Bernanke in a Fog Again
https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/1314242324088709121
It was not clear to Bernanke in 2007 that there was a raging housing bubble either.
In fact, he denied there was one.
Why Are We Still Listening to This Guy?
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In the above link Bernanke says that forwards guidance won’t work if the neutral rate is below 2%. Amusingly, his solution is to raise forward guidance.
100% Proven Track Record
Ben Bernanke has a 100% track record of denying bubbles.
Moreover, even in retrospect, he cannot and will not self-assess.
He will not admit that absurd Fed policies helped span the dot-com bubble and 100% created the housing bubble.
Mish
Their life’s are full doing nothing, very smart book wise but can’t se it coming. PLUS, there paid to look the other way by big money.
None of these people like Bernanke or Yellen have a clue to what’s really going on. Like you said, they have no clue because their brains are closed. The same goes for the 100s of high paid Economics PhD’s at the Fed. It’s a ridiculous “group-think.”
“a want of knowledge that must be the result of years of study” — Oscar Wilde
I always wonder a smart as these guys are, are they filling us with crap or do they genuinely not see what’s going on?
Apple for instance has no room to grow. 2 T market cap. What will the value be in 20 years at current growth rate? Today’s total gdp? Is that realistic?
“Why Are We Still Listening to This Guy?”
Why does Peter Schiff’s ever ongoing predictions about gold hitting $5000 any day soon (over at least the past 15 years) still get some people’s attention?
Why did anyone listen to an already discredited Neil Ferguson, who predicted 500,000+ dead from Covid-19 in the UK alone? Actual deaths so far – 43K.
The MSM controls the message AND the messaging. They have to keep posting stuff to have something to contain the advertising messages. Truth doesn’t matter.
So this time it’s been rational exuberance?
At least that ghoul Greenspan had occasional moments of clarity. Bernanke bleeds Kool-Aid.
What if Bernanke is assuming the dollar is just as over-valued?
The stock market is often a reflection of expectations, not current reality. What are Bernanke’s expectations for the dollar?
It does seem like an index fund is the modern way to live with inflation. As a bank account was back in the day.
Bernanke never had much credibility. Like Paul Krugman, he’s a useful idiot, putting lipstick on a pig in service to shadowy bond kings who own the world’s biggest banks. He does what has to be done…..spin a false narrative that allows the game of musical chairs to go on for another year..or five, or ten.
But in his defense, not all P/E ratios are off the charts these days.
Apple is at 18
GM is at 6.2
J&J is at 21
Google is at 32
Even Facebook….a mere 37….Used to be much higher.
Of course there are others way more overvalued….but you could make a case that it’s been worse in the past.
CAPE is more important to long-term investors, and Robinhood traders don’t care about such metrics.
“Why Are We Still Listening to This Guy?”
Nobody’s listening to this guy, but they had to fill the lunch break during the forum with some speaker.
With his carefully crafted scholar image, he doesn’t look like doctor Strangelove out to destroy the world.
Definitely good to listen to before the dessert.
And the jokes just keep writing themselves.
Bernanke, as well as everyone else at the Fed, is intellectually ridged. Group think turned up to 11.
That, at some point, should become obvious to someone at the Fed (if it has not already) as they are continuously forced to double down with the same policies that have not worked as intended and have only created massive distortions in income, wealth and market pricing.
I suspect that Bernanke knows this and is being disingenuous. Why anyone would pay to hear this blubbering idiot is beyond me.
That being said, at this point it is too late to turn back or reassess. As a result, I see a lot more doubling down before this the whole mess implodes.
I think a FED member said that another 3 trillion in stimulus was needed.
That would allegedly boost stock prices.
3.5 Trillion…..but who’s counting pennies.
BTW, do you think it will ever occur to just one single person on the Fed, that every nation that has adopted ZIRP or NIRP has experienced a REDUCTION in growth not an increase? Implication being the raising rates is one ingredient in achieving higher faster growth.
True but once you accept what the Fed has accepted – that ZIRP is here forever and ever and ever and ever (add a new thousand more forevers) than is not a bubble because it’s forever.
He and less so Greenspan are going to go down in history as the destroyers of American capitalism.