The Triffin paradox makes having the reserve currency as much a curse as a blessing; I don’t think China wants it, they just want to level the playing field and avoid being hostage to the U.S. dominated SWIFT system.. Expect to see many international trades settled in XRP in the coming years. Interledger can replace SWIFT without any nation’s approval and be vastly more efficient.
brainy
6 years ago
the math (to be required to run deficits) is simple:
* if every producer SELLs in USD – every customer must BUY in USD.
* so outside the US – there is a strong req – to have USDs for oil-purchases.
blacklisted
6 years ago
Alternatives are rightly being DEVELOPED because the current debt-based dollar system is coming to an end. Anyone not planning for a transition is an idiot. It is not the petroyuan that will kill the dollar reserve, it is the explosion of dollar-based debt around the world, and the exposure of massive govt fraud and corruption that will implode confidence. What happens to foreign balance sheets when interest rates and the dollar rise?
Since govt’s NEVER proactively change, the rising dollar and rates will cause a sovereign debt default contagion that forces an emergency G20 meeting. An outcome will be a new global reserve system.
It’s important to understand how past empires collapsed, and who is preparing for the coming collapse. In the coming decade, when the current system implodes, China can and will be ready to let it’s currency float, expand its bond market, and enforce property rights and the rule of law. The likely reserve will be SDR-like, where the yuan has a closer weighting with the dollar, pound, yen, and whatever the euro becomes.
The big unknown is how totalitarian will govt’s become as they try to save their perks and power, and what citizenry will stand up to their govt’s oppression. Needless to say, we will live through interesting times (if we are lucky or prepared).
Roger_Ramjet
6 years ago
I don’t think that the purpose is to dethrone the US dollar, but rather to create alternatives to existing global trade architecture that the US controls. Other countries, including China, Russia and Iran understand that if they don’t play by the rules imposed by the US, they will be restricted from global trade by being barred on global exchanges and international banking systems (SWIFT). I think that is why these alternative systems are being developed.
Roger_Ramjet
6 years ago
03
hmk
6 years ago
Didn’t the US run a trade surplus in the 50-60s . They were the reserve currency then also. ?
SherWat
6 years ago
Agree because of 1, 2 and 3. Not so sure about 4 and 5 because didn’t the UK run surpluses when the GBP was global reserve currency?
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The Triffin paradox makes having the reserve currency as much a curse as a blessing; I don’t think China wants it, they just want to level the playing field and avoid being hostage to the U.S. dominated SWIFT system.. Expect to see many international trades settled in XRP in the coming years. Interledger can replace SWIFT without any nation’s approval and be vastly more efficient.
the math (to be required to run deficits) is simple:
* if every producer SELLs in USD – every customer must BUY in USD.
* so outside the US – there is a strong req – to have USDs for oil-purchases.
Alternatives are rightly being DEVELOPED because the current debt-based dollar system is coming to an end. Anyone not planning for a transition is an idiot. It is not the petroyuan that will kill the dollar reserve, it is the explosion of dollar-based debt around the world, and the exposure of massive govt fraud and corruption that will implode confidence. What happens to foreign balance sheets when interest rates and the dollar rise?
Since govt’s NEVER proactively change, the rising dollar and rates will cause a sovereign debt default contagion that forces an emergency G20 meeting. An outcome will be a new global reserve system.
It’s important to understand how past empires collapsed, and who is preparing for the coming collapse. In the coming decade, when the current system implodes, China can and will be ready to let it’s currency float, expand its bond market, and enforce property rights and the rule of law. The likely reserve will be SDR-like, where the yuan has a closer weighting with the dollar, pound, yen, and whatever the euro becomes.
The big unknown is how totalitarian will govt’s become as they try to save their perks and power, and what citizenry will stand up to their govt’s oppression. Needless to say, we will live through interesting times (if we are lucky or prepared).
I don’t think that the purpose is to dethrone the US dollar, but rather to create alternatives to existing global trade architecture that the US controls. Other countries, including China, Russia and Iran understand that if they don’t play by the rules imposed by the US, they will be restricted from global trade by being barred on global exchanges and international banking systems (SWIFT). I think that is why these alternative systems are being developed.
03
Didn’t the US run a trade surplus in the 50-60s . They were the reserve currency then also. ?
Agree because of 1, 2 and 3. Not so sure about 4 and 5 because didn’t the UK run surpluses when the GBP was global reserve currency?