Ironic timing on the mention of Carvana, which is up over 100% so far this year, including nearly 30% today, based on an article that used car prices are remaining firm, but volume is rising, and that bankruptcy is no longer a concern.
Cocoa
1 year ago
The service economy is too expensive. We are in a new era of self-reliance. I just paid $60 for a small salad, 3 piece fish and chip and 2 beers at a pub. That’s patently absurd. The system of wait-staff, cooks, running a restaurant is for the birds. Its so expensive and quality has crashed. With delivery, it’s sort of a step in the right direction BUT AGAIN, the service portion of that business is too much overhead and you get zilch for the money. There is nothing convenient about having no money
KidHorn
1 year ago
What about the company that delivers meals with bar codes? You put the food item in their microware and then scan the card and it cooks. Because pressing 5-3-0-start is way too much work.
ohno
1 year ago
LOL @ Nestle. Maybe they should spend more time figuring how to screw everyone on water resources. Jerks. Serves them right.
I’m a corporate fraud investigator. You wouldn’t believe the hubris of the super-rich
Freya Berry
Tue 24 Jan 2023
FTX’s HQ, we now know, was not your typical one. CEO Sam Bankman-Fried ran his business from a $40m Bahamian penthouse named the Orchid, complete with Venetian plaster walls and a grand piano. The lot was nestled beside a championship golf course and a mega-yacht marina. Since Amazon doesn’t deliver to the Bahamas, private jets did the job instead.
It wasn’t your typical corporate HQ – but then, FTX is not your typical corporation. It’s bankrupt, dragged down by its own financial abuses, with its chief executive facing prison. Yet while FTX has made headlines, its tale is not as unusual as you might think.
I work in corporate investigation, and it’s my job to spot fraud and corruption. Sometimes it’s as subtle as manipulating your free cash flow. Sometimes it’s as shameless as photoshopping your bank statements.
There is something unique to our era that encourages the charlatan
Late to comment on this, but I believed early on that COVID was a cover for a financial system bailout. In March 2020 the press reported that $5 trillion of support was being provided to “the markets”. No details on what kind of support and the story has been scrubbed from the internet.
8dots
1 year ago
Shi, from Mao’s caves to 400 hundred millions middle class, no war with Russia, no war with US.
You can speak in real language! Shi imitated the worst aspects but it is true that certain ones do admire the Chinese social credit system even if that system failed to control as much as the Chinese government wished.
El_Tedo
1 year ago
Blue Apron looks like a interesting short-squeeze candidate to me.
A Dose of Reality 5
1 year ago
Lest we forget history repeats itself. The latest doxxed elite. I would want none of my documents stored electronically. I am surprised going to old fashioned paper and ink isnt back in vogue.
The inflation rate is down, but the risk of default is rising. The dbl McC will not imitate Gingrich policies. // A trade deal might have happened : delay 31 US tanks in exchange for 1Y delay of Iranian solid state missiles.
The rabbit has escaped, but the wolf is hungry. Xi will imitate Mao’s policies. // An exchange might have happened: a pooh gummy bear for an apartment.
A Dose of Reality 5
1 year ago
Good article on wealth in the past. I had hoped they would have expounded on the current labor state and correlated it with COVID and retiring baby boomers here in the US. link to bigthink.com
One must not forget the Panama papers. A lot of wealth has been removed from tranparency and concentrated in the hands of the few. That money must be cleaned and laundered usong companies and competative entities that have unlimited funds can take out many normally capitalized corporations. Think chinese government subsidies for their companies to undercut others to become the dominant market player.
vanderlyn
1 year ago
creative destruction. the plague really will have a decade affect for work and leisure. from offices to walking to eat in a restaurant, just for fun. there is no discernable men with no work. the restaurants are packed. it’s a post ww2 / plague war boom. NOT to mention the 800 lb gorilla in the room. the governments of the world borrowed and printed 25 years of currency and dropped it into accounts from busboys to big business to state governments. it ain’t a recession mish. it’s the opposite. please keep up the analysis though, i do learn from your blog. especially the r/e stuff.
prumbly
1 year ago
Never fear, Fauci’s labs will deliver something new soon!
Hey, as long as Bezo, Walmart and other big box big political donors are doing fine then all is well – until the final collapse!
Doug78
1 year ago
Covid wasn’t a Zeitenwende but just speedbump on the road. Like the 1918 Flu Epidemic as soon as it is over people go back to living again.
Jojo
1 year ago
With the uptick in remote work from home, people may actually WANT to go shopping for themselves, just to get out of the house that they work, sleep and exercise in every day!
