Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

June 12, 2022

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8:43 pm

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71 comments

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Economics

Data from Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, April 27 to May 9, 2022

Struggling to Pay Bills

According to Mark Wolfe, the executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association (NEADA ) many families are facing potential power shutoffs if they cannot pay their overdue home energy bills.

“More than 20 million families are currently behind on their utility bills, owing about $23 billion, up from about $10.5 billion at the end of 2019,” Wolfe said to CNN.

Census Department Household Pulse Survey

Let’s take a look at Week 45 Household Pulse Survey: April 27 – May 9, 2022 for more data on ability to pay rent.

The lead chart is from Household Pulse data.

Household Pulse Survey Methodology

There are lots of issues with the data and the numbers are misleading.
The Census Bureau surveys people older than 18, not just households, so many households will be double counted.
As of 2021 there are about 126 million households but the Census Department surveyed over 252 million people.
Huge numbers of people did not respond. I suspect lower educated persons and those struggling would be less likely to respond.

I went to compare this May to a year ago but the Census Department did not ask that question a year ago.

The Census Department did ask that question in September of 2021 and numbers are generally up by 2 million or so across the board. However, comparing May to September is a bit questionable.

Finally, the Census Department cautions “These data are experimental. Users should take caution using estimates based on subpopulations of the data – sample sizes may be small and the standard errors may be large.“

With those caveats in mind, here are some other charts from Week 45.

Household Keeping Temperature at Unsafe Level

Household Unable to Pay Full Energy Bill

Given extreme ambiguities in the data collection by the Census Department, all we can reasonably assume is the numbers of people struggling with energy bills is well over 20 million and rising rapidly.

Summer of Discontent Coming

Things will get worse in July heat with air conditioning bills and again in winter with the price of natural gas and heating oil skyrocketing.

A huge summer of discontent is on the way as the CPI is at a 40-year high and rising.

Price of Gas Topped $5.00 Today

Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline topped $5 today. Yesterday, I commented Average Gas Price Just a Penny Shy of $5.00 a Gallon

CPI at 40-Year High

In case you missed it, please see Why Did Economists Blow the CPI Forecast So Badly This Month?

Unfortunately, higher rent prices are baked in the cake and that’s over 31 percent of the CPI.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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BDR45

1 year ago

As much as a capitalist as I am, and owning rental properties, and seeing the suffering of renters due to stagnant wages and rising expenses, I am now in favor of rent control, and even mandated rent reductions. I know, it’s “communist”, but we must over ride this current system to reduce the stress and discomfort of our fellow citizens, and put aside our desire for more money.

Anon1970

1 year ago

Reply to BDR45

Unfortunately, when the emergency goes away, rent control has a habit of staying around. New York City has had some form of rent control since 1943 (WWII). By 1970, NYC rent control had become so destructive that Time Magazine did a cover story on abandoned housing in Brooklyn. Small landlords could not charge enough to cover their expenses.

vboring

1 year ago

If there is a rise, the first place to explain why is that COVID policies temporarily made it easier to skip paying utility bills. Arrears piled up.

There’s lots of programs to prevent service shutoffs, few to deal with the back payments.

The summer isn’t the big story. Heat is annoying. Cold kills.

Anon1970

1 year ago

Reply to vboring

Excessive heat kills as well.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to Anon1970

I agree, you have to stay clear of lava eruptions. After lava or the occasional geyser, most heat deaths are due to stupidity or age and stupidity. However, without heat of some sort, persistent temperatures below the freezing point of water invariably result in death.

Casual_Observer2020

1 year ago

I’m hearing of multiple companies now putting on a hiring freeze. Layoffs are next. This all has a 2000+2007 feel to it.

Tony Bennett

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Are you sticking with your no recession call?

A few here (not you) have been flip flopping this year … to the point I’m calling them the Dirty Dozen*.

*During the War Games portion of the movie they kept switching armbands.

I ask since I respect everyone’s opinion (yours maybe a bit more than others).

Everything goes into the matrix.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to Tony Bennett

Tony, I wouldn’t know. I’m not a judge, I’m only an observer.

JeffD

1 year ago

Most people consider cable TV and 3 or 4 streaming services a necessity, so the results of that survey are meaningless.

Jmurr

1 year ago

Some of the billions Biden sent to Ukraine could have been used to help poor Americans keep their utilities on.

Anon1970

1 year ago

Reply to Jmurr

Since the end of WWII, our political class has been too busy interfering in the affairs of foreign countries to be all that concerned about poor Americans.

MPO45

1 year ago

Everyone is talking about “demand destruction” but what few are talking about is what really comes next: rationing. The difference?

Demand destruction = people can’t afford to buy.

Rationing = people aren’t allowed to buy no matter how much money you have. Working professionals will have plenty of cash but won’t be allowed to fill up.

The WORST hit will be those gas guzzling SUVs that live in suburbia. Soccer mom’s are gonna howl and howl loud.

I expect black markets to develop at some point as well, another thing no one is talking about. Plenty of money to be made by people that can think beyond one dimension and position accordingly.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Gas rationing will be rough if it happens, but the real worry would be if diesel is rationed. Gasoline is quite important, but diesel is the workhorse of the modern economy: all ocean and river shipping, all trucking, all trains, much mass transit, all air travel, all construction, two-thirds of farm equipment, one-third of all water and sewage pumps, all emergency generators including in hospitals. The average grocery store carries about a week’s worth of stock, and it’s delivered by diesel trucks.

Diesel takes a while to produce, and there’s no meaningful strategic reserve, believe it or not. If diesel runs dry, we’re in very big trouble. Or at least those of you who live in cities are. The average city dweller has only a few days of food on hand.

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

“The average city dweller has only a few days of food on hand.”

You must have missed my comment about stock piling food which I will say again, EVERYONE should stock up on some basic food stuffs: rice, beans, canned goods, honey. I have stockpiled enough food for a year.

All it takes is a black swan event such as hurricanes knocking gulf coast production or an expanded war and the rest will be history. Supply chains are already tight and add a hurricane to the mix…

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

We’ve been stocking up for two years. We live in the countryside and can ride it out. If diesel gets any serious availability cutbacks, the cities are going to explode. People will complain about gas prices and rationing if it happens, but if diesel doesn’t hold out, hungry people are going to start rioting.

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

We’ll eat the weak and infirm.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to Jojo

Too much fat on ‘em. Only good for candles and soap.

Bombillo

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Is it completely inconceivable to consider an e-car? What is up with all these forward thinkers on these boards?

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to Bombillo

there are 287 million cars in the US. Of that 5.3 million are electric or 1.8 percent. And Texas is already breaking records for electricity use and it’s not even summer.

link to kxan.com

Can you hear the howls? I can….

Fish1

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Ramp up the electrical grid. It’s a soluble engineering problem. If Biden would announce a Manhattan Project style assault on this just the threat would collapse oil prices.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Fish1

Who needs to “ramp up the electrical grid?” Do you actually know anything about this subject?

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Ar eyou back Eddie? [lol]

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

An article on EV transportation to conider from about a year ago.

——–

It’s Time to Unplug the Hype Over Electric Vehicles

By Robert Bryce

July 11, 2021

For more than a century, the promise of electric vehicles (EVs) has been parked just beyond the nearest traffic light. In 1901, the Los Angeles Times declared “The electric automobile will quickly and easily take precedence over all other” types of motor vehicles. “If the claims which Mr. Edison makes for his new battery be not overstated, there is not much doubt that it will make a fortune for somebody.”

In 1911, The New York Times declared that the EV “has long been recognized as the ideal solution” because it “is cleaner and quieter” and “much more economical.” And yet today, 110 years after EVs were dubbed the Next Big Thing, they account for just 2% of new car sales in the U.S.

Yes, EVs are cool. And yes, sales of Teslas and other all-electric cars are rising at a fast clip. But despite lots of government push, there still isn’t enough consumer pull. Indeed, the history of the electric car is a century of failure tailgating failure.

Consider California. In 1990, state regulators mandated 10% of the cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles by 2003. The state now offers up to $7,000 in rebates to EV buyers. In addition, EV drivers can use California’s HOV lanes even if they have only one person in their car. Despite these incentives, only about 6% of the cars in California today have an electric plug.

Federal policymakers are ignoring California’s failure to jump-start widespread EV adoption. Earlier this month, the House of Representatives passed an infrastructure bill that included $36.6 billion in funding for EV charging networks and electrification of transportation.

….

———

Robert Bryce is a research fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity and the author, most recently, of A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations.

link to realclearenergy.org

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

1 in 5 electric vehicle owners in California switched back to gas because charging their cars is a hassle, new research shows

Dominick Reuter

April 30, 2021

– Roughly 20% of electric vehicle owners in California replaced their cars with gas ones, a new study shows.

– The main reason drivers made the switch was the inconvenience of charging.

– The findings suggest new challenges facing the growth of the nascent electric vehicle market.

In roughly three minutes, you can fill the gas tank of a Ford Mustang and have enough range to go about 300 miles with its V8 engine.

But for the electric Mustang Mach-E, an hour plugged into a household outlet gave Bloomberg automotive analyst Kevin Tynan just three miles of range.

“Overnight, we’re looking at 36 miles of range,” he told Insider. “Before I gave it back to Ford, because I wanted to give it back full, I drove it to the office and plugged in at the charger we have there.”

Standard home outlets generally put out about 120 volts of power at what electric vehicle aficionados call “Level 1” charging, while the high-powered specialty connections offer 240 volts of power and are known as “Level 2.” By comparison, Tesla’s “Superchargers,” which can fully charge its cars in a little over an hour, offer 480 volts of direct current.

….

link to businessinsider.com

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Bombillo

Are you seriously pitching EVs as the solution to the tripling of motor fuel prices? Really, go buy a Tesla?

Fish1

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

We have to get that needle out of our arm. We are angst’ing about the availability of hay for our horses when we should be talking about robust electricty.

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to Fish1

EV are a short-term solution. Hydrogen is the future of transportation power.

Christoball

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

“go buy a Tesla”

Could that expression become the new “Go jump in a lake” ???

JRM

1 year ago

Reply to Bombillo

Obviously you missed the warning about “BLACK OUTS”…

You can refill your vehicles during a power outage, can’t charge your E CAR if no electricity!!!

mrutkaus

1 year ago

Reply to JRM

How can you refuel your car during a power outage? Gas stations will not have power to run their pumps.

JRM

1 year ago

Reply to mrutkaus

Fuel pump, manual and battery!!!

Gas cans!!

Jojo

1 year ago

Off topic except for those who live in Utah….

———-

As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’

Climate change and rapid population growth are shrinking the lake, creating a bowl of toxic dust that could poison the air around Salt Lake City

June 7, 2022

SALT LAKE CITY — If the Great Salt Lake, which has already shrunk by two-thirds, continues to dry up, here’s what’s in store:

The lake’s flies and brine shrimp would die off — scientists warn it could start as soon as this summer — threatening the 10 million migratory birds that stop at the lake annually to feed on the tiny creatures. Ski conditions at the resorts above Salt Lake City, a vital source of revenue, would deteriorate. The lucrative extraction of magnesium and other minerals from the lake could stop.

Most alarming, the air surrounding Salt Lake City would occasionally turn poisonous. The lake bed contains high levels of arsenic and as more of it becomes exposed, wind storms carry that arsenic into the lungs of nearby residents, who make up three-quarters of Utah’s population.

“We have this potential environmental nuclear bomb that’s going to go off if we don’t take some pretty dramatic action,” said Joel Ferry, a Republican state lawmaker and rancher who lives on the north side of the lake.

….

link to nytimes.com

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Jojo

No mention that the current level is the same at it was in 1963. The New York Times is biased, unfactual, and unreliable.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

What in the above isn’t factual?

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

They lie by omission. The lake is at the low end of the cyclical range, and the NYT didn’t mention that. Nor did they mention human diversions in recent decades. They have a narrative, and that’s all.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

So they said it in a way that didn’t fit with your preconceived notions, and it upset you.

You’re upset a lot, aren’t you?

Jojo

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Can you offer another MSM source that discusses this issue in recent months in what you would call an unbiased manner? If not, then we have to take what we’ve access to.

Of course, any subject has a huge amount of info that doesn’t generally make it into print for any variety of reasons including limited word count allowed or ineffective searching by the author. But is excluding info that YOU consider important an actual example of being biased? Or could it just be sloppy writing? And should it apply to say, all of the NYT or just this author?

JRM

1 year ago

Reply to Jojo

“current level is the same at it was in 1963”

What can you not read???

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Jojo

Also no mention of human diversion from that lake in recent years. Great Salt Lake is the biggest shallow salt lake, but far from the only big one in the West. The others are quite cyclical. Not that the NYT will say so. It doesn’t fit their narrative.

Jojo

1 year ago

If You Must Point Fingers on Inflation, Here’s Where to Point Them

June 11, 2022

By Christopher Leonard – Mr. Leonard is the author of “The Lords of Easy Money” and “Kochland.”

As the midterm elections draw nearer, a central conservative narrative is coming into sharp focus: President Joe Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress have a made a mess of the American economy. Republicans see pure political gold in this year’s slow-motion stock market crash, which seems to be accelerating at the perfect time for a party seeking to regain control of Congress in the fall.

The National Republican Congressional Committee in a tweet last month quipped that the Democratic House agenda includes a “tanking stock market.” Conservatives have been highlighting a video clip from 2020 when then-president Donald Trump warned about a Joe Biden presidency: “If he’s elected, the stock market will crash.” Right wing pundit Sean Hannity’s blog featured the clip under the headline: “TRUMP WAS RIGHT.”

But the narrative pinning blame for the economy’s woes squarely on Democrats’ shoulders elides the true culprit: the Federal Reserve. The financial earthquakes of 2022 trace their origin to underground pressures the Fed has been steadily creating for a over a decade.

….

link to nytimes.com

dtj

1 year ago

Reply to Jojo

“If You Must Point Fingers on Inflation, Here’s Where to Point Them”

It’s the fault of all the money that was created and handed out like candy the past couple years, so the fault lies with the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government. You can print up dollars, but you can’t print food or gasoline.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to dtj

Could be that it’s the fault of the US Congress appropriating money they haven’t collected. The Congress tells the Treasury to borrow from the future by issuing paper. Then the Fed has to buy the paper to keep interest rates from skyrocketing and choking off the economy. (But it’s going to happen anyway.)

Maximus_Minimus

1 year ago

I thought it might be interesting to compare today’s situation to hundred years ago. Opinions about inflation and society from John Maynard Keynes and Lenin:

link to finance.yahoo.com

Felix_Mish

1 year ago

Reply to Maximus_Minimus

Um. Did you just accidentally out yourself as Colin Lodewick or Nick Lichtenberg, writing for Fortune? 🙂

I agree that it’s interesting (and fun and informative) to read what people a long time ago had to say about our contemporary issues. Which is why, nowadays, we live in a paradise. So many old newspapers and magazines to read, even when one must translate old lingo to new.

Christoball

1 year ago

What can’t be paid won’t be paid. People will start to train themselves to use less. People are easily getting as much gasoline as they can pay for but from my calculations there is only about a quart of gasoline per registered vehicle per day that has the pendulum swinging towards higher prices. With just 5 miles per day less driving per registered vehicle fuel prices will drop, and drop fast.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

You can follow gasoline storage levels here to see how your scenario is playing out. As long as storage levels keep dropping, it means that demand continues to exceed supply.

link to eia.gov

Christoball

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

Unless people are storing gas in their own cars gas tanks.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

AAA says the number of motorists calling them because they ran out of gas has exploded. People can’t afford to fill up, so a lot are cutting it too close. In-car “storage” is decreasing.

Christoball

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Just as most accidents happen closest to home, most of the types of people who run out of gas are just a splash or two of fuel away from the cheapest gas station in town. I am sure the poorest of the poor are stressed and the AAA statistics are credible for that demographic. AAA gives 3 free gallons of gas for such an emergency call so it is a wonderful service. With such a small amount of gas use per day per vehicle creating the margin; I still stand by my call that only a small amount of demand destruction will lower prices. Time will tell.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

Gasoline Inventories have been steadily dropping since the beginning of February.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

Americans will cut back on other things, but so far, not on driving.

link to washingtonpost.com

Felix_Mish

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

That 2 year with 5-year-range Gasoline Stocks chart is wonderful! That the range is so narrow in March/April is interesting. Not sure what to make of it.

One thing: The relationship between stock-versus-stock-range and price in these charts seems surprisingly weak.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Felix_Mish

Two likely reasons for the March-April narrowing. Refineries tend to switch over to higher levels of gasoline production in that time period in preparation for summer driving season. And switchover periods tend to coincide with planned maintenance and downtime. Though refineries tended to put off some maintenance during the pandemic to save $. They even let some staff go early in the pandemic and are still trying to hire them all back.

My overall thesis is that as long as inventories are falling that will put upward pressure on prices. But it does not have to be a perfect correlation. It is simply directional.

At this time refineries are running at 94%, which is 4% above their historical average. And inventories are still dropping.

And refineries are subject to accidents, fires, floods, hurricanes etc. Five have permanently closed in the last two years. The following article mentions a 6th refinery set to close next year, that could close earlier if it encounters any trouble.

link to reuters.com

Felix_Mish

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

Makes sense. Bit of a narrowing on the up-for-winter side, too.

Your analysis is both enlightening and discouraging. Discouraging because I realize if I followed you and others in to more “oil” than the two yawners I have had for a long time (Chevron and EGY), I’d want to at least get in to Dunning-Kruger territory before going further. People working in the field will know just as I know the weather outside, that 94% and what it means, for instance. But about all I know about pricing and management of the whole, worldwide energy pipeline is there are 11-teen mechanisms in place to spread the flow both spatially and temporally. So it’s hard to look at these snapshots and not be misled. Sigh.

Yeah. The world has plenty of resources to pick up the jump in gas/etc prices. Heck, Euros have been paying about a million dollars a liter for gas at the pump for a long time and they haven’t starved yet.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Felix_Mish

The good news is that oil, ngas, diesel, and gasoline prices do not have to go up any further for oil and gas stocks to keep gushing cash flow and rewarding investors. $100 oil will do just fine and is probably the “sweet spot” that keeps the economy humming without causing too much inflation.

But the supply/demand imbalance is putting further upward pressure on prices. Which will eventually reduce economic activity and cause enough demand destruction to bring supply and demand back into balance.

In the meantime, one should not be afraid to invest in oil stocks since they are still trading at huge discounts compared to what their fundamentals say.

Or you could just trade them as the current volatility leads to some enticing rips and dips.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

If everyone drove 5 miles a day less, gasoline consumption would drop by about 15%. That will happen in the short term only if there’s a depression.

Casual_Observer2020

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

Job losses will take care of this.

Tony Bennett

1 year ago

Reply to Christoball

“What can’t be paid won’t be paid.”

…

Yes.

Of EVERYTHING that happened last week, do you know what interested me most? The Target warning. And not what was in the statement (which was bad enough), but the fact that it came only 3 weeks after prior warning.

We are in the process of hitting the brick wall. NOW.

The suddenness of slowdown will catch many off guard.

footwedge

1 year ago

Reply to Tony Bennett

That suddeness showed up here in the real estate market. Houses were going, as elesewhere, quickly with numerous offers over asking price. Literally within a couple weeks of the interest rate going to 5% (still historically very low) the showings slowed way down as did offers. One neighbor’s house sold in 6 days about 6 weeks ago. Another neighbor’s house went up for sale two weeks after first one and is still on the market with two price reductions, few showings and no offers. It’s a very nice house reasonably well priced. Very surreal but closer to normal.

PapaDave

1 year ago

We will eventually get some demand destruction. At what price, I do not know. But probably much higher prices will be needed to bring demand down to match supply.

Captain Ahab

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

Rest assured there is already demand destruction (occurring at the margin). Logically, it will hit non-essentials first, and products with lower-priced substitutes, including a shift from brand name to store brand. Plus, there is hoarding in expectation of higher prices.

Maximus_Minimus

1 year ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

There would be easy way to register demand destruction by measuring fuel sales at the pump, but I am not sure if such data is collected.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Maximus_Minimus

You can follow gasoline storage levels here. Along with all sorts of other energy stats.

link to eia.gov

What is clear is that gasoline storage levels continue to drop as we head into the heavy demand of summer. Which tells us that demand keeps exceeding supply each and every week in spite of whatever demand destruction people think is happening.

As long as gasoline inventories keep dropping there will be upside pressure on prices.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

Gasoline demand is quite inelastic. The demand effects are felt elsewhere.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Exactly. It will take much higher prices to put a dent in demand for gasoline. People will give up other things first.

link to washingtonpost.com

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

Many tantrums will happen before behavior changes.

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

Agreed.

JackWebb

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

Especially in November. The Democrats will be crushed.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to JackWebb

Your life appears to be one long tantrum.

FromBrussels

1 year ago

Reply to PapaDave

time to short ‘m , your oil stonks , unless you hope to triple them again the next two years, nothing is predictable though under the present deteriorating financial/social/geopolitical circumstances…..Place your bets anyway, this is more than ever a casino game given the unchartered rapidly changing waters we re sailing ….ALL I personally hope for, is to maintain my (considerable)capital and my physical and mental health in particular, for what s left of my negligible existence in the pathetic yet ruthless valley of tears called LIFE…. although I do recognize I ve had some fun on my way to the inevitable abyss…..

PapaDave

1 year ago

Reply to FromBrussels

Hey! I read that one right to the end. Thank you for not dropping the mostly useless f bombs. I appreciate that. It makes me take you more seriously.

I have no intention of altering my investment scenario yet. Which is to maintain a core position of 50% energy stocks, 25% banks and utilities, and 25% trading position.

The trading position is almost all cash right now, as I sold almost all my tradable energy stocks after the 20% runup in the first week of June. I bought a few back at lower prices on Friday. And I am waiting patiently for a good pullback to buy them all back at lower prices in the next few weeks (or days).

As long as oil, gasoline and distillate inventories continue to fall, I see no good reason to sell my core position of oil stocks.

The companies I own operate at breakeven oil prices of $40 and EV/CF values below 3 at $100 oil. And many of them are committing to return up to 100% of FCF to shareholders now or in the very near future. Many are also now virtually debt free. Why would I sell when it’s just getting good?

Any big sell off is just another opportunity to pick up some great bargains. Its not too late to get in Brussels. Even you can take advantage of this great investment idea. It’s just the second inning (or year) of this 9 inning game.

Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

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