My how things change.

  • A month ago there was allegedly a 10%% chance of a rate cut tomorrow with an additional 22.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
  • Last week there was a 92.3% chance of a single cut.
  • Yesterday there was a 62.3% chance of a cut.
  • Today there is only a 47.3% chance of a cut.

Tomorrow we see.

Questions of the Day

  1. Rate Cut on the 18th?
  2. Did this sudden change amplify today's liquidity crisis?

Rate Cut Question

Liquidity Crisis Question

For discussion, please see US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency $75 Billion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Nearly 50% Odds of "At Least" 3 Rate Cuts by December

In the last month the odds of interest rates cuts by the Fed have soared.

July Rate Cut Odds Still 100%

Despite today's jobs report, Implied July rate cuts odds are still 100% but a second cut is now priced out.

Rate Cut Odds Shrink Dramatically Following FOMC Decision

The odds the Fed Funds Rate would be 1.75% to 2.00% fell from 54.2% yesterday to 0% today.

Currency Wars: Greek 10-Year Bond Yield Dips Below 2% as Bets on Rate Cuts Rise

For the first time ever, Greek 10-year bond yields dipped below 2%.

Stocks Dive, Rate Cut Odds Soar, Trump Blames Impeachment

Global equities are under pressure amid and rate cut odds rising amid weakening economic data. Trump blames impeachment.

Half-Point Rate Cut Odds Explode to 71% - So What? It Doesn't Matter!

The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut on July 31 topped the 70% mark in the wake of a dive in leading indicators.

2019 Rate "Cuts" in Play

The market still expects the Fed to hike on Wednesday, but even the 3-Month yield is lower. Let's look ahead to 2019.

Recession Watch: Panic Fed Rate Cuts Coming Up

Fed fund futures say a rate cut cycle has started. The Fed disagrees but will soon come to its senses.

Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting.