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The final Nowcast estimate for 4th quarter GDP is an anticlimactic 3.9% today vs. the actual BEA estimate of 2.6%. The forecast for the first quarter is 3.1%.

Nowcast First-Quarter GDP Estimate

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Note that today's GDP report did not change the Nowcast First-Quarter estimate.


Today's GDP advance announcement was weaker than expected. Some found hidden strength, others hidden weakness.

For discussion, please see Weaker Than Expected GDP: Mixed Bag or Worse?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock