Quits Levels and Rates
Quits Levels and Rates are part of the BLS’ monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover report.
Quits are the number of quits during the entire month. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.
The quits rates are at the highest level in the history of the series.
People are Just Quitting
The WSJ article Forget Going Back to the Office—People Are Just Quitting Instead caught my eye.
In April, the share of U.S. workers leaving jobs was 2.7%, according to the Labor Department, a jump from 1.6% a year earlier to the highest level since at least 2000.
The shift by Americans into new jobs and careers is prompting employers to raise wages and offer promotions to keep hold of talent. The appetite for change by employees indicates many professionals are feeling confident about jumping ship for better prospects, despite elevated unemployment rates.
While a high quit rate stings employers with greater turnover costs, and in some cases, business disruptions, labor economists say churn typically signals a healthy labor market as individuals gravitate to jobs more suited to their skills, interests and personal lives.
A Look at Raw Numbers
Quits Level Details
Interestingly, quits in leisure and hospitality jobs (the vast majority are food service and accommodation), are below levels in 2019.
Synopsis
- Supply chain shortages and Covid-disruptions put upward pressure on costs which in turn put upward pressure on wages.
- Retirement of skilled baby boomers put additional upward pressure on wages.
- Increased work-at-home turned what was once local or regional demand into competitive national demand for workers.
- Unemployment benefits that payed people more to not work than to work kept millions at home happily not working.
- Rising wages and increasing demand for labor with companies competing nationally for work-at-home labor is the final piece of the puzzle.
Not Just Age 60+
Not just those aged 60+
There are a lot of people 55+ eligible to retire with full pensions after 20 years of service.
Thanks to the stock market, there is a big incentive to double dip – retire from one job and take another.
Police, fire, and teachers are in that group. https://t.co/vGDTQmkEiG
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) June 13, 2021
Despite Wage Increases, Real Hourly Pay Is Losing to Inflation
In spite of those five points (an added Tweet making 6) , please note that Real Hourly Pay Is Losing to Inflation
Related Articles
- Huge Upward Wage Pressures for Both Skilled and Unskilled Labor
- Where Are the Job Openings and How Much Does One Make Per Hour?
- Year-Over-Year CPI Jumps 5%, That’s the Most Since August 2008
- How the Fed’s Inflation Policies Benefited the Top 1% In Pictures Part 1
- How the Fed’s Inflation Policies Benefited the Top 1% In Pictures Part 2
Correction
Retirements are happening, but so far it is primarily in age group 65+ not 60-64 as incorrectly noted and now removed.
For an update to this article, please see my June 28th post Fed Chair Jerome Powell is Concerned Over the Rapid Rise in Retirements
Mish
Ifzal said it’s still hard to find work in his field and that landing a lower-paid job in an industry unrelated to his experience won’t help him in the long run. He petitioned to ask Texas Governor Greg Abbott to reconsider his decision to end unemployment benefits, which has received more than 9,000 signatures and comments. Many are from people who can’t find jobs in their fields, including the oil and gas industry, which lost more than 100,000 jobs in the pandemic.
“I have worked 11, 12 years in my field and it doesn’t make any sense to find a job at McDonald’s,” Ifzal said.
Others noted that while restaurants are hiring, other industries remain weakened because of the impact of COVID-19. Jihan Johnston, a single mom in Atlanta, has a masters degree in education, but the pandemic has hit her sector hard. Last year, jobs in public K-12 education fell by 8%. The impact might be even worse than suggested since many schools have held off on hiring new staff amid remote schooling and other changes, the Brookings Institution link to brookings.edu.
“I’ve applied to over 2,000 jobs in the last year. I haven’t heard back from anybody,” said Johnston, who has a 12-year-old son. “I had to move out of my house. I’m living with my mother. I have 88 cents in my bank account.”
Johnston said she applied for work in the education, technology and customer service fields, but believes her resume may make her overqualified for some jobs. She also worries about the impact of bias, given that she is Black, and the fact that she’s been out of work since before the pandemic.
“That is one of my biggest fears, that they will say ‘What happened to this gap?’” she said.
Johnston’s most immediate concern is the early end of jobless benefits in Georgia on June 27. She had planned on getting two additional months of aid — federal funding for jobless aid programs expires on September 4 — to help her move to California, where she is due to begin a doctoral program in informatics at the University of California, Irvine.
Now Johnston is worried she might not have the money to make the move and is currently looking for summer jobs to find the money. She added that she’s looking into whether she can transfer her unemployment benefits to California.
“California is one of those states that hasn’t canceled unemployment,” she said. Having more weeks of aid “would be a huge relief.”