by Mish

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast is well off its previous high of 3.4% and down to 2.7%.

Let’s take a look.

Nowcast Report Updated: February 10, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 3.1% for 2017:Q1.
  • Positive news from imports and exports moved the nowcast up by 0.2 percentage point over the past week.

GDPNow forecast: 2.7 percent — February 7, 2017

I discussed the latest GDPNow forecast on February 7, in GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 2.7% from 3.4%: What Happened?

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In a follow-up post, Pat Higgins, GDPNow Creator Responded to a Question on Employment.

The highly-touted 227,000 jobs gain was not so terrific after all. The employment report took 0.4 percentage points off the previous estimate of 3.4%. Auto sales took off another 0.3 percentage points.

Nonetheless, here we sit with a pair of forecasts of 2.7% and 3.1%.

If accurate, the Fed will be itching to hike. As for now, I remain with my usual stance that generally serves me well: “I’ll take the under”.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Plunges to 1.3% Following Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders Reports

The GDPNow Model forecast for 1st quarter 2017 GDP plunged 0.5 percentage points to 1.3% following recent economic data.