Rate Hike Expectations Dive On Housing Data
Today's housing report was a disaster vs expectations.
Numbers +- reflect the rate hike odds movement today alone.
Let's compare to a snapshot I took eleven days ago.
Rate Hike Expectations May 12
Eleven days ago, traders were pricing in chances of five or even six hikes. The consensus estimate was a 47.4% chance of at least 4 hikes this year.
Compare the preceding chart to today's chart. There is now a small chance of no more hikes this year.
What Happened?
Reality: April New Home Sales Slide 1.5%, March Revised Sharply Lower.
I rather doubt Trump's trade shenanigans helped any.
One can also ponder this.
By the way, Rosie might need to rethink inflation as well.
Inflation watchers please note: the yield on the 10-year note is back below 3.0%.
Let's not confuse late stage inflation with a massive breakout of stagflation. For discussion, please see Reflections on Late-Stage Inflation.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock