The final Nowcast estimate for 4th quarter GDP is an anticlimactic 3.9% today vs. the actual BEA estimate of 2.6%. The forecast for the first quarter is 3.1%.

Nowcast First-Quarter GDP Estimate

Image placeholder title

Note that today's GDP report did not change the Nowcast First-Quarter estimate.

Today's GDP advance announcement was weaker than expected. Some found hidden strength, others hidden weakness.

For discussion, please see Weaker Than Expected GDP: Mixed Bag or Worse?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

4th-Quarter GDP Forecasts Off To Weak Start

GDPNow and Nowcast Forecasts for 4th-quarter GDP are 1% and 0.7% respectively.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?

The FRBNY Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP dipped slightly today on account of the wholesale inventory report earlier this week.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow Forecast 3.9%, Nowcast 2.1%: What to Watch a Week From Now

The GDPNow forecast is much stronger than Nowcast. The BEA will report GDP on Oct 26. Watch real final sales.

Nowcast GDP Forecast Surges, GDPNow Forecast is Down a Bit

The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today.