Just read that Amazon is eliminating free Whole Foods delivery to Prime members for orders less than $150 cove the end of Feb. Given WF prices, $150 should be hard to achieve but still…
Amazon long ago eliminated free shipping on orders of under $25 for non-Prime customers. You can still get free shipping on cheap items, so long as you clump several together to get over $25. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that go to $50.
shamrock
1 year ago
Some of these businesses I never understood anyway. How many fitness fads do we need to see come and go before we realize they all go bankrupt? Who wants to buy a used car sight unseen? Why pay double the grocery store price for a box of ingredients and a fancy recipe card? Or buy clothes that you haven’t tried on? I do like my meal delivery service though.
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
“Buyk declared bankruptcy. In June, Jokr ended its operations in the U.S. And in December, embattled delivery startup Gorillas sold itself to larger and more successful rival Getir.”
Just imagine if one of them burned up the market. We would do some jokring, or getiring.
Domain name squatting drives demand for made up words.
PapaDave
1 year ago
Demographics: a very important topic. Virtually all developed countries, including China, have aging populations without enough young working age folks to support the economy and the retired. Another reason for slower growth in the future.
Companies declaring bankruptcy; with slower growth and higher inflation the bottom 60% of the population will continue to focus on needs vs wants. If you are an investor, you need to focus on companies that meet the consumer’s basic needs; food, shelter, energy.
I had supported privitazation of social security back in the early 2000s. The demographic tsunami was visible then to those that chose to look up at the horizon.
Yes. Demographics are working against the viability of SS. Even if SS was reformed today, it is so far in the hole (no real investments other than govt iou’s) that it’s benefits are going to have to be chipped away at in the future. Although we will all get “something” back, it is best to assume that we will get nothing back and plan accordingly.
My plan is to get wealthy enough that I simply don’t care about SS.
SS will be chipped away in many ways, including your suggestions. They will definitely cut benefits; probably based on a means test at first; starting with the wealthiest; and then slowly reducing the level of income that the means test is based on. Also, they can repeatedly change the starting age for receipt of benefits (such as what France is attempting). And they can reduce inflation protection, bit by bit. They can fiddle with the formulas. And so on. Chipped away by many different cuts. You will still get something; but it will be less than what you expected.
And the government doesn’t need or want to confiscate your guns. That’s just the gun lobby whipping up fear to get you to buy even more guns. But it doesn’t matter how many guns you own. It won’t stop SS from reducing the amount they deposit in your bank account. What are you going to do? Go shoot a bank teller or someone in a SS office? Like that would change anything.
Sunriver
1 year ago
Demographics may be the main economic story of this decade (has been in Japan for some time).As Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid start to go bankrupt in a non-saving economy (unlike Japan), I fully expect QE infinity will be the response of the FED.Again, I’d hate to be a politician elected in 2028.Look forward to you blog on demographics tomorrow Mish.No way out.
George Friedman said much the same thing about the poor sap who will be elected in 2028. It was in his book “The calm before the storm.” Either it will fall apart on his/her watch, or he/she will have to attempt to reassemble the mess that already collapsed.
8dots
1 year ago
The market speed : for six weeks the Dow and SPX tried to rise > Dec 13 high, but failed. NDX made it and closed above.
Mish
1 year ago
Ugh – I spent 6 hours today on a post on Demographics that I just scrapped because the data is out of date.
Even the Census department links to the flawed data.
Found another source and will try again tomorrow.
For now, this post will have to do for discussion.
U.S. is in a relatively good position (but not out of the woods), birth rates in Europe and east Asia have collapsed to lowest even seen in history, only late stage Roman elites have seen a similar birth rate collapse. It will affect wars too, U.S. military is having a very hard time recruiting, and both Russia and Ukraine are seeing men well into their 40s and 50s on the front.
I found the same thing searching year by year death rates and came to the conclusion that transparency is not the goal. You think with all the trillions spent during covid we would have accurate data on previous year death rates in relationship to current situation to asses the so called crises.
SS will be chipped away in many ways, including your suggestions. They will definitely cut benefits; probably based on a means test at first; starting with the wealthiest; and then slowly reducing the level of income that the means test is based on. Also, they can repeatedly change the starting age for receipt of benefits (such as what France is attempting). And they can reduce inflation protection, bit by bit. They can fiddle with the formulas. And so on. Chipped away by many different cuts. You will still get something; but it will be less than what you expected.
Demographics may be the main economic story of this decade (has been in Japan for some time).As Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid start to go bankrupt in a non-saving economy (unlike Japan), I fully expect QE infinity will be the response of the FED.Again, I’d hate to be a politician elected in 2028.Look forward to you blog on demographics tomorrow Mish.No way out.