Things aren't going well for Theresa May today, yesterday, last week, last month, etc. You get the idea.

After failing to even hold a vote that she pledged to win, May went on a whirlwind EU tour to convince EU leaders to modify the Brexit agreement.

May traveled to the Hague, Berlin and Brussels to seek EU support for concessions on the Brexit deal.

Scorecard

  1. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel: No
  2. Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte: No
  3. European Council President, Donald Tusk: No
  4. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker: No

Theresa May met Merkel, Rutte, and Tusk in person.

Merkel Tells May Deal Cannot Be Renegotiated

Here's the key headline of the day Merkel Tells May Deal Cannot Be Renegotiated

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, both said the EU would not reopen the deal that has already been negotiated. And, after his meeting with May, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, stressed how difficult it would be for the EU to give May what she needed.

Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no-confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”

Known Liar

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  • May repeatedly promised a vote, then backed down at the very last second on a fool's mission with the EU.
  • She also stated numerous time that no deal is better than a bad deal before delivering a deal that smelled like rotten fish.
  • May would not even turn over legal advice that when finally released proved the EU could perpetually keep the UK in a customs agreement. Instead, May insisted that was not the case.

Leadership Challenge?

The Tories have 317 MPs. It takes 15% to request a leadership challenge, thus 48. A simple majority of those 317 would oust May.

That they struggle to reach 48 tells me that May would survive the vote, possibly strengthened. But she is doing everything she can to sow distrust.

No Majorities

  • A majority does not want a no-deal brexit.
  • A majority does not want to stay in.
  • A majority does is not in favor of a Norway option.
  • A majority does not favor a Canada arrangement.
  • A majority does not favor May's deal.

Default Position

The default position is a no-deal brexit. That is, if no other agreement is reached, a no-deal brexit occurs.

That is a tremendous advantage for the no-deal option. Both sides have to prepare for it. The more preparations that are made, the less scary it is.

But don't expect the EU or May to give in easily. The EU says they won't renegotiate, but look for some language "clarifications".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​

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