The BEA revised its estimate of GDP from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent in 2025 Q3.
The BEA reports Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Updated Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised).
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases of 5.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries and 3.6 percent for private goods-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.3 percent in real value added for government.
Quarter-Over-Quarter GDP
- Real GDP: 4.4 percent
- Real Final Sales: 4.5 percent
- Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.8 percent
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.9 percent
- Real Gross Domestic Income GDI: 2.4 percent
The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
The Fed closely watches Real Final Private Domestic Sales which is 1.5 percentage points lower than headline GDP.
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) was 2.4 percent. GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing.
Income from sales should match value of products sold. This has been an ongoing discrepancy.
Percentage Point Contributions to GDP
Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Detail
- PCE Services: 1.7 PP
- PCE Goods: 0.6 PP
- Government: 0.4 PP
- Residential Investment: -0.3 PP
- Nonresidential Investment: 0.4 PP
- CIPI: -0.1 PP
- Exports: 1.0 PP
- Imports 0.6 PP
PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures.
CIPI stands for Change in Private Inventory. This is the difference between GDP and Real Final Sales in the lead chart.
Imports neither add nor subtract from GDP by definition (D meaning domestic). However, the BEA assumes all sales are domestic so it adjusts by the dollar amount of imports.
I wish the BEA would point this out, but Imports do not subtract from GDP. They have no impact at all.
That said, the extremely wild gyrations of imports in 2025 Q1 and Q2 have mostly calmed down.
Contributions to GDP by Industry Group 2025 Q3
Upcoming Improvements to the GDP News Release
BEA’s ongoing modernization and streamlining of news release packages will include improvements to the GDP news release beginning with the advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 20, 2026. The news release text will be modified to include links to BEA’s online Interactive Data Tables. News release tables in PDF or Excel format will no longer be provided beginning with the third estimate on April 9, 2026. This change will reduce duplication, increase efficiency, and point users directly to the most complete data.
As I read it, the BEA will stop producing charts. Since I generally produce my own charts (the preceding chart is an exception), that improvement does not impact me.
I will have many charts of how AI impacted GDP coming out shortly.
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Looking ahead, expect a huge surge in PCE inflation.
January 22, 2026: Real Spending Has Exceeded Real Income for Seven Straight Months
Real personal income peaked in April of 2025. Spending continues unabated.
And PCE is what’s driving GDP.
And this economic growth is occurring with a bozo for a president. Just think what it could be and how it greatly contribute to the k-shaped economy with a non-deranged head of state!
And people wonder why the global dollar index has fallen by 15% over the past year. The nominal GDP numbers are shameful, all due to fake dollar printing via fake fiscal stimulus and fake credit availability to anyone and everyone. Especially Somalis, apparently.
A higher GDP can be shown with a weak Currency in that Currency-terms.
Economics is your strong suit, because you not only understand data but how it is derived too.
GDP 3rd qtr 2025 $24,026.8 billion and 2nd qtr 2025 $23,771.0 billion for a qtr over qtr increase of 1.1% (4.4% annualized) and a dollar change of $275.8 billion. The change year over year is 2.4%, which does not look as rosy. The fourth quarter may be telling as it will include the partial government shutdown and early effects of the deportation emphasis.
Yes, this is a good print, but it may be an outlier given the year over year performance and potential economic activity prior the partial shutdown and full impacts of tariffs yet to be felt throughout the economy.
And with the BEA starting to revise past reports higher, the Federal Reserve will be interpreting present reports as higher than reported when deciding on rate changes.
Confused… current dollar gdp +8.3%. “real” gdp +4.4% … yet none of the various price deflators higher than 3.4%?
Gold $4,955 & Silver $100.
Amazing how all the two-anglo-name accounts that you’ve never seen before but urge Mish to only cover economics or rant about how great Russia is never seem to show up in any comment section except when Mish criticizes Trump!
What’s your thoughts on “Coinbase Global”? Another newbie that seems to have legs. I have been trying to get past the thought, that your investment could simply go Poof!
I’ll admit that I don’t comprehend everything Mish writes about economics. Geopolitics and war is kind of a big deal. People have strong opinions about it – which is why those articles get a lot of comments. The ones urging Mish to stick to economics make no sense to me.
Geo-politics has a very high impact on economy.For example the Sanction s on Russia has adversely affected Eurozone economy.Some tariffs on buyers [ from Russia ] with the intention of putting pressure on the latter,has had a very high effect on some countries.
What he might do is to tag his posts and let peoples filter it.
Reasonable Nazi Bots
good work. you seem like you watched “the americans” series on russian spies and have an aptitude for espionage. i’d report them to the NSA asap. do i need to /sarcasm
Everybody they don’t agree with has to be a “bot”. It’s like the Pauline Kael not-actual “quote”: ‘I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.’
I find it fascinating how some of you guys are so unaware of so many events that I’ve read about numerous times over the last few years. It’s a really interesting peek into the information silos that people get caught in.
Are you not aware of Russian web brigades? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades
Did you not hear about the recent scandal when Twitter attached visible geolocation tags to accounts and it was discovered that dozens of high profile, popular accounts promoting right wing policies and politicians in the US were actually posting from Russia and other overseas locations?
