (JOY). Everybody needs a little JOY, right? The thing these companies all have in common is a P/FCF of 8 or less. For JOY it’s <3. Really.
Doug78
2 years ago
My collection of 19th Century used toothpicks hopefully will increase in value on the back of this.
Every toothpick is unique so they are nonfungible. The University of St Andrews has an interesting collection and I hope they will pay up for mine. This is a small part of theirs:
Putin misses the Soviet Union. His desire to recreate a Russia is stronger than ever. BUK missiles are now lined up on the border with Ukraine. Every once in awhile even a KGB officer slips up but there is a tell here for Putin’s greatest desire for Russia.
Not to worry. Biden is the master of cluster-fudge foreign policy.
Ras-Putin likes playing games, poking the bear–keeping the US agitated and wasting its time.
China, on the other hand…
FooFooFed
2 years ago
Genius! Perhaps the ART is that on the whole the world of NFT is a direct reflection of our broken Society. Now who wants in on a NFT format sports betting website? You can trade non existent make believe players for 100k$ each. hahahahahaha.
RonJ
2 years ago
What is an NFT of a tulip going for theses days?
Eddie_T
2 years ago
It’s a brave new world that I have no interest in living in, whatsoever.
I’ll stick with the things I love, as far as art and collecting. It only makes sense that a guy who likes tangible assets should only be interested in tangible art. Painting, sculpture, and literature are my jam.
I have a few very nice pieces of art that will stand the test of time….and lots of stuff that probably won’t be worth much in 100 years…but I have enjoyed looking at it and owning it. To each his own. Art is very much in the eye of the beholder.
Here in Austin (at the Blanton) you can see the collection that James Michener and his wife bought in the 1960’s in NY, at the height of abstract expressionism. Most of it looks like junk to me. A few pieces, though, seem to stand out far above the rest….that’s the way art works.
I do enjoy the kind of pieces these days that couldn’t exist without computers and technology……you see them everywhere in shows and museums. Lights and patterns and moving parts. But those are still tangible things that exist in the real world.
Ethereum has use cases, of which this is just one of many. In the future, use case will determine the value of cryptos……once BTC fades. Three things drive ETH price…..use cases, the fact that it appears cheaper than BTC for what it is, and the star quality of the genius behind it.
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Why not just create a top-of-the-froth-mania NTF manufactured, crafted, inspired, and maintained by the dumbest of the highest placed in financial system.
thimk
2 years ago
great Sunday morning read. Have any photographers used this new paradigm to market their images . ?? It seems that any visual effect, real or other wise could be auctioned .
Doug78
2 years ago
Nonfungible bitcoins are used to buy nonfungible NTFs which are nonfungible works of art. Since the value of both depends upon the appreciation of the buyer then one could say that bitcoin and NTFs are just different forms of money and are used interchangeably and probably by the same group of people.
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Sort under:
Business models which makes sense in dystopias where ownership of near all wealth, have been officially redistributed to society’s dumbest, most gullible and least threatening members. And where those gullible dumbeffs have been conditioned to feel confident that, no mater how stupid and useless they are and behave, governments and central banks will always and everywhere force their productive superiors to pick up the tab for their never-ending series of repeated idiocies.
1-shot
2 years ago
I’ll stick to collecting old school paint on canvas and bronze art. But beauty (and value) truly is in the eye of the beholder.
And I haven’t set up my avatar eyes yet to be able to appreciate NFT’s.
Six000mileyear
2 years ago
NFT’s are the mouse clicks of the DotCom bubble, but at higher prices.
Zardoz
2 years ago
These are loooong numbers, that everyone can see belong to YOU! Think of the prestige!
caradoc-again
2 years ago
Perhaps not a bubble yet, just a sign of massive excess liquidity.
It’s a great
innovation. I can now keep my very expensive art collection in my telephone.
Couldn’t do that before. This technology makes me theoretically wealthier than an ancient
Roman emperor.
anoop
2 years ago
a friend told me that she made $40k in 2 months selling nfts. if you’re not doing crypto and nft, then all i can say is “have fun staying poor”. i don’t do crypto and nft and i’m having fun staying poor.
Steve_R
2 years ago
Loads of risk out there in the crypto, stock, bond, currency and housing markets. What about sports memorabilia markets?
I am only interested in the infrastructure on the blockchain and how many projects reside on them.
Mish, your charts are not exactly right with bitcoin and ethereum. These coins can be staked for interest along with stable coins and other alt coins.
Here is a video featuring Jeff Booth link to youtube.com he talks about two different markets fighting themselves, deflationary disruptive technology markets against the world debt and bankers trying to cause inflation. I found this fascinating.
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
The living world has always had and always will have conspicuous consumption.
caradoc-again
2 years ago
Bubble.
Stan888
2 years ago
An NFT is no substitute for a copyright or trademark. It is close to worthless from a legal standpoint. A sucker is born every day.
seems counterintuitive – but by placing the image in the public domain might enhance it’s value . (i.e the more people that see it, the more someone might want to bid for the “original”. ) just a thought
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It’s a great
innovation. I can now keep my very expensive art collection in my telephone.
Couldn’t do that before. This technology makes me theoretically wealthier than an ancient
Roman emperor.