by Mish

GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — June 30, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.7 percent on June 30, down from 2.9 percent on June 26. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth fell from –0.34 percentage points to –0.51 percentage points after Wednesday’s advance release on inventories and international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — June 30, 2017

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2 and 1.6% for 2017:Q3.
  • The effect of news from this week’s data releases was small, leaving the nowcast for both quarters broadly unchanged.
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Once again, the Nowcast barely budges on most data but GDPnow swings wildly. This could work either way in theory.

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GDPNow forecasts more often so there is more potential for lots of ups and downs. However, by reporting only once a week, if data balances out (some positive and some negative impacts), the Nowcasts could be less volatile.

But the opposite is also possible. If the results are additive, Nowcast could also move more.

In practice, if one looks at the total adjustments in the preceding chart, Nowcast did not budge on anything but GDPNow did.

Nowcast Third Quarter

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Mish Second Quarter Forecast Update

Following two reasonably good housing reports and no more absolute disasters, I am near 1% GDP for the quarter with inventory a huge wildcard. I have no idea how the BEA is going to value all the new and used cars sitting unsold on dealer lots.

60-65% of the data is in for the quarter, but revisions are common. In contrast to the past few reports, I have little confidence in any of the estimates.

That said, the economy is barely plodding along. The Nowcast for third quarter provides additional evidence.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?

The FRBNY Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP dipped slightly today on account of the wholesale inventory report earlier this week.

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Estimate Ticks Down to 2.8%: Looking Ahead, What’s in Store for the Forecasts

In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Ticks Up Slightly Despite Growing Trade Imbalance: Expect Trade Howls

Despite poor but not horrendous economic reports today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for first quarter GDP ticked up slightly today, from 2.4% to 2.5%

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Tracking GDPNow Forecasts vs. Reality: What About that Initial 2nd Quarter Estimate?

On May 1, the GDPNow Model came up with an initial forecast of 4.3% for second quarter GDP.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

Third-Quarter GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 2.5%, Nowcast 1.5%

The volatility of GDPNow vs Nowcast is once again on display in recent weeks.