The yield curve flattened across the board following the December 19 FOMC rate hike decision.

Chart Notes

  • The December 18 level is from Fred, the St. Lois Fed repository.
  • The "Level Today" column is a spot reading at the moment, approximately 1:00 AM central, December 20, 2018.
  • The 30-year long bond yield is 2.97% after an extended fake-out trip above 3.0%.



  1. The 5-year is inverted with the 3-, 2-, and 1-year yield.
  2. The 3-year is inverted with the 2- and 1-year yield.
  3. The 2-year is inverted with the 1-year yield.

Don't kid yourself.

Recession is coming. This may be all the signal you get.

I don't care what the Fed does or says at this point: It's Too Late to Matter.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Inversions Galore!

The number of US Treasury bond inversions took a big leap today. I count 5 inversions, three of them with the 1-Yr bill.

Yield Curve Update: 10-Year vs 1-Month Inversion Persists

The yield curve inversion persists and even widened, selectively.

Entire Yield Curve Inverts, 30-Year Long Bond Yield Dives to Record Low

The stock markets are getting clobbered and bonds are on fire as recession fears escalate.

Yield Curve Inversion Coming Up?

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield curve inversion.

Yield Curve Inversions Again Stretch Out 7 Years

Huge portions of the the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it's another warning.

Bond Yields Dive on Apple Warning, ISM Report

Yields took another dive lower today with the 1-year to 7-year inversion still intact.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

Relentless Yield Curve Flattening

Most economists expect the Fed will hike at least twice more this year. If so, portions of the yield curve may invert.

First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?

The 5-year to the 3-year portion of the yield curve inverted today. Inversion is typically a prelude to recession.