Please consider the BLS’ Real Earnings Report for January 2019.
All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.
Production and Nonsupervisory Employees
Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increased 0.2 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Real average weekly earnings increased 0.2 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in average weekly hours.
Assuming You Believe the CPI
Early today, following the CPI release, I noted CPI Flat 3rd Consecutive Month, Year-Over-Year Down 3rd Month.
Year Over Year Prices
- All Items: +1.6%
- All Items Except Food and Energy: +2.2%
- Food +1.6%
- All Energy Items: -4.8%
- Gasoline: -10.1%
- New Vehicles: +0.0%
- Used Vehicles: +1.6%
- Apparel: +0.1%
- Shelter: +3.2%
- Transportation Services: +2.0%
- Medical Care Commodities: -0.3%
- Medical Care Services: +2.4%
Your results will vary, and possibly greatly, especially those who buy their own heal care policies. But also check out shelter, which does not reflect actual home prices.
Anyone seeking to buy a home knows the shelter index is a flat out joke.
Real Average Hourly Earnings 2006-Present
To provide a better long-term picture, I put that chart together by subtracting the appropriate CPI from average hourly earnings.
The CPI deflator is CPI-U for everyone and CPI-W for production and nonsupervisory workers.
Short Synopsis
Prices that cannot be accurately measured in the first place are further hedonically modified to provide some sort of average as if that makes any sense.
In terms of wages, it’s not the average that matters but the median. We get those numbers on a two-year lag.
Realistically, most of this is a joke.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
all considered, I think these government stats have been marketing propaganda for quite a while now.
If it weren’t for the illegals….
The CPI is probably still a little high, but fairly close. I still prefer the GDP deflator, which is simpler, and doesn’t need all the adjustment. The fact that real wages are up is why Trump’s core supporters still support him.
Do you think any Trump supporters are actually seeing their wages increase? Or do you think it’s a matter of their believing what they are told?
With unemployment at the lowest levels in a long time, it would be expected that wages would be rising. Yes, I think Trump supporters and Trump haters are both seeing wage increases.
I’m neither a Trump supporter nor a hater and my wages are down 100% YoY. It is a recession in our household with no end in sight.
Wages are increasing just ask anyone employing someone with a skill. This stuff just like the propaganda CPI numbers dispensed from the politburo are a flat out joke. The media are the govt’s useful idiots. I heard Maria Bartaromo ask an “expert guest” on the show when the CPI was released as to what his explanation was for the fact that people were complaining of widespread price increases not jiving with published cpi.. He ignored the question completely.
Much worse than a joke, really.
A totalitarian oligarchy lying through its teeth.