I have a blast following German polls and pronouncements, especially from the Greens.

First, let's take a look at AfD.

AfD Cheers September 21

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Greens Cheer September 29

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AfD Cheers October 1

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I have been watching this pattern for many weeks and no one seems to have caught on. This next image will explain.

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AfD Spread Over Greens - Last 6 INSA Polls

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 4.5
  • 3.5
  • 1.0
  • 2.5

Greens Spread Over AfD - Last 6 Forza Polls

  • 2.5
  • 1.5
  • 3.0
  • 1.5
  • 2.5
  • 1.5

​Now that the INSA poll is out of the way, it's pretty clear the Greens turn to cheer will soon happen again.

Demise of the Grand Coalition

Meanwhile note that support for the Union (CDU/CSU) "Grand Coalition" is slowly sinking into the sunset.

Support is at a new record low in the last two polls

The lead image shows the overall pattern.

Coalition Outlook

If there was an election today, the Grand Coalition would not have a chance according to any recent poll.

Even the Jamaica coalition, named after colors in the Jamaica flag (black, yellow, green), might not gather, or barely gather, the required 50%.

INSA has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26 + 10 + 14.5 = 50.5.

Civey has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26.7 + 8.6 + 15.7 = 51.0.

How long could such a three-way coalition last, assuming it got off the ground in the first place?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Crunch Time Germany: AfD Rises Above SPD in Polls, Grand Coalition Not

Support for AfD passed SPD in the latest German poll. Support for the "Grand Coalition" is under 50%.

Tortured Death of Germany's Grand Coalition

Germany's Grand Coalition has been on life support for years. Will SPD finally put the coalition out of its misery?

Radicalization of Germany: Political Center Melts

The demise of Merkel's "Grand Coalition" is now so complete no one can possibly deny what's happened.

Exit Polls Show CSU Suffers Worst Bavaria Result Since 1950, Greens and AfD Gain

CSU came in first place in Bavaria but it was a humiliating, worst-showing win since 1950. Greens came in 2nd. AfD 3rd.

Increasing Chance CSU Aligns With AfD in Bavaria, Completely Splitting Germany

The rhetoric and actions in Bavaria are interesting. CSU and AfD share much common ground.

AfD In 3rd Place in German Election Polls: Unhappy Political Marriages

German federal elections are Sunday, September 24. The most likely outcome of the election is another “Grand Coalition” but it will be a much-weakened coalition.

Rise of the Greens = Deindustrialization of Germany

The Green Party is on the rise in Europe. Ramifications are immense, starting with the deindustrialization of Germany.

Hurricane Over Germany: Coalition on Verge of Collapse, New Elections?

The Jamaica coalition in Germany between the Greens, CDU/CSU, and FDP is on the verge of collapse. If it does collapse, Merkel may try to form a minority government or there may be new elections. Jamaica refers to the colors of the party flags, the same colors of the Jamaica national flag.

AfD Tied or Ahead of SPD in Latest Two Polls

AfD has surpassed or tied SPD in the latest Germany polls. Support for the CDU/CSU union is also trending lower.