Producer Prices Decline For the First Time Since the Pandemic Due to Energy

Producer Prices from BLS, chart by Mish

Producer Price Index Details

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. This decline followed advances of 1.0 percent in June and 0.8 percent in May. 
  • On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July. In July, the decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a 1.8-percent decline in prices for final demand goods. 
  • The index for final demand services advanced 0.1 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in July following a 0.3-percent rise in June. 
  • For the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 5.8 percent.  

PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Four Ways 

PPI Final Demand, Intermediate Demand, CPI YOY 

Final Demand Goods

  • The index for final demand goods fell 1.8 percent in July, the largest decline since moving down 2.7 percent in April 2020. 
  • The July decrease can be traced to a 9.0-percent drop in prices for final demand energy. 
  • The indexes for final demand foods and for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 1.0 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. 
  • Eighty percent of the July decline in the index for final demand goods is attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 16.7 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel, gas fuels, oilseeds, iron and steel scrap, and grains also moved lower. 
  • Prices for chicken eggs jumped 43.1 percent. The indexes for industrial chemicals and for electric power also increased.

Final Demand Services

  • The index for final demand services inched up 0.1 percent in July, the third consecutive increase. 
  • Leading the July advance, margins for final demand trade services rose 0.3 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 0.4 percent. 

Processed Goods for Intermediate Demand

  • The index for processed goods for intermediate demand fell 2.3 percent in July, the largest decline since moving down 3.4 percent in April 2020. 
  • Most of the broad-based decrease in July can be traced to a 9.0-percent drop in prices for processed energy goods. 
  • The indexes for processed materials less foods and energy and for processed foods and feeds also moved lower, 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 17.4 percent. 
  • Product detail: Over half of the July decline in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand is attributable to a 16.6-percent decrease in prices for diesel fuel. The indexes for gasoline; utility natural gas; cold rolled steel sheet and strip; liquefied petroleum gas; and shortening, cooking oil, and margarine also fell. Conversely, prices for industrial chemicals advanced 1.9 percent. 
  • The indexes for commercial electric power and for beef and veal  moved higher. 

Unprocessed Goods for Intermediate Demand

  • Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 12.4 percent, the largest decline since moving down 14.4 percent in April 2020. 
  • Most of the broad-based decrease in July is attributable to a 21.2-percent drop in the index for unprocessed energy goods. 
  • Prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy and for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs also declined, 6.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.
  • For the 12 months ended in July, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand increased 27.5 percent. 
  • Product detail: Over half of the July decrease in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to a 27.6-percent decline in the index for natural gas. Prices for crude petroleum, grains, iron and steel scrap, oilseeds, and nonferrous metal ores also fell. 
  • In contrast, the index for slaughter hogs jumped 23.2 percent. Prices for coal and for recyclable paper also rose.  

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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david halte
david halte
1 year ago
Fuel prices may have decreased, but the increased cost of natural gas recently hit residential energy bills. The rise was large, but overall unnoticeable, because it’s summer. Once cold weather arrives, it will bring attention.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
wishful thinking by folks who think staglation is not gonna be with us for many years. the amount of money conjured up with the zero cursor on computers to bail out the plague affect on top of the great panic of 2007…………….and endless wars………….is staggering.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
And here come the lawsuits in crypto. This is the kinda stuff that capital markets wrought.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
I wonder how many will ultimately be successful.
Unless there is very obvious fraud (ie a ponzi) I expect most to be tossed out in the same manner that lawsuits against penny stocks are tossed unless there is obvious fraud.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Wow that one was one nasty terrible recession guys. I kept saying a year ago the Fed had room to raise rates and still maintain they do. My employer has a hiring freeze but is paying out 80% of the full bonus for 1H2022 because business “only” slowed by 20%. The economy can’t be overheated and going into the recession at the same time. This isn’t how recessions work. The capital markets got overheated and this caused real estate and derivatives on all commodities to get overheated. The situation on main street is about the same as it was before Covid (around 1-2% growth prior to Q4/2019 when it actually went QoQ negative). Growth is ok and normal for a developed/non-emergent nation. I see zero signs of a recession in my metro area.
JRM
JRM
1 year ago
This is what you get when the FEDS and Politics plays with the numbers!!!
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
Reply to  JRM
that’s been going on for decades and decades. nothing new. most of the rubes missed how raygun really changed the way stuff was counted. he was the greatest con man of his time.
JRM
JRM
1 year ago
I’ m confused the FEDS took fuel and food out of the Inflation index, but all the experts still run to fuel and food prices drops as proof inflation is going down, when “OFFICIALLY” its not supposed to be included!!!!
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Excellent analysis Mish. This post begs a question, if the PPI drop was largely led by a drop in energy/fuel, what happens when energy/fuel goes back up? Arent many commentators here gleefully commenting on how Europe will freeze and have to spend $$$$$ on heating this winter. It’s a global market so high prices in europe will translate to higher prices in the US too. If that’s the case then the scenario I predict is CPI/PPI will look low over the next month or two up until winter hits.
Will the problem be exacerbated if China ends lock downs and goes back into full consumption and production? Inquiring minds want to know.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
If a country is in recession, there is less income for energy. The result, people will freeze. Energy will be rationed. Industry will slow even more… Cobweb theory in demand and supply actually works, sometimes.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
And we shall see…
FooFooFed
FooFooFed
1 year ago
From Jeff Snider……While everyone was focused on the US CPI, the more accurate and useful price information was released by the Chinese.

Producer prices in China have repeatedly matched global economic conditions, much better than US CPI.

PPI *down big* in July.

Hard Landing coming up!
also from Jeff….Stocks are smiling at Fed “pivot” as if July the 1st stop on the way to the “soft landing”. Bonds are throwing up all over that view. There’s nothing like a soft landing in this inversion, and stocks are going to find that rate hikes weren’t the problem.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
Thats what makes a market: different opinions. So what are you investing in, given this hard landing scenario? I am always looking for good investment ideas. And feel free to expand on why a hard landing is coming.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
I think you have China confused for Spain.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
Snider: “Like the CPI, core PPI reveals that the downside of “inflation” didn’t just show up out of the blue in July. It’s been happening since March, like everything else. Rolling over is a process and it has been obscured by focus on gasoline and energy”
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Inflation is peaking. It should drop to 3-5% next year. Most of that increase will be food, water, shelter and energy. Upward pressure remains on energy going forward. The temporary drop in energy prices is due to financial markets responding to a small amount of demand destruction, continued SPR releases, and continued lockdowns in China.
SPR releases end in Oct. Replenishment begins in 2023. China should soon be stocking up for winter and the end of covid lockdowns. Europe supposedly begins oil Sanctions on Russia in December. OPEC is out of spare capacity. And no one seems to be spending much on capex going forward
RonJ
RonJ
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
“And no one seems to be spending much on capex going forward”
Well, Biden wants to put them all out of business, so why should they bother?
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  RonJ
Biden is a rounding error in the big scheme of things. Reduced capex by oil companies has been the case worldwide for the last decade, and hit its lowest point in the Trump years. It has actually increased from extremely low levels to moderately low levels under Biden, though I wouldn’t give him credit for it.
You, on the other hand, give him too much credit.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
There can be a big difference in the information contained in policy and what is gleaned from other sources. Biden has made his position on CO2-producing energy quite clear, and now the world pays the price for advanced dementia. Anyone in the oil industry (and auto industry) will confirm that. The only reason why Biden is ‘appearing to reverse’ that position is political expediency. Europe will be Hell-frozen-over this winter thanks to Biden’s tariffs.
The final years of Obama decreased cap-ex. Trump increased them…
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
You are incredibly unaware. You never get it. I don’t give a flying f*ck about your politics, your Trump worship, or your Biden hatred. I don’t care if you believe everything Trump says or how far you stick your head up his fat a**.
I only care about what is actually happening in the world and how I can use that knowledge to invest in the opportunities that appear.
Oil companies have been decreasing capex for quite some time. That has led to some sweet investment opportunities. And it has almost nothing to do with Trump or Biden.
If you want to talk investments, I’m all ears. If you want to kiss Trump’s a** , I’m not interested in joining you.
Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“Europe will be Hell-frozen-over this winter thanks to Biden’s tariffs.”
Nuland (F the Eu) Mission accomplished. Grab the popcorn and watch Europe. Winter is coming and it isnt going to be pretty for the Europeans and then theres next winter and next winter, etc.
The Bidens did ok in Ukraine. Hunter made millions from Burisma. Maybe Joe is actually being honest when he says he doesnt know anything about Hunters dealings because of advance dementia? Joe Biden was so upset about Ukraine dealings that he even had a Ukrainian prosecutor fired. Needless to say the Ukrainian oligarch behind Burisma and funding Zelensky was Kolomoisky.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Biden … Beelzebub. Both begin with B. Coincidence? I think not!
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
JRM
JRM
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Obviously you have not heard there is a new virus spreading in China!!!
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  JRM
Why and how will that prevent them from stocking up on oil and gas for winter?

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