Step Towards Convergence

Whereas the GDPNow forecast fell from 2.3% to 2.1%, the Nowcast forecast jumped from 0.7% to 1.3%.

  • The gaps between the two competing forecasts was 1.6 percentage points a week ago.
  • Today the gap is 0.8 percentage points.

Conversation on the Models

Industrial Production

Convergence is somewhat due to Nowcast delays in factoring in industrial production impacts in the wake of the GM Strike that Ended on

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

I commented on the bump on December 17: Industrial Production Rebounds after GM Strike Ends.

Looking ahead, Boeing is going to have a significant impact in the first quarter.

Thousands of jobs and possibly as much as 1/3 of a point of GDP as Boeing Will Suspend 737 Max Production in January.

Inventory Analysis

The most interesting aspect of the report is GDPNow sees a first quarter drawdown in inventory but Twitter comments seem to expect an inventory build.

Inventory calculations are a crapshoot even in normal circumstances. They are even more difficult now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow Forecast Surges to 4.7%: Spread to Nowcast an Amazing 2.7 Percentage Pts

Following today's ISM and construction reports, the GDPNow forecast for 3rd-Quarter GDP rose to 4.7%. Nowcast is 2.0%.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

GDPNow Forecast 3.9%, Nowcast 2.1%: What to Watch a Week From Now

The GDPNow forecast is much stronger than Nowcast. The BEA will report GDP on Oct 26. Watch real final sales.

GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.