Reduced imports contributed 5.2 percentage points to GDP.
The BEA’s Advance Estimate of Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 was 3.0 percent up from -0.5 percent.
Advance Estimates
- GDP: 3.0 percent
- Real Final Sales: 6.3 percent
- Real Final Domestic Sales: 1.1 percent
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 1.2 percent
Percentage Point Contributions to GDP
Contribution Details
- PCE Services: 0.53
- PCE Goods: 0.46
- Government: 0.08
- Residential Investment: -0.19
- Nonresidential Investment: 0.27
- Change in Private Inventories (CIPI): -3.17
- Exports: -0.19
- Imports: 5.18
Imports added 5.18 percentage points to the GDP calculation (not to GDP). Imports never add or subtract from GDP because they are not domestic.
However, the BEA counts all sales as domestic sales so it must then subtract imports from its calculation.
Trade data has seriously distorted GDP in ways never seen before.
If one looks at Real Final Private Domestic Sales we have had two muddle-through quarters at 1.9 percent in Q1 and 1.2 percent in Q2.
Last quarter was much better than touted and this quarter is much worse.
Trump has backed off on copper tariffs.
The United States will impose a 50 per cent tariff on copper pipes and wiring, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, but details of the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions that were expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes.
Trump also announced a “deal” with S Korea for 15% tariffs.
I’m not surprised, but I do wonder if anyone in his family or anyone in his administration is profiting off all of this whipsawing?
Inquiring minds want to know.
$36.6T debt/ $30,33T GDP = 1.20. Social Security trust fund, Fed bonds and bills…
are not traded on the open market. That’s gov IOU to the Fed and to SS. Did the Fed raid
itself in 2020: no.
take a break for a week, a little bit of R/R, take good care of yourself mish
Photographs of blooming red and yellow cacti 🌵 blossoms help immensely. Especially when the background is a pleasant mountain 🏔️ range and a clear sky. Gregorian Chant is helpful too.
Remembering that: “All life is suffering.” Also takes the edge off. So returning to peace. Joy. Compassion. Rest. Diffuses all suffering.
Take some time for yourself. Look inward. Heal yourself. “The World “ 🌎 is getting to you Mish. Let it go. Go enjoy the cacti blossoms. Be well.
Hope you get better. If you miss some posts we’ll all get over it. Take care
just guessing the big import number was front running tariffs?
Apologies for the delays in these reports. I have had an infection in the sac around my heart for a month, and am often very tired. I slept 20 hours the other day.
I think some of the meds may be making me tired.
Hope you’re feeling better soon. Rest should help!
If anything – I am getting too much rest. I have two issues, an infection and massive headaches.
Saw a chiropractor last Friday for x-rays, then on Monday staring a series of 1 years worth of adjustments.
Pleased to report reduced headaches already.
Why are you apologizing?!?!? Take care of yourself buddy. Having you around with delayed posts is better than not having you around at all. I’m sure your wife would agree. Rest, you’ve certainly earned it.
Eat broccoli with EVOO, yogurt, turmeric and black pepper. Slow down. I need u to fight the dems idiots. Talk to Dr Ralph Moss.
Don’t drink pinot noir from Niagara Falls wineries, the best in the world,
for resveratrol
Health update, Mish?
Does your desk have a treadmill underneath, so you can walk and research? Want product suggestions?
Thanks
After the operation, I did physical therapy and in a few weeks seemed fully recovered.
I even did a 10-mile hike.
Then wham something happened on July 3. Not much strength since. But noticing small improvements in strength last 2 days.
Waiting for Doctor to Ok physical therapy again.
I know the feeling.
Hope you recover fully, and soon. It is difficult to have the patience to wait for your body to heal when you are so used to being physically active.
Sorry to hear, Mish. It sounds concerning. My first thoughts are eating as healthy as possible, such as oatmeal and fruit for breakfast, drinking plenty of water, plenty of vegetables for/with supper. if not enough energy for light exercise, then maybe some stretching. And prayer always helps. We enjoy your reports but put your health first. Hope you start feeling better.