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The BLS reports the CPI for all items rose 0.1% in June, up 2.9% over the last 12 months. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June (SA); up 2.3 percent over the year (NSA).

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Real Wages

Even if one accepts the BLS CPI numbers, Real Wages are not keeping up.

Production and Supervisory Workers

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  • From June 2017 to June 2018, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted.
  • Combining the change in real average hourly earnings with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek resulted in no change to real average weekly earnings over this period.
  • Production and supervisory workers make 2 cents less per hour than a year ago.
  • Look at the bright side. That's up a penny from last month. And by working more hours, they get the same pay.

All Workers

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All workers are doing better. They are no worse off than last year but no better either.

Averages vs Median

Averages are a poor way of looking at things. Pay increases are slanted towards the top end. The median worker in both classes is way underwater from a year ago.

Those who are in school or have private medical insurance, and those who are looking to buy a home are getting killed by the Fed's inflationary policies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock