End of First Wave

Via Email, Challenger and Gray issued these statements.

"We are reaching the end of the first wave of layoffs. All the Americans immediately impacted by the shutdowns have been navigating the unemployment insurance system over the last five weeks. Now, we'll see a lull before the next big wave of corporate layoffs hits," said Andrew Challenger, SVP of global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

"A vicious cycle of falling employment begetting falling consumer spending has begun. The longer we stay quarantined, the higher the next spike in job loss will be. It's a morbid race between flattening the COVID curve and capping the unemployment curve," said Challenger. 

The end of the first wave seems accurate, but perhaps a week early. I expect another 2 million or so to file next week. 

For now it's been furloughs. If business does not pick up to pre-crisis levels (and it won't), the result will be permanent layoffs. Some things have changed forever.

Forever Changed

  • More teleconferencing and fewer corporate lunches
  • Less air travel, hotels, and car rentals at the personal and business level
  • More work at home
  • More do-it-yourself haircuts, nails, lawns, etc.
  • Fewer car purchases
  • Fewer home purchases 
  • Accelerated online shopping and more mall closures


What's Next?

On March 23, I wrote Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

I noted 20 "What's Next?" things.

Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis

The Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis. Do not expect a V-shaped recovery. 

The knock on impacts of all of those means more bankruptcies and less employment..


16.78 Million Unemployment Claims in Last 3 Weeks

Unemployment claims rose 6.606 million in the week of April 4, the third consecutive miserable week.

Unemployment Claims More Than Double Last Week's Record Total

Initial unemployment claims more than double last weeks total, and last week was then the largest in history.

Last Week's Alleged Improvement in Unemployment Claims Was Just Revised Away

Jobless claims for the week ending February 6 were reported last week as 793,000. That was supposedly a sign of a strong job recovery. But it didn't happen.