Anytime Mish overtly criticizes Trump or especially Russia, suddenly a bunch of random accounts you’ve never heard of before turn up, all saying more or lesser exact same things. They all use a first last name convention for account names with anglo sounding names. Meanwhile none of the regulars here use names like that. It makes no sense! We all value privacy and so what sense does that first last name convention make?
If you guys fall for this, you are definitely at risk of falling for other scams!
I’m going to start posting as Geoffrey Covington or something.
What are you talking about? Really?
This is an economics blog as well…
The day begins with the continuing appreciation of gold and silver. Gold is now challenging $5,000 and Silver $100.
This is not normal and indicates an accelerating move into PM’s from fiat currencies.
For Gold? The weaponization of banking through sanctions is one component and constant threats against our neighbors and allies is taking an additional toll.
For Silver? China is building a game changing amount of solar power generation and the demand for physical silver has exploded. As outrageous as it sounds I think there is little resistance to prices as high as $500 per ounce.
Dividends paid by mining companies should be rising as their cashflows have exploded due to increasing margins. Additionally, the valuation of ore in the ground as a corporate asset will have to be accounted for. Write up’s of asset values appear to be inevitable.
Financial managers have ignored this asset for decades and most investors have NO Exposure to the sector. I have been heavily into the miners for about two and a half years and the results are startlingly positive.
What is going on in the thinking of other members and readers in the assessment of this spike in PM prices? Does this parabolic move have legs or is it exhausted?
Gold has always had moves up and down, but now as an investment tool, it is changing its value ownership. Gold now gets manipulated by the “Players of Gold” and as players, they look for the largest quickest dump, and as many as possible, to drive the price back down.
Now what’s needed for cash gets paid, and the rest goes back into investing in Gold again, but at half the price they just received for it. Await another self created opportunity, when the time is right, and they would know, they sell it all off once again. I guess the slogan “Only the Rich get Richer” comes into play when discussing gold, oh and the holders that lost out, you were warned…
I don’t follow Silver, nearly as closely as Gold, but I can see its value is beyond monetary, unlike Gold, other than jewelry for the most part. Silver has always been in the electrical field, but now has much more uses than ever before. It may be as simple as that, and the price will move due to manufacturing usage and not from investments perhaps? It has much more uses than Gold Now!!
Congrats on your mining investments! You mentioned that awhile back, and I looked into it a bit. I should not have decided to sit and watch, and maybe thrown something at it. Great Call!!
I’ve been pounding the table a bit on this one and think this sector has legs. My rationale is the selling of US equities, debt and treasuries plus the transfer of those assets into alternative investments. As an example, the Brazilian stock market is up 10% in the last two weeks and the gold and silver market have absolutely caught a bid.
As with all things that go parabolic the risks to the downside are outsized as well.
I did take some PAAS call options off the table today as silver hit $100 given the growing imbalance within my portfolio. IMO, no market runs like this with out corrections? Psychological milestones like a round number of $100 was a target sell point given history.
paas was a great call. i took that advice. miners have been great to me over the decades. but the actual money in hand, meaning the gold and silver and copper one ounce coins are fungible money that a man can purchase a lunch or build a house anywhere on planet. i’ve been doing that for decades. the amerikan born natives seem the most ignorant of this, but when dealing with immigrants from mexico, china, india or russia all those items will be exchanged for real money. i used to always ask my mexican crew of workers for construction, pool men, yard men if they wanted a check, some benjamins or oro or plata. now copper is exchanged for items………in immigrant places IN amerika. forget in italy or spain or mexico or far east. those folks all understand what money is. and many also know what a crumbling evil empire also looks like. thanks frosty. i enjoy your wisdom and knowledge and willing to share a very great deal. there are some very wise people on this blog. including old mish. the pub owner where we all gather and discuss.
You are welcome. PAAS was my silver mining choice simply because I knew some of the mines and saw it as undervalued. I was buying out of the money leap options as speculative buys last summer because of the fourth year of global inventory drawdowns and thinking that there would be massive solar farms developed in the southwest to power AI facilities. Solar got bitch slapped here in the states, but China has increased its solar generation capacity by 50% of total US power generation in the last year and may win the AI race because of their solar power generation program. They are buying all the silver they can without blowing up the market entirely.
Thank you for your global perspectives as well. Your life experience is impressive!
I’m American so I do not share your “Evil Empire” perspective given how many decent and empathetic Americans I know. I do understand your perspective having read books like Confessions of an Economic Hit Man and others. Our war mongering and predatory banking activities shock me as well.
Salute’
when empires collapse from financial or warfare overeach, currency to gold goes parabalic. the dow/gold ratio for the past century is a good gauge of how gold behaves in very peaceful times in the homeland. pearl harbor was an outpost. wtc on 9.11.01 was a warning shot to anyone cognizant that the empire was collapsing……….this stuff takes decads. the dow/gold today is now under 10. in 1980 and 1932 she went to 1 and 2. she can go to .0001 of 1 if the USSR is a gauge.