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The yield curve flattened across the board following the December 19 FOMC rate hike decision.

Chart Notes

  • The December 18 level is from Fred, the St. Lois Fed repository.
  • The "Level Today" column is a spot reading at the moment, approximately 1:00 AM central, December 20, 2018.
  • The 30-year long bond yield is 2.97% after an extended fake-out trip above 3.0%.


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  1. The 5-year is inverted with the 3-, 2-, and 1-year yield.
  2. The 3-year is inverted with the 2- and 1-year yield.
  3. The 2-year is inverted with the 1-year yield.

Don't kid yourself.

Recession is coming. This may be all the signal you get.

I don't care what the Fed does or says at this point: It's Too Late to Matter.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock