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End of First Wave

Via Email, Challenger and Gray issued these statements.

"We are reaching the end of the first wave of layoffs. All the Americans immediately impacted by the shutdowns have been navigating the unemployment insurance system over the last five weeks. Now, we'll see a lull before the next big wave of corporate layoffs hits," said Andrew Challenger, SVP of global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

"A vicious cycle of falling employment begetting falling consumer spending has begun. The longer we stay quarantined, the higher the next spike in job loss will be. It's a morbid race between flattening the COVID curve and capping the unemployment curve," said Challenger. 

The end of the first wave seems accurate, but perhaps a week early. I expect another 2 million or so to file next week. 

For now it's been furloughs. If business does not pick up to pre-crisis levels (and it won't), the result will be permanent layoffs. Some things have changed forever.

Forever Changed

  • More teleconferencing and fewer corporate lunches
  • Less air travel, hotels, and car rentals at the personal and business level
  • More work at home
  • More do-it-yourself haircuts, nails, lawns, etc.
  • Fewer car purchases
  • Fewer home purchases 
  • Accelerated online shopping and more mall closures

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Mish