The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Weighs Wait-and-See Approach on Future Rate Increases.

Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see approach after a likely interest-rate increase at their meeting in December, which could slow down the pace of rate increases next year.

Sucker Rally

The Dow industrials tumbled were down over 700 points before sharply rallying in the final hour to close down about 79 points.

Assuming one can attribute a stock market move to silliness as opposed to randomness, that WSJ report fits the bill.

Technically speaking, stocks bounced off strong support.

Dow Support Levels Daily Chart

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There are support levels every couple thousand points below but this is the major one.

Dow Support Levels Weekly Chart

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I highly doubt this rally holds. Each time a level is tested, conviction and buyers give away. Quintuple bottom? Really?

December 2019 Rate Hike Odds

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Note that the above chart displays rate hike odds for a year from now, not the December 19, 2018 meeting coming up. I am assuming a hike on December 19.

Will the Fed Hike in 2019?

Maybe Baby

Recession Coming

Full inversion? Maybe baby, but I doubt it. A recession is on the way.

If the Fed does not hike in 2019, I doubt the 3-month to 30-year yield curve inversion that people seem to expect will occur.

The Fed is Slowly Hiking Into a Recession and we are nearly there.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

2019 Rate "Cuts" in Play

The market still expects the Fed to hike on Wednesday, but even the 3-Month yield is lower. Let's look ahead to 2019.

Rate Hike Expectations Dive On Housing Data

Rate hike expectations took a big dive today on poor housing data and/or Trump tariffs flip-flops.

Interesting Rate Hike Odds: March favors Hikes, December Favors Cuts

Fed fund futures show a hike in March is more likely than a cut. In December, the opposite is true.

Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting.

Stocks Dive, Rate Cut Odds Soar, Trump Blames Impeachment

Global equities are under pressure amid and rate cut odds rising amid weakening economic data. Trump blames impeachment.

Vanishing Vix Musical Tribute

Nothing seems to phase the stock market for more than a day or two.

Rate Hike Odds Rise Again: Fed Concerned About Corporate Leverage

Despite anemic GDP forecasts for third and fourth quarter, the Fed appears to have convinced the market that it will finally hike rates in December.

Bubbles B. Goode: Musical Tribute to the Fed

A few weeks ago I created a video anticipating the moment Powell would embrace rate-cutting bubbles as standard policy.

Rate Hike Odds 99 Percent for June: Then What? Fed Hike Cycle Over?

CME Fedwatch places a 99.6% possibility of a quarter point rate hike on June 14.