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My how things change.

  • A month ago there was allegedly a 10%% chance of a rate cut tomorrow with an additional 22.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
  • Last week there was a 92.3% chance of a single cut.
  • Yesterday there was a 62.3% chance of a cut.
  • Today there is only a 47.3% chance of a cut.

Tomorrow we see.

Questions of the Day

  1. Rate Cut on the 18th?
  2. Did this sudden change amplify today's liquidity crisis?
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Rate Cut Question

Liquidity Crisis Question

For discussion, please see US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency $75 Billion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock